Welcome back, everyone! Though the NHL regular season started last week with a couple games in Europe, today is the first day of the regular season in North America. There are just three games on the NHL DFS slate, but it is loaded with elite talent featuring last season’s Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, superstar David Pastrnak, budding superstar Connor Bedard and a whole lot more for our NHL DFS picks and top stacks.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More
It is an early lock on both DraftKings and FanDuel with the St. Louis Blues and Seattle Kraken set to start at 4:30 p.m. ET. Stokastic members should double-check the Discord before lock for updated roster information because there won’t be a morning skate for those teams. Or check out me and Josh Harris breaking down the games on the Stokastic NHL DFS Strategy Show at 3:30 p.m. ET.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers
Connor Bedard (CHI at UTA)
DraftKings Salary
$7,300
FanDuel Salary
$7,800
Despite the Chicago Blackhawks having the lowest per-minute goal rate of any team in the league last year, it was a very successful rookie season for Bedard with 22 goals, 39 assists, and over three shots per game in 68 contests. The good news is that this edition of the Blackhawks has seen improvements up front with Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, and Ilya Mikheyev added to the fold, as well as a healthy Taylor Hall after suffering a torn ACL in his right knee. Adding four legitimate top-9 forwards to last season’s roster makes things look rosier than they did 10 months ago.
What makes Bedard so valuable for NHL DFS is his shooting. In 2023-24, his 9.2 shots per 60 minutes was in the 83rd percentile of regular NHL forwards, and that was as an 18-year-old rookie on the worst offensive team in the league. In fact, 17 of his 68 games finished with at least five shots on goal – enough for the DraftKings shot bonus – which means he did it once every four appearances. That is the same rate as Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk, who has scored at least 40 goals twice in the last three seasons.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Bedard in the same tier as Florida’s Aleksander Barkov, but they’re a clear tier above every other center on the board: Bedard is projected for 18.3% more DraftKings points and 13.7% more FanDuel points than the next-closest option. Chicago has the highest road total on the board (2.7) and with all the minutes and shots Bedard can rack up, he’s one of the top center options.
Barrett Hayton (UTA vs. CHI)
DraftKings Salary
$3,200
FanDuel Salary
$4,000
It was a tough 2023-24 season for Hayton as he managed just 10 points in 33 games. He missed nearly three months in the middle of the season with a hand surgery that took longer than expected to recover from, and then missed the last month of the campaign with a lower-body injury. It is fair to wonder how healthy he was at any time, which would help explain the 40% drop in his 60-minute points rate.
Across the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, Hayton skated nearly 800 minutes at five-on-five with winger Clayton Keller, and the former Arizona Coyotes scored 3.1 goals per 60 minutes in that time. That goal-scoring rate cratered to 1.9 goals per 60 in the limited 2023-24 sample, so, again, it’s fair to wonder how much the injuries hurt Hayton’s game, especially when the top line had so much success the two years prior.
The good news for NHL DFS picks today is that Hayton’s rough season is reflected in his pricing as he’s priced outside the top 12 centers on both sites tonight. That pricing is despite his expected role as he’s projected to skate on both the top line and first power play unit. He grades out as the top point-per-dollar value at his position on both sites, per Stokastic NHL DFS projections, and that is going to drive up his ownership rate among the highest of all centers. Regardless, he is in a great position to succeed at low cost against what should be an improved, but still bad, Chicago team.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers
David Pastrnak (BOS at FLA)
DraftKings Salary
$8,800
FanDuel Salary
$8,800
The 2023-24 campaign was the second season in a row that Pastrnak managed at least 4.6 shots per game as he’s turned into one of the most prolific volume shooters in the league. He finished last season with 37 games of at least five shots on goal, which means he managed a DraftKings shot bonus in 45% of his appearances. Importantly, he skated 19:56 per game, which was a career high, and helps with his floor. His shot rate and ice time has him at the top of the Stokastic data board for expected shots tonight at 4.49, which is 37% higher than the next-closest option.
Boston had their issues scoring last season but that did not apply to Pastrnak and frequent line mate Pavel Zacha. With those two on the ice at five-on-five, the Bruins scored a shade under 4.0 goals per 60 minutes. For reference, it is slightly higher than the on-ice goal rates of Auston Matthews and Elias Pettersson.
