Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.41 | 4 | 1905 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.30 | 8 | 1890 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.24 | 10 | 1883 |
| Corey Conners | -2.20 | 13 | 1878 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.19 | 11 | 1877 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.66 | 70 | 1810 |
| Keegan Bradley | -1.85 | 16 | 1834 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.93 | 29 | 1844 |
| Daniel Berger | -1.74 | 30 | 1820 |
| Denny McCarthy | -1.87 | 19 | 1837 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.42 | 66 | 1780 |
| Tony Finau | -1.76 | 32 | 1822 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.72 | 36 | 1818 |
| Sam Burns | -1.73 | 24 | 1819 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.60 | 35 | 1802 |
| Tom Kim | -1.56 | 48 | 1798 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.57 | 41 | 1798 |
| Maverick McNealy | -1.61 | 38 | 1803 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.47 | 57 | 1785 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.60 | 40 | 1802 |
| Jake Knapp | -1.14 | 88 | 1745 |
| Gary Woodland | -1.24 | 73 | 1756 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.40 | 45 | 1777 |
| Harry Hall | -1.36 | 55 | 1772 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.10 | 87 | 1738 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.32 | 63 | 1766 |
| Rico Hoey | -1.19 | 89 | 1750 |
| Ryan Gerard | -1.41 | 1,000 | 1779 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.36 | 58 | 1772 |
| Brian Harman | -1.16 | 52 | 1746 |
| Ryan Fox | -1.21 | 79 | 1753 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.34 | 64 | 1770 |
| Charley Hoffman | -1.06 | 109 | 1734 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.23 | 61 | 1755 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.05 | 90 | 1732 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.14 | 76 | 1744 |
| Justin Rose | -1.18 | 50 | 1749 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.21 | 84 | 1752 |
| Seamus Power | -1.18 | 67 | 1749 |
| Matt Kuchar | -0.80 | 91 | 1701 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -1.07 | 62 | 1735 |
| Beau Hossler | -0.97 | 83 | 1722 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -1.05 | 104 | 1733 |
| Eric Cole | -1.13 | 78 | 1743 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.06 | 71 | 1734 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.93 | 93 | 1718 |
| Jesper Svensson | -1.03 | 1,000 | 1731 |
| Victor Perez | -1.22 | 69 | 1754 |
| Cameron Young | -0.93 | 111 | 1718 |
| Mac Meissner | -1.07 | 99 | 1735 |
| Matt Wallace | -0.99 | 106 | 1725 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | -0.87 | 1,000 | 1710 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.75 | 128 | 1694 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.15 | 80 | 1745 |
| Max Homa | -0.84 | 112 | 1705 |
| Chan Kim | -0.93 | 103 | 1717 |
| Max McGreevy | -1.14 | 107 | 1744 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.81 | 114 | 1703 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -0.81 | 92 | 1702 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -1.07 | 75 | 1735 |
| Alejandro Tosti | -0.40 | 166 | 1650 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.79 | 101 | 1700 |
| Justin Lower | -0.74 | 97 | 1693 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -0.87 | 86 | 1710 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -0.67 | 124 | 1685 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.55 | 172 | 1669 |
| Ricky Castillo | -0.81 | 85 | 1702 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | -0.18 | 1,000 | 1623 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | -0.69 | 115 | 1687 |
| Benjamin James | -0.04 | 1605 | |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.69 | 108 | 1687 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.65 | 139 | 1682 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.67 | 117 | 1684 |
| Kevin Roy | -0.67 | 148 | 1685 |
| Ben Martin | -0.30 | 152 | 1638 |
| Quade Cummins | -0.66 | 127 | 1683 |
| Jeremy Paul | -0.52 | 1,000 | 1665 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.71 | 105 | 1690 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.48 | 137 | 1660 |
| Jackson Suber | -0.40 | 1,000 | 1650 |
| Antoine Rozner | -0.50 | 1,000 | 1663 |
| Preston Summerhays | 0.84 | 1493 | |
| Webb Simpson | -0.51 | 121 | 1664 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.74 | 102 | 1694 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.70 | 110 | 1688 |
| Steven Fisk | -0.83 | 1,000 | 1704 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.33 | 150 | 1641 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.56 | 126 | 1670 |
