Sunday Night Football has a 43.5 projected total with the surging Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) heading to Kansas City to face the Team of Destiny Chiefs (11-1) as 4.0-point road dogs. The tight total and touchdown spread add layers of strategy and decisions to make for the night NFL DFS slate. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re focusing on the Chargers-Chiefs showdown for Week 14 Sunday Night Football. We’ll break down NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown contests.
NFL DFS Picks: Chargers-Chiefs Sunday Night Football Week 14
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NFL DFS Picks for Chargers-Chiefs Sunday Night Football Week 14: Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.11
FanDuel: 17.93
Justin Herbert was 16 of 27 (59%) for 179 yards and one touchdown in Week 4 as the Chargers lost 17-10 to Kansas City in Los Angeles. That was the sixth consecutive loss by the Bolts, with Herbert posting a poor 2-7 record against K.C. for his career.
This is not just Herbert’s challenge; the franchise has only three wins and 18 losses versus Kansas City over the last 10 regular seasons. Even as 4.0-point road dogs, the time is ripe for the Chargers to end this madness.
Things have picked up for Herbert, and since the Week 5 bye, he had 32 or more pass attempts in five of eight games. That is a major departure from the 22.3 attempts he averaged in the first month of the season. Herbert has only 13 passing touchdowns, but he also has suffered one interception, which is an amazing ratio.
Los Angeles Chargers Positional Preview
Running Back | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
Kansas City has allowed more than 100 rushing yards only once this season, posting the third-lowest average at 87.3 yards per game. Los Angeles saw J.K. Dobbins land on the injured reserve, which means the backfield is now down to the one-dimensional Gus Edwards, rookie Kimani Vidal and former Michigan Wolverine Hassan Haskins, who fumbled last week on his lone carry.
The team signed John Kelly to the practice squad, though the 28-year-old has played in just 15 games, with just three coming over the last three seasons. His last NFL carry was in 2021, and his last target was in 2018 during his rookie season.
The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Edwards for 10.3 carries and 43 yards, Vidal for 5.6 and 23.5, and Haskins picking up 1.5 carries for half a dozen yards. Vidal is probably good for a couple targets, with the potential for four or five as upside, while Edwards will get one if he is lucky (three on the season).
Wide Receiver | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
Rookie Ladd McConkey was dealing with a shoulder issue, and now he has a sprained knee. He was limited all week in practice, and the team said the decision will be made on his availability when inactives are submitted for the game. If he is active, it is hard to believe that he will be more than 80% effective, but that could be enough for DFS gamers. Let your own personal risk tolerance guide you here as we are unlikely to get any firm information.
Josh Palmer was not able to hold off Quentin Johnston, who had a dreadful rookie campaign. If McConkey is out, then this duo should be in line for half a dozen targets each. Johnston is fourth on the team with 46 targets, and touchdown variance has been on his side with six of Herbert’s 13 scores. Palmer has five fewer opportunities and just one touchdown.
Jalen Reagor is on his fourth team in five seasons, though he is only 22 receiving yards away from 1,000 for his career. That is simply dreadful for the 21st overall selection of the 2020 NFL Draft. Still, if McConkey is out, then it is time to look for any port in this DFS storm. Just watch out for sharks in the water or, in this case, DJ Chark. The six-year veteran has been hurt for most of the season, making his Los Angeles debut with one offensive play in Week 10 and then doubling that last week.
Stay on top of the inactive list and catch Stokastic’s NFL Live Before Lock at 7:30 p.m. ET for the latest updates and expert fantasy analysis.
Tight End | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
Kansas City has been awful against tight ends this season, so Will Dissly has merit as a salary saver. The former Seattle Seahawk already has personal bests with 53 targets, 41 receptions and 399 yards. Though he has just one trip to the end zone, the Chiefs have allowed five scores to this position and Brock Bowers just carved them up. Dissly is certainly not Bowers, but he is a savvy veteran with plenty of tricks up his sleeve.
Kicker | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
Cameron Dicker has been outstanding this season with two missed field goals. He is 8 of 9 (89%) from between 40 and 49 yards, as well as from 50-plus yards. The three missed PATs are annoying, but most teams would take that tradeoff with the accuracy from long range.
