Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
| Russell Henley | -2.02 | 11 | 1856 |
| Shane Lowry | -1.99 | 15 | 1852 |
| Daniel Berger | -1.67 | 38 | 1811 |
| Sungjae Im | -1.85 | 18 | 1834 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.72 | 22 | 1817 |
| Sepp Straka | -1.78 | 31 | 1824 |
| Denny McCarthy | -1.76 | 20 | 1822 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.65 | 43 | 1809 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.44 | 66 | 1782 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.35 | 64 | 1770 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.64 | 34 | 1807 |
| Cameron Young | -1.44 | 74 | 1781 |
| Max Greyserman | -1.59 | 26 | 1801 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.35 | 82 | 1771 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.56 | 41 | 1797 |
| Michael Kim | -1.41 | 47 | 1778 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.49 | 53 | 1788 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.34 | 69 | 1769 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.38 | 54 | 1775 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.44 | 50 | 1782 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.47 | 48 | 1785 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.25 | 87 | 1757 |
| J.J. Spaun | -1.41 | 46 | 1778 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.49 | 35 | 1788 |
| Luke Clanton | -1.37 | 16 | 1774 |
| Brian Harman | -1.46 | 39 | 1784 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.28 | 62 | 1762 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.38 | 70 | 1775 |
| Gary Woodland | -1.17 | 75 | 1748 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -1.18 | 72 | 1750 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.35 | 49 | 1770 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.18 | 76 | 1749 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -1.29 | 89 | 1763 |
| Harry Hall | -1.34 | 52 | 1769 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.24 | 60 | 1756 |
| Seamus Power | -1.25 | 61 | 1758 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.04 | 102 | 1731 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.23 | 58 | 1755 |
| Ryan Gerard | -1.27 | 1,000 | 1760 |
| Jake Knapp | -0.98 | 113 | 1724 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | -1.04 | 1,000 | 1731 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -0.98 | 85 | 1724 |
| Eric Cole | -1.08 | 78 | 1737 |
| Brian Campbell | -1.09 | 1,000 | 1737 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.24 | 68 | 1757 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.16 | 67 | 1746 |
| C.T. Pan | -1.14 | 83 | 1744 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -1.09 | 123 | 1738 |
| Kevin Roy | -1.07 | 121 | 1736 |
| Pierceson Coody | -0.53 | 169 | 1666 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | -0.76 | 125 | 1695 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.02 | 84 | 1729 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.83 | 122 | 1705 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -0.91 | 1714 | |
| Greyson Sigg | -1.07 | 91 | 1735 |
| Ryan Fox | -0.98 | 98 | 1724 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.91 | 109 | 1714 |
| Matt Kuchar | -0.93 | 73 | 1718 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.88 | 103 | 1711 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.07 | 88 | 1735 |
| Joe Highsmith | -1.12 | 65 | 1741 |
| Chan Kim | -0.97 | 100 | 1723 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.65 | 137 | 1682 |
| Mac Meissner | -0.93 | 104 | 1717 |
| Adam Svensson | -1.07 | 81 | 1735 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -0.77 | 86 | 1697 |
| Jesper Svensson | -0.99 | 1,000 | 1725 |
| Justin Lower | -0.95 | 79 | 1720 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.07 | 63 | 1735 |
| Kris Ventura | -0.91 | 1,000 | 1715 |
| Matt Wallace | -1.00 | 108 | 1726 |
| Victor Perez | -0.69 | 94 | 1687 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.73 | 105 | 1692 |
| Antoine Rozner | -0.92 | 1,000 | 1716 |
| Quade Cummins | -0.76 | 1696 | |
| Ricky Castillo | -0.70 | 1688 | |
| Matteo Manassero | -0.77 | 1,000 | 1697 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -0.98 | 77 | 1723 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.84 | 107 | 1705 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.87 | 99 | 1709 |
| Max McGreevy | -0.72 | 162 | 1690 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.85 | 97 | 1707 |
| Alejandro Tosti | -0.45 | 171 | 1656 |
| Ben Martin | -0.60 | 139 | 1676 |
| Frankie Capan | -0.70 | 1,000 | 1688 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -0.88 | 96 | 1710 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.44 | 114 | 1656 |