| Martin Laird | 0.21 | 145 | 1573 |
| Carson Young | -0.52 | 122 | 1666 |
| Danny Walker | -0.67 | 82 | 1685 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.29 | 113 | 1636 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -0.52 | 170 | 1665 |
| Luke List | -0.29 | 141 | 1636 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.31 | 136 | 1639 |
| Matteo Manassero | -0.52 | 1,000 | 1665 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.22 | 138 | 1627 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.48 | 175 | 1539 |
| Kris Ventura | -0.38 | 1,000 | 1647 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.28 | 142 | 1634 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.21 | 134 | 1626 |
| Padraig Harrington | 0.78 | 184 | 1501 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.21 | 149 | 1626 |
| Thriston Lawrence | 0.15 | 1,000 | 1580 |
| William Mouw | -0.14 | 1,000 | 1618 |
| Noah Goodwin | -0.33 | 1,000 | 1641 |
| Norman Xiong | 0.41 | 1,000 | 1548 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.18 | 146 | 1622 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | -0.28 | 187 | 1634 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.24 | 133 | 1630 |
| Frankie Capan | 0.02 | 1,000 | 1597 |
| Tim Widing | 0.05 | 1593 | |
| Matthew Riedel | 0.31 | 1,000 | 1560 |
| Thomas Rosenmueller | 0.15 | 1,000 | 1580 |
| John Pak | 0.19 | 164 | 1575 |
| Paul Peterson | 0.23 | 1,000 | 1571 |
| David Lipsky | 0.12 | 159 | 1584 |
| Kevin Velo | 0.30 | 1,000 | 1562 |
| Paul Waring | 0.63 | 1520 | |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.61 | 180 | 1522 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.76 | 186 | 1503 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.28 | 199 | 1564 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.49 | 198 | 1537 |
| Mason Andersen | 0.54 | 1,000 | 1531 |
| Blaine Hale | 0.51 | 202 | 1535 |
| Jimmy Walker | 0.94 | 1481 | |
| Francesco Molinari | 0.49 | 177 | 1537 |
| David Skinns | 0.37 | 183 | 1552 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.56 | 207 | 1402 |
| Trevor Cone | 0.46 | 1541 | |
| Taylor Dickson | 0.41 | 1,000 | 1547 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.54 | 191 | 1531 |
| Will Chandler | 0.77 | 1,000 | 1502 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.67 | 209 | 1388 |
| Hunter Logan | 1.71 | 1,000 | 1383 |
| Cristobal Del Solar | 1.02 | 1,000 | 1471 |
| Braden Thornberry | 0.60 | 1,000 | 1524 |
| Kaito Onishi | 0.64 | 1,000 | 1518 |
| Anders Albertson | 1.15 | 1454 | |
| Bronson Burgoon | 1.98 | 181 | 1349 |
| Philip Knowles | 1.33 | 205 | 1432 |
| Rafael Campos | 1.03 | 197 | 1469 |
| Jared Jones | 1.39 | 1,000 | 1423 |
| Vince Covello | 1.67 | 1388 | |
| Patrick Pockels | 0.98 | 1,000 | 1475 |
| Austen Christiansen | 1.00 | 1,000 | 1473 |
Power Rankings
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
| Justin Thomas | -2.61 | 6 | 1930 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.48 | 10 | 1914 |
| Daniel Berger | -1.89 | 30 | 1839 |
| Viktor Hovland | -2.00 | 18 | 1853 |
| Rory McIlroy | -3.02 | 3 | 1982 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.79 | 1 | 2079 |
| Shane Lowry | -2.39 | 12 | 1902 |
| Sam Burns | -1.97 | 24 | 1849 |
| Xander Schauffele | -2.62 | 5 | 1932 |
| Russell Henley | -2.58 | 7 | 1927 |
| Collin Morikawa | -3.15 | 2 | 1999 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.45 | 11 | 1910 |
| Sungjae Im | -1.80 | 37 | 1828 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.61 | 45 | 1804 |
| Cameron Young | -0.76 | 111 | 1696 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.28 | 155 | 1635 |
| Corey Conners | -2.38 | 13 | 1901 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.62 | 43 | 1805 |
| Seamus Power | -1.28 | 67 | 1762 |
| Alex Noren | -1.98 | 21 | 1850 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.92 | 28 | 1843 |
| Max Homa | -0.75 | 112 | 1695 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.67 | 121 | 1684 |
| Adam Scott | -2.17 | 14 | 1874 |
| Tony Finau | -1.86 | 32 | 1835 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.17 | 76 | 1748 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.68 | 41 | 1813 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.21 | 70 | 1753 |
| Keegan Bradley | -2.02 | 16 | 1855 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.29 | 66 | 1762 |
| Maverick McNealy | -1.79 | 38 | 1826 |
| Harris English | -1.52 | 51 | 1792 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.00 | 90 | 1726 |
| Brian Harman | -1.48 | 52 | 1788 |
| Harry Hall | -1.46 | 55 | 1785 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.54 | 8 | 1921 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.40 | 146 | 1650 |