Defense | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
Kansas City has had issues at left tackle, as second-round rookie Kingsley Suamataia lost the starting gig after two games. Second-year lineman Wanya Morris started the next 12 games, but he was benched last Friday. He was a third-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, and while he did catch a touchdown two weeks ago, if he can’t protect the blindside, then he is a liability. That has opened the door for D.J. Humphries to potentially start tonight, and he will certainly play his first snaps with Kansas City. Arizona released him this spring after nine seasons, and he signed with the Chiefs just before Thanksgiving.
K.C. has allowed 32 sacks in 12 games, and while that is in the middle of the pack, it is letting its franchise quarterback get roughed up with seven hits last week and 46 on the season. This is a career high already for Patrick Mahomes, who is also under pressure 23.3% of the time. Humphries is unlikely to be worse, but how much can he help an offensive line that has allowed 20 sacks over the last five games?
The Chargers are averaging close to 1.5 takeaways per game, while the Chiefs are in the middle of the pack at a tick over one turnover per tilt.
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NFL DFS Picks for Chargers-Chiefs Sunday Night Football Week 14: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,800
FanDuel: $16,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.52
FanDuel: 18.35
This has been a wild season thus far for Kansas City, with Patrick Mahomes leading the team to four fourth quarter comebacks and a whopping six game-winning drives to his credit.
The 29-year-old is the reigning Super Bowl MVP, having won the last two awards, as well as another back in 2020. Mahomes guided his team to the title game in four of the last five seasons, but this year it has been smoke, mirrors and Lady Luck leading the way.
Wins are what count in the NFL, but for fantasy football, it is all about the statistics. Mahomes is having his worst season for touchdown, interception and sack rates, yards per game, attempts and completions, with the same results for air yards. The running back carousel has not helped, nor has the injury-thinned pass-catching corps, but still we must trust in The Wizard.
Mahomes tossed a trio of tuddies in three of his last five games and threw one score in each of the other two tilts. Last Friday, the former Texas Tech tactician had one lonely touchdown against Las Vegas, but his 306 passing yards pushed him over the vaunted milestone for the second time this season. He has a mere two picks in his last five games. That will be helpful since the Chargers harried Kirk Cousins into four interceptions, only 245 yards and no touchdowns last week.
Los Angeles has seen results all over the place over the last four games, with Cousins on the low side and Joe Burrow (356 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions) on the opposite end of the spectrum. Lamar Jackson had two touchdowns passing and one rushing, while Will Levis tossed a pair of scores, though neither cracked 177 aerial yards. This year 19 of the 30 offensive touchdowns for Kansas City have been through courtesy of Mahomes passes.
Kansas City Positional Preview
Running Back | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
Isaiah Pacheco stepped on the field for the first time since Week 2, getting in 26 snaps. The presumptive lead back for the Chiefs had seven carries for 44 yards, bringing in his lone target for five more. Kareem Hunt had one more snap, turning his seven totes into 15 yards and getting four targets from Mahomes for two receptions and 0 yards.
Coach Andy Reid sent rookie Carson Steele on the field for only three plays, though veteran Samaje Perine had 18 offensive snaps, converting his one look into a 15-yard catch.
This is a muddled mess at best, with Kansas City unlikely to push Pacheco beyond a 50% snap share as it will need him for the playoffs. He is likely to get the higher-value opportunities, but major volume is unlikely. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, the Chargers did not allow any running back touchdowns, though eight different backs had at least 50-plus combined yards and three topped the century mark.
Over the last two games, Derrick Henry rolled up 140 rushing yards, and Lamar Jackson and Justice Hill each ran in a touchdown. Then last week it was Bijan Robinson who cleared 100 yards rushing, along with a touchdown.
The salaries for the Kansas City backs are not going to break the bank, but it is hard to project the touches with any level of confidence, let alone the volume.
Wide Receiver | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
JuJu Smith-Schuster returned to action three weeks ago, but now Mecole Hardman is out. In that timeframe, no Kansas City wideout was on the field for more than 65% of the snaps. This is a four-headed beast that is not particularly scary, though there is always touchdown equity when Mahomes is throwing the ball.
Looking at the targets during this span makes more sense than worrying about who is on the field and when. DeAndre Hopkins had four, six and nine looks, though it is clear the team realizes it will need him upright if it wants to make a legitimate run for a third consecutive Super Bowl. The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Hopkins earmarked for five targets, which is reasonable for a baseline, and a couple more are readily attainable. Rookie Xavier Worthy has a 5.1-target projection, Smith-Schuster is tagged with 2.3 looks and Justin Watson rounds things out with 1.7.
