NHL DFS Picks Today: Nazem Kadri Popping Everywhere (Oct. 15)

The NHL has rolled into its second week, and we are here to break down the nine-game Tuesday DFS slate. There is an early marquee matchup between the Vancouver Canucks and Tampa Bay Lightning as well as two teams on a back-to-back: New Jersey Devils and Florida Panthers. For that reason, Stokastic subscribers should double-check the Discord before lock for any breaking roster news. Let’s get into today’s top NHL DFS picks and stacks with the help of Stokastic NHL DFS projections, NHL DFS ownership projections and advanced Sim data like the NHL Top Stacks Tool.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks, Expert Advice & More

NHL DFS Picks Today: Centers

If he can hold onto the ice time that he’s getting, it helps keep his DFS floor high through that shot volume. The last time he had a season with over 19 minutes a game, he averaged 3.5 shots per contest.

Chicago is visiting Calgary tonight, and it presents a good matchup for Kadri and the Flames. On the young season, the Blackhawks are giving up the third-most shots per minute, which isn’t a surprise given they allowed the fourth-most shots per minute a season ago. The Flames are a home favorite while Kadri is earning the most ice time of any of their forwards, and that makes him appealing for this DFS slate.

Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Kadri third among all centers on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, but he’s priced outside the top 10 centers on both sites. It gives him excellent point-per-dollar values, and he’s projected for single-digit ownership as well. He makes a good pick for both NHL DFS cash games and tournaments tonight.

Dubois is on the second line with Tom Wilson, and they had a good first game together as Washington outshot the New Jersey Devils 7-4 with the duo on the ice, including a goal scored. It might be easy to scoff at Wilson as a winger, but he was 1 of 4 regular Washington forwards last season to be on the ice for more high-danger shots for (194) than against (187). This could be a good secondary scoring line as the season wears on, and with the top power play time, Dubois has offensive upside in this role.

Of all centers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings tonight and $5,000 on FanDuel, Dubois has a top-5 fantasy point projection. He is also carrying an ownership projection under 5% on both sites. At his price, he can be used as a salary-saving center and is fine to use as part of a Washington tournament stack.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Wingers

Additionally, in the good-news department, Boldy is getting center Joel Eriksson Ek back tonight as he missed the last game with a broken nose but is set to return. That should help give the Wild second line a boost at five-on-five.

At even strength this season, the St. Louis Blues are giving up the second-most high-danger shot attempts per minute of any team in the league. It hasn’t exactly been a murderer’s row of matchups, either, going into Seattle, San Jose and Vegas. The Wild are favored on the road, Boldy is getting a lot of ice time, and he’s getting his usual center back. It makes for a good situation for Boldy to produce offensively tonight.

Like Kadri earlier, Boldy is carrying a strong fantasy point projection – sixth among all wingers on DraftKings and FanDuel – but is priced as the 10th winger on DraftKings and outside the top 15 on FanDuel. It gives him good point-per-dollar value regardless of where DFS players are rostering him, so he can be used either as a one-off option or part of a Minnesota stack.

***UPDATE: Eriksson Ek has been announced as out for this game, but it doesn’t change Boldy’s outlook much.

The last time DeBrusk had a season with at least 50% of the team’s power play time, he scored 27 goals in 64 games and averaged just shy of three shots per game. Add that power play time with a top-6 role, and he can earn a career-high rate in ice time. That makes him a candidate for a career season.

Vancouver visits Tampa Bay tonight and while the home team is a slight favorite, the over/under is set at 6.5 so there are goals expected from the road team. As a team last season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished outside the top 10 by high-danger shots allowed per minute and finished 22nd by goals against per minute. They are generally able to outscore their defensive issues, but if they aren’t an improved team in this regard, it bodes well for DeBrusk and the Canucks to post some goals tonight.

Being on the road on a large slate is keeping ownership away from Vancouver, as DeBrusk is coming in at 3.1% on DraftKings and under 2% on FanDuel. He has correlation at all offensive strengths with Elias Pettersson, so DeBrusk is fine to use by himself or as part of a stack.

Where DeBrusk is much more expensive on FanDuel, players on that site should consider Evan Rodrigues (FLA, $4,600) as he carries a high projection given his top line/top power play status.