It should be noted that the Florida Panthers were the second-most penalized team in the NHL last season, giving up 3.55 power plays per game. Florida had a good-but-not-elite penalty kill, and volume matters.
Pastrnak’s Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections on DraftKings is 15.94 points, and 18.71 points on FanDuel. Those marks are 24% and 17% higher than the next-closest winger option on the two sites, respectively. He is the top offensive option on the board tonight, which makes him a target in all formats.
Evan Rodrigues (FLA vs. BOS)
DraftKings Salary
$4,100
FanDuel Salary
$4,400
Last season, Rodrigues finished the campaign with 17.6 shot attempts per 60 minutes at even strength. That was the second-highest mark among regular Florida forwards, trailing only Carter Verhaeghe. In limited action skating next to center Sam Bennett, he managed a whopping 23 shot attempts per 60 minutes, which would put him among the elite shot-takers in the league if he could do that for a whole season. As it is, over the last two years, he has an 80th-percentile shot rate at even strength, and that’s why Stokastic’s Data Central has him with the highest expected shot total tonight (2.2) of any forward projected for under 16 minutes in ice time.
Rodrigues’s issue is that he’s a low-percentage shooter, averaging 6.2% at even strength across the last three seasons, which is a bottom-10 mark in the league. However, he’s skating with talented line mates in Bennett and Tkachuk, and being able to manage the shot volume that Rodrigues does means he doesn’t need to score to have DFS value.
Among all wingers priced under $4,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Rodrigues ranks seventh and third, respectively, by fantasy point projections tonight. It gives him a top-12 point-per-dollar value mark among wingers in that price range and makes him a one-off option in all formats tonight.
Dylan Holloway (STL at SEA)
DraftKings Salary
$2,500
FanDuel Salary
$3,700
One of the bigger news stories of the offseason was the Edmonton Oilers losing two players to a rarely seen offer sheet, one of them being Holloway. Though Holloway had just eight goals in 82 career games with Edmonton, he did that skating largely away from top stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. What is important to note is last year was his second season and his shots per minute at even strength jumped over 43% from his rookie season. That carried over into the playoffs where his shot rate was fifth among Oilers forwards, nestled between McDavid and Draisaitl.
Importantly for Holloway, he is getting a prime position in the St. Louis lineup out of the gate. He is skating on the top line with Robert Thomas, and Thomas’s even strength per-minute assist rate over the last two seasons is in the 96th percentile of all regular forwards. Holloway is skating next to one of the top playmakers in the NHL, which is a great place to be as a third-year winger who scored 25 goals in 63 minor league games.
Thanks to Holloway’s lineup slotting, the clear appeal tonight is his salary as he’s min price on DraftKings and is priced among fourth liners on FanDuel. His point-per-dollar value on DraftKings is third among all wingers, but he’s an acceptable cheap option on both sites.
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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen
Justin Faulk (STL at SEA)
DraftKings Salary
$4,600
FanDuel Salary
$5,800
An injury to St. Louis defenseman Torey Krug means that Faulk is now running the top power play unit for the Blues. In the 2023-24 season, Krug skated nearly 57% of the team’s power play time when he was in the lineup, which would represent a drastic improvement for Faulk, who finished with 35.6% of the power play time.
Last season, even with that secondary power play time, Faulk still managed 30 points in 60 games while averaging over two shots and 1.7 blocks per game. He managed those 30 points while shooting just 1.5% against a three-year average of 7.1% too. There is a shooting percentage rebound coming, and he’s also getting a prime power play role. Add that to his shot-taking and shot-blocking tendencies, and there’s a well-rounded DFS defenseman here.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Faulk comes in with the third-highest fantasy point projection on Stokastic tonight. He is also in the top 5 by point-per-dollar value on both sites. He is likely to be one of the highest-owned defensemen because of his role and reasonable price, especially on DraftKings, but there are only so many options tonight and he’s near the top of the board.
Dmitry Kulikov (FLA vs. BOS)
DraftKings Salary
$2,600
FanDuel Salary
$3,700
As with many Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers lost some key members in the offseason as both Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Montour moved to new teams. The Panthers added some depth options, but the loss of those two blue liners means that Kulikov has effectively moved onto the second pair through attrition alone.
