With our Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS picks, we continue our PGA DFS series and the Florida Swing, making its second stop. This week’s event takes place in Orlando, Florida, at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. The 72-player field will face a tough test with Bay Hill’s long fairways and fast greens. Let’s get into my DFS picks and core plays for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Course Preview
Bay Hill is a par 72, stretching nearly 7,500 yards, with Bermudagrass greens and water hazards in play on nine holes. While the greens are fairly large, they run fast and are difficult to hit in regulation. The thick rough lining the fairways adds another layer of challenge, making precision off the tee crucial.
Designed by Arnold Palmer, Bay Hill ranked as the 10th-hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2024, with a scoring average of 72.3. Scottie Scheffler claimed victory last year at -15, while the previous four winning scores were -9, -5, -11, and -4. This course is no joke – and the potential weather conditions won’t make it any easier. Early Thursday morning will bring strong winds up to 15 MPH, gradually calming as the day progresses. Friday and Saturday look clear, but Sunday may see some precipitation along with double-digit winds.
Given these factors, I’ll be prioritizing Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermudagrass), and Bogey Avoidance.
Using the Stokastic PGA Sims Tool, I’ve highlighted the top plays for this week below. Our hole-by-hole simulations evaluate each golfer’s potential outcome, combined with PGA DFS projections. By running simulations of lineups tens of thousands of times, we can pinpoint the top plays. Naturally, the players who appear most frequently in the highest-ROI lineups are the ones I focus on for my portfolio. The Sims Tool is crucial to my weekly DFS strategy, and I highly recommend it for anyone looking to advance their DFS game.
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Let’s dive into the core players I will be building my lineups around this week on DraftKings.
PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Picks & Core Plays
PGA DFS Picks; Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Core Plays: Scottie Scheffler – $12,000
Bold move picking the best golfer in the world. I know, I know—but it’s nearly impossible to ignore Scheffler in this spot. I love him, our sims love him, and he clearly loves this course, too. He’s played 16 rounds at Bay Hill, winning twice (’22, ’24) and finishing T-4 and T-15.
His true strokes gained at Bay Hill is +3.35, leading the upcoming field by a solid margin. Yes, he’s expensive and will be a popular choice, but even with that in mind, our simulations still show heavy exposure to him in the highest-ROI lineups.
This course demands a lot from players, and there’s no one better equipped to handle those challenges than the world’s No. 1.
Xander Schauffele – $10,100
Schauffele is another chalky, expensive option, but he’s one I’m particularly bullish on – and our simulations agree. He’s played 12 rounds at Bay Hill, with finishes of T-24, T-25, and T-39. His true strokes gained at the course is +1.14.
Over his last 36 rounds, compared to the upcoming field, Schauffele ranks 4th in total strokes gained, 6th in SG: Tee to Green, 9th in SG: Approach, 13th in SG: Putting, and 9th in driving distance.
Rory McIlroy was a tempting alternative, but by selecting Schauffele, we can save some money and gain leverage against the field.
PGA DFS Picks; Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Core Plays: Viktor Hovland – $8,300
Hovland brings plenty of experience to Bay Hill, having logged 24 rounds with a +1.38 true strokes gained mark during that stretch. Over the last three years, he’s finished T-2, T-10, and T-36, and he’s never missed a cut in the six tournaments he’s played here.
However, his recent performance over the past 36 rounds has been a bit underwhelming. Among this field, Hovland ranks 29th in SG: Approach, 32nd in SG: Putting, and 38th in Total Strokes Gained. His driving distance remains solid, though, ranking 17th.
While those numbers don’t necessarily make Hovland stand out, it’s important to note that we’re getting him at a bargain. Last year, he had the third-shortest odds to win this event, but due to his recent struggles, his price has dropped. This provides an opportunity to include him in more of our lineups. He’s a golfer with a strong track record here who may be flying under the radar.
GPP Flier – Austin Eckroat – $6,200
Austin Eckroat could be one of the best values in this tournament. He’s only played at Bay Hill once, finishing T-36 last year with a score of +2. However, his true strokes gained came out to +0.63, and his game seems well-suited for this type of environment, especially with the added experience this time around.
Last year, Eckroat finished 8th in total driving. While his distance isn’t necessarily eye-popping, his accuracy is a key strength that can help him thrive in this setting. Additionally, his putting has shown steady improvement over the past few months. As a flier option, our simulations are giving him significant exposure and given his price and potential, it’s easy to see why.
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