On DraftKings, Smith-Schuster ($3,400) and Watson ($3,000) are discount dandies, and Hopkins ($8,400) and Worthy ($7,000) are fairly valued. It is harder to get to Watson ($7,500) and Smith-Schuster ($7,000) on FanDuel, which bears out in the projected popularity for each sitting in the low single digits. Hopkins ($10,000) is a borderline core play on the blue site, and Worthy ($9,500) is a fine tournament option.
Tight End | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
So much for the plan of taking it easy with Travis Kelce. The 35-year-old leads the team with 101 targets, getting 12 or more in four of the last six games. He has also played on just over 83% of the snaps this season since Kansas City has been in so many close games. His days of being a dynamic, game-changing force are long gone, but he can still get open in the seams and is a red zone threat.
The Chiefs run a lot of two-tight end sets, though that is because Kelce is usually lined up out wide or in the slot. Noah Gray is the key blocker in the running game, but he has shown that he is no slouch when Mahomes looks his way. Gray had two touchdowns in both Weeks 11 and 12. On Black Friday he was solid with six looks for four receptions and 58 yards. Gray is a nice salary saver who also projects for more (3.1) targets than Watson and Smith-Schuster at a significant savings on FanDuel ($6,000) and an appropriate premium on DraftKings ($4,400).
Kicker | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
Harrison Butker (knee) is out, and his replacement Spencer Shrader (hamstring) is now on the injured reserve as well. That means Matthew Wright is the likely kicker for another week, with Butker potentially returning for next Sunday’s game. Wright has played for six different franchises since the 2020 season, including a two-game stint with Kansas City in 2022. He also was on the practice squad of four other teams, including the Tampa Bay Vipers of the XFL. All told, he has 26 games under his belt while being appropriately average.
Defense | Chargers-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14
Los Angeles is allowing nearly three sacks per game, including five to the hapless Falcons last Sunday in Atlanta and four against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night football in Week 12. Kansas City is averaging two sacks per game and had more than two on just three occasions. The Chargers have suffered five lost fumbles and just one interception, leading the league with a scant half turnover per tilt. The Chiefs have just 10 takeaways in 12 games, but there is magic in the air at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL DFS Picks for Chargers-Chiefs Sunday Night Football Week 14: Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chargers-Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
- Justin Herbert: He will be the entire offense if McConkey is out.
- Will Dissly: Aggressive ranking but opens up everything and these are diffused offenses.
- Travis Kelce: Most trusted option on his team.
- Ladd McConkey: Even if he is semi-hobbled, the hope is that he gets enough short passes and moves the chains.
- Isaiah Pacheco: Volume unlikely, but touches should be high value.
- Cameron Dicker: The range and effectiveness are impressive; temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a light breeze and no precipitation expected.
- DeAndre Hopkins: Just marking time until the postseason.
- Xavier Worthy: A tick behind the veteran; likely to return punts with Hardman out.
- Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer: If McConkey is in, let personal preference be your guide. If he is out, then you can employ this duo on the same roster.
Secondary Options
- Kareem Hunt: Will get work between the 20s.
- Matthew Wright: Butker would have been in the top 10, for reference.
- Kimani Vidal: Likely benefits if McConkey is out since he could get some work out of the backfield.
- Gus Edwards: Decimal back; designated touchdown scorer inside the five.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Not a bad option with the K.C. protection issues but would be better at home.
Lottery Tickets
- Kansas City D/ST: Herbert does not allow many fantasy opportunities for opposing defenses.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson: Meh.
- Jalen Reagor and Derius Davis: Only if McConkey is inactive; Davis is the main kick returner.
- Samaje Perine: Last player worthy of his own line.
- Hasson Haskins, Carson Steele, Tucker Fisk, Stone Smartt, DJ Chark, Peyton Hendershot and Anthony Firkser: Projected this motley crew has a combined 4.3 offensive opportunities; good luck figuring out which is the “best” play. Only one of Hendershot and Firkser is likely to be active for K.C..
- Nikko Remigio, Baylor Cupp, Jaret Patterson, John Kelly and Laviska Shenault Jr.: If they beat us, so be it.
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