Early in the 2023-24 campaign, the Panthers were missing a couple regulars on the blue line due to injury, and it led to Kulikov skating 18:58 per game across the first four weeks of his season. That dropped off as the team got healthy, but it shows how much ice time he could earn thanks to the team’s offseason losses. As it is, Stokastic’s Skater Stats has him skating 18 minutes tonight, and that’s leading to a projection of 1.1 shots and 1.3 blocks, which is a solid floor for his price.
Projections have Kulikov third by point-per-dollar value on DraftKings tonight, though he falls to 10th on FanDuel where peripherals like shots and blocks aren’t as important. He is more suited for a DraftKings lineup but is fine on either.
For DFS players looking for a higher value on FanDuel tonight, Kulikov’s teammate Adam Boqvist ($3,600) is expected to run the top power play unit.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Joey Daccord (SEA vs. STL)
DraftKings Salary
$7,800
FanDuel Salary
$7,300
Daccord was one of the best stories of the 2023-24 season, as the 27-year-old had just 15 career starts before managing 46 starts last year. His .916 save percentage tied for third among 31 goalies with at least 40 starts, and that’s what made him one of the top breakout players of the season.
What helped him a lot was the Seattle Kraken allowing just 6.0 high-danger shots against per 60 minutes with Daccord in net, by far the lowest rate in the league. As a team, it was the second season in a row they had a top-10 mark by fewest high-danger shots allowed per 60 minutes, and they are running back largely the same roster with a few additions like Chandler Stephenson, Shane Wright, and Montour.
Seattle is hosting St. Louis, and the Blues have the second-lowest team total on the board tonight (2.6). Shot volume may be an issue as Daccord ranks fourth out of six goalies by projected saves, per Stokastic’s Goalie Stats, but a mediocre St. Louis team on the road with a low team total is pushing Daccord’s fantasy point projections to second on the board. Just be sure to double-check that he’s starting as he’s not confirmed yet and with this being an afternoon game for the Kraken, we may not find out until warmups.
NHL DFS Top Stacks Today | NHL DFS Picks Today
FLA1: Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart
Last season, this trio created 35.6 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. To put that into perspective, as a team, Florida created 32.3 shots per 60 minutes. This is a high-octane line featuring a 57-goal scorer from last year (Reinhart) and a 42-goal scorer from the year before (Verhaeghe). Stokastic’s Skater Stats have all three as the top 3 Florida forwards by expected ice time tonight and they are all skating on the team’s first power play unit as well. With those three on the power play last season, the team scored 12.0 goals per 60 minutes, a rate that would put them among high-end power plays like those from the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers.
This is the highest-priced line on the night tonight, but they also have the highest top-2 stack probability at 36.7% on DraftKings and 35.2% on FanDuel, per the Top Stacks tool. They are the only line with a probability exceeding 30% on either site, so they are the top option on the board, as reflected by their price. The good news is they are expected to have an ownership rate under 20% on both sites, so there is a good amount of positive leverage on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
SEA3: Eeli Tolvanen – Shane Wright – Oliver Bjorkstrand
Before the 2022 Entry Draft, there seemed to be a high probability that Wright would be the first overall pick. He slid to Seattle at fourth overall and after his rookie year between junior hockey, the minor leagues, and the NHL, he spent most of his second year in the minors. He has earned the third-line role for this NHL season and is looking to build off a minor league campaign that saw him finish tied for fifth in rookie goal scoring.
Wright is being put in a position to succeed as his two wingers rank second and third, respectively, among Seattle forwards by five-on-five goal scoring rate over the last two seasons. Both Wright and Bjorkstrand are on the second power play unit as well, and while the second unit might not mean much on most teams, Seattle had nine different forwards earn between 42% to 52% of the team’s power play time last season. The Kraken like to split the units, and while it remains to be seen if it stays the same way under a new coach, Seattle had nine forwards earn between 42% to 60% of the team’s power play time during the preseason, including both Wright and Bjorkstrand.
Per the Top Stacks tool, of the five lines priced between $13,000 and $14,000 on DraftKings tonight, this Seattle line is expected to have the lowest ownership and least amount of negative leverage. They have similar top-2 stack probability and ownership rates on FanDuel, so this is a filler line to circle for tournament DFS contests tonight on either site.
*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick.
