Our PGA DFS series continues with our 3M Open PGA DFS Core Plays, which includes a look at Akshay Bhatia, among others.
With all four major championships in the rearview mirror, we now begin our march towards the TOUR Championship. The first stop is the 3M open, which will be played for the 6th year in a row at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, MN.
2024 3M Open PGA DFS Core Plays
3M Open DFS Course & Tournament Preview
As a par 71 measuring in at 7,400 yards, TPC Twin Cities is a fairly long course. While the fairways are relatively wide, thick 4 inch rough awaits any wayward tee shots that happen to avoid the water hazards that come into play on 12 of its 18 holes. With a winning score that has ranged between -15 and -24 under par, it’s clear that the course is very gettable if golfers can maintain control of their golf ball.
Different styles of play have been able to compete in this event over its short history. Bombers the likes of Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, and Tony Finau have won here, along with shorter and more accurate players like Michael Thompson and Lee Hodges. My main focus this week will be on accuracy off the tee, and strong approach play, with distance as an added bonus given the lengthly layout.
As always, I’ve used the Stokastic PGA Sim tool to identify four players that I’ll be building my lineup portfolio around this week. This tool has been on fire lately, with three Stokastic users taking down $50k or more over the last five weeks!Â
Our hole-by-hole simulation technology allows me to take every golfer in the field’s range of outcomes into consideration, along with what I project the competition’s lineups to look like. By simulating the lineups against each other tens of thousands of times, the best plays on the slate reveal themselves. The players that appear most in the highest ROI lineups are the ones I want to build my portfolio around.
Our sim tool is the core of my weekly DFS process and is something I highly recommend for those looking to take the next step in DFS. Without further ado, below are the players I’ll be building around as my core plays for The 3M Open.
2024 3M Open DFS Core PlaysÂ
Akshay Bhatia – $9,800
2024 has been a breakout season for Bhatia, who has 10 finishes inside the top 20 including his first career win at the Valero Texas Open in April. He’s been playing particularly well of late, with two top 5 finishes over his last four starts where he’s gained over 17 total strokes tee to green on the field. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 5th amongst this field in fairways gained, along with top 20 rankings in both birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance.
I like to target Bhatia on courses that tend to feature more birdies, rather than a ‘grind it out’ style layout where par is a good score. Over his eight career top 10 finishes, all but one came in events where the winning score was -20 or better. He thrives on golf courses that tend to play a bit easier. With a historical winning score that hovers around that -20 mark, and a driving accuracy figure over 66%, I really like how he sets up this week.
Keith Mitchell – $9,600
If golf were to be played strictly from tee to green, Kieth Mitchell would be among the game’s best players. This season he ranks 5th on the entire PGA Tour in strokes gained tee to green ahead of players the likes of Collin Morikawa and Tony Finau. However, a very inconsistent short game has plagued him throughout his career, and that story is no different in 2024.
The good news for Mitchell is this course doesn’t necessarily require a tremendous short game in order to compete, and he’s had some really nice results here in the past. In four total starts, he has two top five finishes, both of which have come in his last two tries. In a field that lacks star power, I like his chances of competing in Minnesota yet again this week.
Tom Hoge – $8,800
Hoge has quietly put together a very impressive 2024 season, making the cut in 16 of 19 starts that include nine finishes inside the top 20. He’s done it mostly through his irons, where he’s gained strokes on approach in every event this season outside of two. It’s no surprise that over the last 24 rounds he ranks 7th in strokes gained approach, along with a 16th place ranking in strokes gained tee to green. He’s played in this event every year since its inception, making the cut four out of five times that includes three top 23 finishes and a 4th place finish in 2022. A great ball striker at a course he is comfortable at?Sign me up.
GPP Flier
Adam Svensson – $7,400
I touched on the notion a bit above that this course doesn’t require a great putter in order to compete. No player in this field is set to take more advantage of that than Adam Svensson. Over the last 24, he ranks 7th in this field in strokes gained tee to green, and 14th in fairways gained but a dreadful 150th ranking in putting. His consistent ball striking has led to made cuts in 12 of his last 13 starts, but the putter has kept in mostly out of contention.
He now heads to a course that favors accuracy off the tee, and deprioritizes the importance of putting. He’s made the cut in two of three tries in this event including a 15th place finish back in 2019. At single digit ownership I’m willing to take a chance on the ball-striking profile of Svennson in hopes that the putter can remain around the field average on his preferred bent grass putting surfaces.
These are a few of the key players who will make up my player pool for my 2024 3M Open DFS lineups. I’ll favor them significantly when I build lineups using the PGA Sims. In addition, don’t forget to take advantage of the odds boosts sportsbooks are offering.