| Jackson Suber | -0.48 | 1,000 | 1660 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.48 | 149 | 1660 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.65 | 127 | 1682 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.39 | 144 | 1649 |
| Matthew McCarty | -0.63 | 1,000 | 1680 |
| Rico Hoey | -0.80 | 112 | 1701 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.59 | 166 | 1674 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.71 | 131 | 1689 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.62 | 115 | 1678 |
| Thriston Lawrence | -0.58 | 1,000 | 1673 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.70 | 120 | 1688 |
| Carson Young | -0.68 | 110 | 1686 |
| Steven Fisk | -0.60 | 1,000 | 1675 |
| Matthieu Pavon | -0.62 | 1,000 | 1678 |
| Vincent Norrman | -0.36 | 167 | 1646 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.66 | 119 | 1683 |
| Luke List | -0.46 | 130 | 1657 |
| Danny Willett | -0.23 | 1629 | |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.07 | 180 | 1591 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.33 | 151 | 1641 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.60 | 128 | 1676 |
| Will Gordon | -0.42 | 155 | 1653 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.41 | 140 | 1651 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -0.54 | 126 | 1668 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | -0.40 | 1650 | |
| Francesco Molinari | -0.18 | 163 | 1622 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.24 | 133 | 1630 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.33 | 146 | 1641 |
| David Skinns | 0.15 | 181 | 1580 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.26 | 157 | 1632 |
| Tim Widing | -0.07 | 1609 | |
| Harry Higgs | -0.07 | 196 | 1608 |
| Davis Riley | 0.32 | 189 | 1560 |
| David Lipsky | -0.21 | 154 | 1626 |
| Thomas Rosenmueller | -0.09 | 1,000 | 1611 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.35 | 176 | 1555 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.32 | 143 | 1640 |
| William Mouw | -0.23 | 1,000 | 1629 |
| Will Chandler | -0.09 | 1,000 | 1611 |
| Paul Waring | -0.07 | 1609 | |
| Peter Malnati | 0.26 | 187 | 1567 |
| Ryan Palmer | 0.73 | 195 | 1507 |
| Paul Peterson | 0.83 | 1,000 | 1494 |
| Taylor Dickson | 0.38 | 1,000 | 1551 |
| Cristobal Del Solar | 0.59 | 1,000 | 1525 |
| Matthew Riedel | 0.59 | 1,000 | 1525 |
| Karl Vilips | 0.42 | 1,000 | 1546 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.39 | 184 | 1550 |
| Braden Thornberry | 0.46 | 1,000 | 1541 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.54 | 175 | 1531 |
| Luke Donald | 1.12 | 1457 | |
| Kevin Velo | 0.40 | 1,000 | 1549 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.18 | 205 | 1450 |
| Justin Hicks | 1.23 | 1,000 | 1444 |
| Ben Polland | 1.25 | 1,000 | 1442 |
| Patrick Sheehan | 1.24 | 1,000 | 1442 |
| Bo Hoag | 1.23 | 1444 | |
| Jeremy Paul | 1.24 | 1,000 | 1442 |
| Mason Andersen | 1.24 | 1,000 | 1442 |
Power Rankings
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
| Justin Thomas | -2.51 | 6 | 1917 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.46 | 8 | 1912 |
| Daniel Berger | -1.69 | 38 | 1813 |
| Viktor Hovland | -1.99 | 21 | 1852 |
| Rory McIlroy | -2.76 | 4 | 1949 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.88 | 1 | 2091 |
| Shane Lowry | -2.12 | 15 | 1867 |
| Sam Burns | -2.12 | 14 | 1868 |
| Xander Schauffele | -3.16 | 2 | 1999 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | -2.07 | 17 | 1862 |
| Russell Henley | -2.33 | 11 | 1895 |
| Collin Morikawa | -2.92 | 3 | 1970 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.50 | 7 | 1916 |
| Sungjae Im | -2.07 | 18 | 1862 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.67 | 40 | 1811 |
| Cameron Young | -1.18 | 74 | 1749 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.27 | 151 | 1634 |
| Corey Conners | -1.91 | 27 | 1841 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.57 | 48 | 1798 |
| Seamus Power | -1.32 | 61 | 1767 |
| Alex Noren | -1.94 | 24 | 1846 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.86 | 29 | 1835 |
| Max Homa | -0.98 | 93 | 1723 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.64 | 119 | 1680 |
| Adam Scott | -2.42 | 9 | 1906 |
| Tony Finau | -2.06 | 19 | 1860 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.08 | 84 | 1737 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.33 | 58 | 1768 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.09 | 82 | 1738 |
| Keegan Bradley | -1.77 | 33 | 1824 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.27 | 66 | 1760 |
| Maverick McNealy | -2.14 | 13 | 1871 |