| Robert MacIntyre | -2.50 | 9 | 1916 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.93 | 95 | 1718 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.37 | 59 | 1773 |
| Gary Woodland | -1.20 | 73 | 1751 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.48 | 53 | 1787 |
| Jason Day | -1.84 | 34 | 1833 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.25 | 158 | 1631 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -0.68 | 119 | 1686 |
| Justin Rose | -1.54 | 50 | 1795 |
| Luke List | -0.45 | 141 | 1656 |
| Denny McCarthy | -2.00 | 19 | 1853 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.04 | 207 | 1468 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.85 | 101 | 1708 |
| Erik van Rooyen | -0.74 | 115 | 1693 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.18 | 161 | 1623 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.87 | 31 | 1837 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.60 | 46 | 1803 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.62 | 126 | 1678 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -1.30 | 62 | 1765 |
| Sepp Straka | -2.13 | 15 | 1869 |
| Matt Kuchar | -0.99 | 91 | 1724 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.15 | 80 | 1745 |
| Davis Riley | -0.17 | 163 | 1622 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.83 | 36 | 1831 |
| Aaron Rai | -1.98 | 20 | 1850 |
| Troy Merritt | 0.10 | 178 | 1587 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.43 | 56 | 1781 |
| Erik Barnes | 1.45 | 212 | 1416 |
| Cameron Davis | -0.91 | 98 | 1715 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.50 | 136 | 1663 |
| Martin Laird | -0.40 | 145 | 1650 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.26 | 68 | 1759 |
| Stewart Cink | -0.53 | 131 | 1666 |
| C.T. Pan | -0.74 | 116 | 1693 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.10 | 84 | 1739 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.18 | 74 | 1749 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.74 | 113 | 1693 |
| Ryan Moore | -0.38 | 147 | 1648 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.35 | 189 | 1555 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.28 | 156 | 1635 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.47 | 138 | 1659 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.03 | 87 | 1730 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.97 | 23 | 1849 |
| Nick Taylor | -1.37 | 60 | 1773 |
| Danny Willett | -0.33 | 151 | 1641 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.32 | 61 | 1766 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.80 | 105 | 1700 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.10 | 83 | 1739 |
| Chan Kim | -0.81 | 103 | 1702 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.95 | 93 | 1720 |
| J.J. Spaun | -1.94 | 26 | 1845 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.33 | 150 | 1641 |
| Francesco Molinari | 0.10 | 177 | 1587 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.21 | 71 | 1752 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -0.66 | 124 | 1683 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.92 | 29 | 1843 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.23 | 209 | 1444 |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.78 | 108 | 1699 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.78 | 109 | 1698 |
| Tyler Duncan | -0.06 | 171 | 1607 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.80 | 199 | 1498 |
| David Lipsky | -0.21 | 159 | 1627 |
| Austin Smotherman | -0.67 | 120 | 1685 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.16 | 182 | 1579 |
| Tom Kim | -1.57 | 48 | 1798 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.39 | 191 | 1550 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.73 | 117 | 1692 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.08 | 175 | 1590 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.85 | 33 | 1834 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.29 | 64 | 1763 |
| Matt Wallace | -0.79 | 106 | 1700 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.05 | 172 | 1605 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.48 | 54 | 1786 |
| Garrick Higgo | -0.66 | 123 | 1683 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.50 | 134 | 1663 |
| Kevin Tway | -0.50 | 135 | 1663 |
| James Hahn | -0.08 | 168 | 1610 |
| Roger Sloan | -0.04 | 173 | 1605 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.84 | 35 | 1832 |
| Justin Suh | -0.43 | 143 | 1654 |
| Cameron Champ | -0.18 | 162 | 1622 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.73 | 39 | 1819 |