Chinakhov and his line mates are a significant part of the early success. In those two games, Chinakhov’s line earned a huge shot advantage (21-7), high-danger shot advantage (9-1) and goal advantage (3-1). On top of that, our subject averaged over 19 minutes per game, an improvement of over four minutes from a season ago. Last year, he scored 16 goals in 53 games, averaging over two shots per game, while skating just 15:10 per night. Now that he’s on the top line and top power play unit, he’s getting huge ice time totals, and it has translated to 4 points and seven shots in his two appearances. He and his line mates have played very well and have excellent production to show for it.

Of all wingers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, Chinakhov ranks fourth and third, respectively, by fantasy point projection. That strong projection and reasonable price may lead to double-digit ownership in tournaments, but his role and usage makes him an option no matter the contest.

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NHL DFS Picks Today: Defensemen

In other words, if this small sample were closer to his career norms, he would have 11 shots on goal in three games, rather than the four he has actually registered. There is a lot of positive regression coming to his shot totals, and the fact that he’s skating 25:26 per night so far this season gives him a very high floor for that shot volume.

A home matchup against Philadelphia is giving Bouchard the second-highest fantasy point projection among all defensemen. On top of that, his point-per-dollar value on both DraftKings and FanDuel is higher than any other blue liner projected in the top 10. For that reason, he is likely to be one of the highest owned defensemen tonight, but that shouldn’t discourage DFS players from rostering him in any format.

Of all the defensemen priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, Gostisbehere leads the way in Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections. That is on the back of a high total minutes projection (about 22:30), but he has a reasonable price on both sites and his strong projection brings him in play for both cash games and tournaments.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie

That shaky defense is also a reason to want to roster Binnington tonight, as Stokastic goaltender projections have him with the fifth-highest save total on the board. As far as goals against go, he’s only projected for the 10th-highest mark, which gives a nice gap between high expected saves and modest expected goals. Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have him fourth on DraftKings tonight and fifth on FanDuel, and with his modest price, he makes a good value proposition in net regardless of the site.

NHL DFS Top Stacks Today

NSH1: Filip Forsberg – Ryan O’Reilly – Gustav Nyquist

It has been just two games, but by their underlying results, this Nashville top line picked up where it left off last year: At five-on-five, this trio has outshot their opponent 12-3, earning a 4-2 high-danger shot advantage. They have yet to score, but if they keep dominating as they have, it’s just a matter of time before they start filling the net.

Through the team’s early portion, each member of this top line is earning at least 14:45 per game in even strength time as Nashville has leaned heavily on their top two lines. That is notable because in the 2023-24 season, Forsberg was the only member of this trio to manage over 14:45 per game. It has led to Forsberg and O’Reilly averaging over 20 minutes per game overall so far, with Nyquist a bit lower due to his secondary power play status.

Stokastic’s NHL Top Stacks Tool has this Nashville line among the top 10 for top-2 stack probability on both sites, cresting 7% on DraftKings and FanDuel. They are also projected for lower ownership numbers than that – 5.2% and 3.5%, respectively – so they have good positive leverage on this large slate. DFS players wanting to avoid high-priced lines from Tampa Bay, New Jersey, or Edmonton will want to consider Nashville’s top trio.

DAL2: Mason Marchment – Matt Duchene – Tyler Seguin

While this Dallas line is losing the overall shot battle at five-on-five so far this season, they have had the better share of the high-danger shots by a 7-3 margin. Though not to the same degree, it was the same story a season ago as this line was outshot in their time together but had more high-danger shots than their opponent. They are good at creating quality chances, and that matters a lot for scoring goals.

A bonus for this trio is that they all skate on Dallas’s second power play unit together. While that might not mean much ice time on most teams, Dallas gives their second unit a fair share of the ice time. So far this season, that has translated to each member of this trio skating between 41% and 48% of the team’s power play time and over two minutes per game.

Clearly, the matchup against a weak San Jose roster is a big reason for eyeing Dallas tonight. Even with that favorable matchup, this Dallas line has the lowest projected ownership for any stack priced under $13,000 on DraftKings. Even with higher ownership than top-2 stack probability, they are an acceptable filler stack for this slate.

For a cheaper line on FanDuel, players will want to consider the St. Louis second line of Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou and Zack Bolduc. They are $2,000 cheaper than this Dallas line and carry a slightly higher top-2 stack probability.

***UPDATE: Tyler Seguin is expected to miss this game, but top prospect Mavrik Bourque is expected to return. We do not have line combinations, and a line with Bourque in Seguin’s place on DraftKings would be two centers. Another line to consider on either site is the Calgary third line of Anthony Mantha–Martin Pospisil–Jonathan Huberdeau.

*Additional stats used for our NHL DFS picks today column from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey