Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Scottie Scheffler won a tournament. This wasn’t just any tournament; Scheffler brought home Olympic Gold on top of a victory at Le Golf National. That’s all in the rearview as the PGA Tour takes one last crack at its regular season, a familiar setting at the Wyndham Championship. It’s familiar to us also in layout and approach, and we see another shorter course designed to test accuracy over length — take that into account when looking at Wyndham Championship first-round leaders.
As expected, there is massive letdown from both the Olympics and drain of the regular season. Most of the top names on tour are gearing up for the FedEx race, as evident by Sungjae Im being the lone favorite south of 20-1. This tournament has provided plenty of longer-range winners, yet it becomes increasingly easier to handicap each year.
The main reason is carryover from course history. We tend to look at this trend on smaller or shot-shaping courses rather than the bomber’s paradise. In the case of Greensboro, N.C., we have a chance to identify some of the usual suspects. Look no further than the anomaly that is Webb Simpson, who had no top-20s last year or this year yet still held his dominant stretch of made cuts and top finishes.
The course matters. So does being able to knock down mid-range irons and a couple of putts on these Donald Ross Bermuda greens. There’s one thing that matters most, and that’s the path to winning.
Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Picks
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The Keys To The Kingdom
The “key” to this kingdom at Sedgewick Country Club is a wedge. That’s truly it. We could just leave the rest of this blank and have you watch that awesome video below on our dominant PGA Sims Tool. There is nothing more important this week than a golfer’s ability to handle their wedges. Shorter par 4’s will demand tight accuracy for second shots as they navigate through narrow fairways and undulated greens. The relief point — where golfers can turn around and attack the course — is the approach.
We will absolutely target the best wedge players on tour currently in this field. That’s far from the only thing we look at for a first-round leader, as driving accuracy weighs heavily on our card. These are tight fairways — like we just saw in the Olympics — that require as much accuracy dialed in off the tee as it does from 115 yards. The reward is setting up a scoring chance from the fairway with a clean wedge or higher iron; hitting out of the rough will be nearly impossible.
The rough makes it incredibly difficult and is a primary defense for this course. The Wyndham requires accuracy off the tee because of the narrow fairways, but golfers are keener to avoid the rough. Sedgewick plays increasingly more difficult from the rough than the fairway, almost double the difficulty. We want accurate golfers from tee to green.
Wyndham Championship First-Round Leader Picks
Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Picks: Aaron Rai (+4900 at FanDuel)
As was the case last week with both of our selections, I’d be shocked if Aaron Rai doesn’t work himself into the top 10 for the first round. Rai has been dialed in, as the Open Championship snapped a streak of three straight finishes inside the top 10. Add a 19th at the US Open and 14th at the RBC Canadian, and that’s five straight finishes inside the top 20. Rai is consistently gaining off approach shots, outside of one of those events in the Scottish Open. Otherwise, Rai is thriving in accuracy situations over those that demand length.
He’s losing strokes off his distance each week, but it’s not penalizing him. In fact, it has been quite the opposite. Mixing in a wedge-heavy course like Sedgefield has Rai even more appealing at 65-1. As expected, he’s top 10 in the current field in strokes gained off approach shots. This is a fantastic fit for Rai, who has been gaining in key areas to success in Greensboro. With one more look at this course fit, we see Rai is right at the top in driving accuracy and fairways gained.
Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Picks: Jhonattan Vegas (+8000 at Bet365)
The 3M Open winner is another good course fit. Jhonattan Vegas is an 80-1 longshot first-round leader play, but he should play far better than his number. Vegas heads to Sedgefield top 10 in the field in two key categories we discussed above with Rai. Vegas should be in contention right from the start, as he’s one of the top iron players — specifically on approach shots. We also see him top 10 in strokes gained off the tee, which holds more weight on a shorter course that demands consistent wedge play and putting.
The only true concern in getting Vegas hot is his putter. Being able to survive a round is one thing; hitting around or past tough spots on the greens comes from accuracy. That might be enough to navigate and ultimately prove successful. Much like Rai, both golfers fared well at the Rocket Mortgage, a similar course in comparison. In a field lacking any true star power, it makes little sense how Vegas comes in at 80-1.
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