| Padraig Harrington | 0.20 | 184 | 1574 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.85 | 102 | 1707 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.42 | 144 | 1653 |
| Kevin Chappell | -0.52 | 132 | 1666 |
| Josh Teater | 0.85 | 200 | 1492 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.14 | 180 | 1582 |
| Bill Haas | 0.91 | 204 | 1484 |
| Victor Perez | -1.24 | 69 | 1756 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.78 | 198 | 1500 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.71 | 118 | 1689 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.49 | 137 | 1661 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.60 | 47 | 1802 |
| Will Gordon | -0.08 | 169 | 1610 |
| Ben Martin | -0.33 | 152 | 1641 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.32 | 186 | 1559 |
| Ben Taylor | 0.87 | 201 | 1490 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 0.14 | 181 | 1582 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.34 | 149 | 1642 |
| Quade Cummins | -0.61 | 127 | 1677 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.40 | 58 | 1777 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -0.07 | 170 | 1608 |
| Robby Shelton | -0.29 | 154 | 1636 |
| Wesley Bryan | -0.53 | 130 | 1667 |
| Paul Barjon | 1.36 | 210 | 1427 |
| Brandon Wu | -0.31 | 153 | 1639 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.44 | 142 | 1655 |
| Scott Gutschewski | 1.66 | 214 | 1390 |
| Max McGreevy | -0.79 | 107 | 1699 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0.95 | 206 | 1480 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.29 | 63 | 1763 |
| Chesson Hadley | -0.26 | 157 | 1632 |
| Justin Lower | -0.93 | 97 | 1718 |
| Austin Cook | 0.91 | 203 | 1484 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.58 | 197 | 1526 |
| Callum Tarren | 0.36 | 190 | 1554 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.74 | 114 | 1693 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.29 | 65 | 1762 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.58 | 128 | 1674 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 0.34 | 187 | 1556 |
| Kelly Kraft | -0.93 | 96 | 1718 |
| Ryan Fox | -1.16 | 79 | 1746 |
| John Pak | -0.15 | 164 | 1619 |
| J.B. Holmes | 1.79 | 215 | 1373 |
| Martin Trainer | 1.14 | 208 | 1455 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.93 | 27 | 1844 |
| David Skinns | 0.19 | 183 | 1576 |
| Zac Blair | -0.45 | 140 | 1656 |
| Ricky Castillo | -1.09 | 85 | 1738 |
| Danny Walker | -1.12 | 82 | 1742 |
| Michael Kim | -1.94 | 25 | 1846 |
| Grayson Murray | -0.86 | 100 | 1708 |
| Jorge Campillo | -0.54 | 129 | 1668 |
| Cody Gribble | 1.59 | 213 | 1398 |
| Parker Coody | -0.03 | 174 | 1603 |
| Carson Young | -0.66 | 122 | 1684 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.45 | 139 | 1657 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -0.80 | 104 | 1701 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.52 | 133 | 1665 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -0.96 | 92 | 1721 |
| Alex Noren | -1.98 | 21 | 1850 |
| Carl Yuan | 0.34 | 188 | 1556 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.41 | 57 | 1778 |
| Kevin Roy | -0.35 | 148 | 1644 |
| Vincent Norrman | 0.13 | 179 | 1583 |
| Philip Knowles | 0.94 | 205 | 1480 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.71 | 40 | 1816 |
| Eric Cole | -1.16 | 78 | 1747 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -1.20 | 72 | 1752 |
| Harrison Endycott | 0.51 | 196 | 1534 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.62 | 44 | 1804 |
| Tyson Alexander | 0.49 | 195 | 1537 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -0.94 | 94 | 1718 |
| Nick Dunlap | -0.62 | 125 | 1678 |
| Luke Clanton | -2.01 | 17 | 1854 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -1.18 | 75 | 1749 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.77 | 110 | 1697 |
| Alejandro Tosti | -0.12 | 166 | 1614 |
| Mac Meissner | -0.89 | 99 | 1712 |
| Jake Knapp | -1.00 | 88 | 1726 |
| Neal Shipley | -1.14 | 81 | 1744 |
| Max Greyserman | -1.63 | 42 | 1806 |
| Pierceson Coody | -0.20 | 160 | 1625 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -1.05 | 86 | 1733 |
| Trace Crowe | -0.13 | 165 | 1616 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.09 | 176 | 1588 |
| Kevin Dougherty | 0.40 | 192 | 1548 |
| Joe Highsmith | -1.55 | 49 | 1796 |
| Rico Hoey | -1.00 | 89 | 1726 |
| Hayden Springer | -1.17 | 77 | 1748 |
| Wilson Furr | 0.45 | 193 | 1542 |
| Ryan McCormick | 0.47 | 194 | 1540 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | 0.28 | 185 | 1564 |
| Tom Whitney | -0.08 | 167 | 1610 |
| Blaine Hale | 0.89 | 202 | 1487 |
| Raul Pereda | 1.39 | 211 | 1424 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.66 | 4 | 1937 |
