As Week 3 of the NFL season approaches, it’s time to dive into the projections and ownership trends shaping up for NFL DFS contests. Here’s a breakdown what to expect for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and defenses — along with their NFL DFS projections and ownership projections that could help you find leverage on the field.
Let’s break down some early DFS plays, going position by position with quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defense/special teams (DST).
But before we dive in, did you know we offer some of the top NFL DFS Sims in the game? Just hit that hyperlink you stumbled upon or tap the ad to see the tools that have helped players rake in millions. You won’t want to miss out!
NFL DFS Week 3 Projections, Ownership & More
Quarterbacks
When it comes to stacking your quarterback with pass-catchers, here are the top projected stacks based on the odds of being the highest-scoring team:
- Lions (9.5%)
- Cowboys (8.9%)
- Texans (7.2%)
These stacks look attractive for their upside, but from a stack-rating perspective — factoring in both price and ownership — the Ravens, Saints, Lions, 49ers and Seahawks rise to the top. Interestingly, despite the favorable stacking odds, the ownership for these quarterbacks is fairly spread out, with none of the top 5 quarterbacks exceeding 5.5% projected ownership:
- Jared Goff
- Dak Prescott
- CJ Stroud
- Brock Purdy
This suggests that quarterback ownership could shift closer to lock, as DFS players lock in value.
One notable value at quarterback this week is Geno Smith (vs. Miami). With DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba commanding 90% of the Seahawks targets last week, this could become a concentrated stack worth exploiting. Deshaun Watson and Caleb Williams are also projected as strong values.
Running Backs
Jordan Mason of the 49ers is a standout value for Week 3. Priced at just $6,200 on DraftKings and facing a depleted Rams defense, he’s the highest-projected running back on the slate. Mason’s ownership is already around 50%, though that could increase as we near lock. With Kenneth Walker expected to miss another week, the running back value pool is deeper than the wide receiver and tight end positions:
- Jordan Mason
- Zach Charbonnet
- Alvin Kamara
- Javonte Williams
- Rachaad White
Looking for low-owned leverage? Zamir White (projected at 3.6% ownership) offers an optimal score of 7.95%, while Tony Pollard — despite being overpriced — comes in under 4% owned with a 6.7% chance of being optimal. These low-owned backs could help you stand out in tournaments.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk is the No. 1 value at wide receiver, benefiting from Deebo Samuel‘s absence and a favorable matchup against the Rams. However, this popularity comes at a cost: He’s currently projected for 26% ownership, the highest of any receiver on the slate.
For those looking to pay down at wide receiver, Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,600) has emerged as a value option, especially with the Falcons passing game in flux. Other cheap values include:
- Demarcus Robinson
- Jordan Whittington
- Diontae Johnson
Surprisingly, the top-end receivers are projected for low ownership, offering intriguing leverage opportunities. Of the top eight salaried receivers, only CeeDee Lamb is projected for over 10% ownership. Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all expected to be under-owned relative to their upside.
Tight Ends
NFL DFS ownership projections at tight end are concentrated on George Kittle and Trey McBride, who are soaking up 25% of the total tight end ownership. Isaiah Likely, however, presents the highest leverage score, offering an appealing pivot for DFS players looking to differentiate.
For those hunting value below $4,000, keep an eye on these options:
- Colby Parkinson
- Johnny Mundt
- Noah Fant
Defense/Special Teams
At defense, the Buccaneers, Titans and Colts are the top values. These three teams also lead in projected ownership, but if you’re looking for leverage, the Packers defense has a 2.2% leverage score, making them a potential difference-maker.
NFL DFS Week 3 Projections Conclusion
In Week 3 NFL DFS, finding low-owned leverage plays at key positions — particularly at running back and wide receiver — could help you gain an edge in large-field tournaments. Keep an eye on projected ownership and value trends as we approach lock to capitalize on shifting dynamics. Whether you stack top-end quarterbacks or pivot to low-owned options, being adaptable to the ever-changing NFL DFS landscape is key to a profitable week.
