With our Cognizant Classic DFS picks, we continue our PGA DFS picks series with the starting of the Florida swing. To me, this event is the beginning of our march towards the Masters. This is my favorite tournament stretch of the year, filled with legendary tournaments hosted at incredible golf courses. Over the next 6 weeks, we’ll have tournaments at Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, Augusta National, and PGA National. The latter of which will play host to this week’s Cognizant Classic.
Course Preview
PGA National is a par 71, measuring in at 7,165 yards. Although it’s been made a tad easier the last couple of years, it’s still an extremely challenging test. With water coming into play on 15 of its 18 holes, double bogey or worse lurks on every wayward shot. Tee shots avoiding the water will still have to navigate the plethora of strategically placed bunkers, which will be a challenge both off the tee and on approach into the greens.
The Bermuda greens are fast and challenging, adding to the overall difficulty of the course. I’ll be looking for pure ball strikers who have a good history putting on Bermuda greens and a good history at PGA National.
Using the Stokastic PGA Sims Tool, I’ve highlighted the top plays for this week below. Our hole-by-hole simulations evaluate each golfer’s potential outcome, combined with PGA DFS projections. By running simulations of lineups tens of thousands of times, we can pinpoint the top plays.
Naturally, the players who appear most frequently in the highest-ROI lineups are the ones I focus on for my portfolio. The Sims Tool is crucial to my weekly DFS strategy, and I highly recommend it for anyone looking to advance their DFS game.
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Let’s dive into the core players I will be building my lineups around this week on DraftKings.
PGA DFS Picks: Cognizant Classic DFS Picks & Core Plays
PGA DFS Picks; Cognizant Classic DFS Picks: Sepp Straka – $9,400
Straka came out of the gates blistering hot to start 2025, with four finishes inside the top 15, including a win at the American Express in January. This week, we come back to an event he’s had great success at in his career. In five total starts, Straka has two top 5 finishes, including a win in 2022.
Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks inside the top 7 in this field in strokes gained on approach, as well as birdie or better percentage. He did miss the cut in his last outing at the Genesis, which may keep some people away. I’m not concerned and will be riding Straka at a heavy clip this week.
Denny McCarthy – $9,300
McCarthy has been playing some excellent golf over the last 6 months or so. His last missed cut came in July of last year, and since then, he has six finishes inside the top 26, including two top 10s. His most recent top 10 came at Genesis, where he gained 3.5 strokes on approach and 3 strokes putting against a loaded field on his way to an impressive 5th place finish.
He’s riding nice momentum into this week. As one of the best putters in the world, he should be able to take advantage of the fast and difficult greens. His history at this event hasn’t been ideal, but he did finish 3rd here back in 2021. Given his current form and ability to lap the field in putting, I like how he sets up this week.
PGA DFS Picks; Cognizant Classic DFS Picks: Luke Clanton – $7,700
Clanton burst onto the scene last year with a stretch of incredibly impressive results. Across his first eight PGA Tour starts, he had four finishes inside the top 10 and only one missed cut. As one of the best collegiate golfers in the world, his unique blend of distance and accuracy off the tee is a perfect match for the demands of PGA National.
This year at Waste Management, he missed the cut by a single stroke, which cost him an opportunity to earn his PGA Tour card. In his first appearance since, I’m expecting a nice bounce-back week. I think there’s a real chance he’s in contention down the stretch Sunday to win this event.
GPP Flier – Billy Horschel – $7,900
Horschel is one of those players who has historically played very well through the Florida swing. For whatever reason, his game appears to peak right around this time. His comfort on Bermuda greens and the courses drives a lot of his success. His history in this event is vast. Through 11 starts, he has 4 finishes inside the top 16 and has made the cut here in six of his last seven tries.
The start of 2025 has been a mixed bag of results, highlighted by a 9th place finish at the elevated AT&T Pebble Beach event earlier this month. His irons appear to be in great shape, as he’s gained strokes on approach in five straight events. The combination of elite Bermuda putting, decent iron play, and nice familiarity with the course is enough to put him in the GPP flier conversation at a single-digit ownership projection this week.
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