| Harris English | -1.50 | 51 | 1790 |
| Chris Kirk | -0.86 | 102 | 1709 |
| Brian Harman | -1.68 | 39 | 1812 |
| Harry Hall | -1.47 | 52 | 1786 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.36 | 10 | 1898 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.44 | 140 | 1655 |
| Robert MacIntyre | -2.26 | 12 | 1886 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.97 | 95 | 1722 |
| Russell Knox | 0.05 | 174 | 1593 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.53 | 49 | 1793 |
| Gary Woodland | -1.18 | 75 | 1749 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.26 | 67 | 1759 |
| Jason Day | -1.61 | 45 | 1803 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.30 | 150 | 1638 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -1.23 | 72 | 1755 |
| Justin Rose | -1.33 | 59 | 1768 |
| Luke List | -0.54 | 130 | 1668 |
| Denny McCarthy | -2.01 | 20 | 1855 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.28 | 205 | 1438 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.80 | 109 | 1701 |
| Erik van Rooyen | -0.58 | 125 | 1673 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.48 | 137 | 1661 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.95 | 22 | 1847 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.69 | 37 | 1813 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.82 | 107 | 1703 |
| Sepp Straka | -1.81 | 31 | 1829 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.19 | 73 | 1750 |
| Scott Stallings | -0.22 | 156 | 1627 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.26 | 68 | 1759 |
| Davis Riley | 0.42 | 189 | 1546 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.80 | 32 | 1828 |
| Aaron Rai | -1.94 | 23 | 1846 |
| Troy Merritt | 0.15 | 179 | 1580 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.65 | 42 | 1809 |
| Erik Barnes | 1.45 | 208 | 1416 |
| Cameron Davis | -1.23 | 71 | 1756 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.65 | 118 | 1681 |
| Martin Laird | -0.41 | 142 | 1651 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.47 | 54 | 1785 |
| Stewart Cink | -0.52 | 132 | 1665 |
| C.T. Pan | -1.09 | 83 | 1737 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.06 | 87 | 1734 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.24 | 70 | 1756 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.75 | 114 | 1694 |
| Adam Long | 0.28 | 183 | 1564 |
| Ryan Moore | -0.37 | 145 | 1647 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.06 | 175 | 1591 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.41 | 143 | 1651 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.40 | 144 | 1651 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.32 | 62 | 1766 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.73 | 35 | 1819 |
| Nick Taylor | -1.39 | 56 | 1775 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.25 | 69 | 1758 |
| Adam Svensson | -1.11 | 81 | 1740 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.32 | 60 | 1767 |
| Chan Kim | -0.88 | 100 | 1711 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.62 | 122 | 1678 |
| J.J. Spaun | -1.60 | 46 | 1803 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.36 | 146 | 1645 |
| Francesco Molinari | -0.09 | 163 | 1611 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.30 | 63 | 1765 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -0.57 | 126 | 1672 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.88 | 28 | 1837 |
| Ryan Palmer | 0.65 | 195 | 1517 |
| Greyson Sigg | -1.00 | 91 | 1726 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.83 | 105 | 1705 |
| Tyler Duncan | -0.01 | 170 | 1601 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.67 | 196 | 1515 |
| David Lipsky | -0.25 | 154 | 1631 |
| Austin Smotherman | -0.65 | 117 | 1682 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.12 | 177 | 1584 |
| Tom Kim | -1.72 | 36 | 1817 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.37 | 187 | 1552 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.72 | 115 | 1691 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.08 | 176 | 1589 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.64 | 44 | 1807 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.16 | 76 | 1747 |
| Matt Wallace | -0.82 | 108 | 1703 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.06 | 166 | 1607 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.28 | 64 | 1762 |
| Garrick Higgo | -0.67 | 116 | 1684 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.52 | 133 | 1665 |
| Kevin Tway | -0.58 | 124 | 1673 |
| James Hahn | -0.12 | 161 | 1615 |
| Roger Sloan | -0.02 | 168 | 1602 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.85 | 30 | 1834 |
| Justin Suh | -0.47 | 138 | 1659 |
| Cameron Champ | -0.18 | 159 | 1622 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.76 | 34 | 1822 |
| Padraig Harrington | -0.14 | 160 | 1618 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.63 | 120 | 1680 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.49 | 136 | 1662 |
| Kevin Chappell | -0.50 | 135 | 1663 |
| Josh Teater | 0.85 | 199 | 1492 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.21 | 180 | 1573 |
| Sean O'Hair | 0.54 | 194 | 1532 |
| Bill Haas | 0.84 | 198 | 1494 |
| Victor Perez | -0.97 | 94 | 1722 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.72 | 197 | 1508 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.80 | 111 | 1700 |
| Nick Watney | 1.72 | 211 | 1382 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.86 | 103 | 1708 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.43 | 55 | 1780 |
| Will Gordon | -0.22 | 155 | 1628 |
| Ben Martin | -0.45 | 139 | 1656 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.14 | 178 | 1582 |
| Ben Taylor | 0.86 | 200 | 1490 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 0.02 | 173 | 1597 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.57 | 127 | 1671 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.52 | 50 | 1792 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -0.27 | 152 | 1633 |
| Robby Shelton | -0.31 | 148 | 1639 |
| Wesley Bryan | -0.50 | 134 | 1663 |
| Paul Barjon | 1.36 | 206 | 1427 |
| Brandon Wu | -0.32 | 147 | 1640 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.56 | 128 | 1671 |
| Scott Gutschewski | 1.66 | 210 | 1390 |
| Max McGreevy | -0.12 | 162 | 1614 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0.92 | 202 | 1483 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.47 | 53 | 1786 |
| Chesson Hadley | -0.25 | 153 | 1631 |
| Justin Lower | -1.12 | 79 | 1741 |
| Austin Cook | 0.94 | 203 | 1480 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.28 | 184 | 1563 |
| Callum Tarren | 0.34 | 185 | 1557 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.52 | 131 | 1666 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.12 | 80 | 1741 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.19 | 157 | 1623 |
| Kelly Kraft | -0.87 | 101 | 1709 |
| Ryan Fox | -0.91 | 98 | 1715 |
| J.B. Holmes | 1.79 | 212 | 1373 |
| Martin Trainer | 1.15 | 204 | 1454 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.65 | 43 | 1809 |
| David Skinns | 0.23 | 181 | 1570 |
| Zac Blair | -0.43 | 141 | 1654 |
| Michael Kim | -1.59 | 47 | 1801 |
| Grayson Murray | -0.83 | 106 | 1705 |
| Jorge Campillo | -0.54 | 129 | 1668 |
| Cody Gribble | 1.56 | 209 | 1402 |
| Parker Coody | -0.06 | 165 | 1608 |
| Carson Young | -0.80 | 110 | 1701 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.31 | 149 | 1638 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -0.61 | 123 | 1677 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.95 | 97 | 1719 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -1.08 | 86 | 1736 |
| Alex Noren | -1.94 | 24 | 1846 |
| Carl Yuan | 0.36 | 186 | 1554 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.36 | 57 | 1772 |
| Kevin Roy | -0.63 | 121 | 1679 |
| Vincent Norrman | -0.05 | 167 | 1605 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.66 | 41 | 1810 |
| Eric Cole | -1.13 | 78 | 1743 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -1.08 | 85 | 1737 |
| Harrison Endycott | 0.46 | 191 | 1541 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.06 | 88 | 1733 |
| Tyson Alexander | 0.52 | 193 | 1534 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -1.05 | 89 | 1733 |
| Nick Dunlap | -0.99 | 92 | 1725 |
| Luke Clanton | -2.09 | 16 | 1864 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -0.96 | 96 | 1721 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.89 | 99 | 1713 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0.00 | 171 | 1600 |
| Mac Meissner | -0.84 | 104 | 1706 |
| Jake Knapp | -0.75 | 113 | 1695 |
| Max Greyserman | -1.91 | 26 | 1841 |
| Pierceson Coody | -0.01 | 169 | 1601 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -1.14 | 77 | 1744 |
| Trace Crowe | -0.18 | 158 | 1622 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.01 | 172 | 1599 |
| Kevin Dougherty | 0.40 | 188 | 1548 |
| Joe Highsmith | -1.27 | 65 | 1761 |
| Rico Hoey | -0.76 | 112 | 1696 |
| Hayden Springer | -1.03 | 90 | 1730 |
| Wilson Furr | 0.46 | 190 | 1541 |
| Ryan McCormick | 0.47 | 192 | 1540 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | 0.28 | 182 | 1564 |
| Tom Whitney | -0.08 | 164 | 1610 |
| Blaine Hale | 0.89 | 201 | 1487 |
| Raul Pereda | 1.39 | 207 | 1424 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.75 | 5 | 1948 |
