Thursday Night Football pits two AFC North rivals in a primetime matchup as the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers head west to take on the 2-8 Browns in Cleveland as 3.5-road favorites in a game with a 36.5 total.
The projected total and outcome for this Steelers-Browns matchup offer valuable strategic insights for NFL DFS in Week 12. In this breakdown, we’ll analyze key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you craft optimal lineups for Thursday Night Football.
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NFL DFS Picks: Steelers-Browns Thursday Night Football Week 12
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NFL DFS Picks for Steelers-Browns Thursday Night Football Week 12: Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $15,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 12.88
FanDuel: 12.73
Shout out to Russell Wilson, who has led the Steelers to four consecutive victories, building on the 4-2 start his counterpart Justin Fields crafted.
In the six games with Fields at the helm, the team averaged 26.7 passing attempts per game. That has increased to 30.3 under Wilson, though Fields was also rushing nearly 10 times per game, while that aspect is no longer in Wilson’s toolbox; he has 14 carries for 14 yards, counting kneeldowns.
On Sunday, Fields was in the game for three snaps, getting two carries for 17 yards, including a 9-yard run on the last drive of the game as the team was running out the clock in an 18-16 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Coach speak from Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith has indicated that Fields could see more action in different situations, and they have been clear that this is not a “gadget” situation. This probably has more of a potential impact on the running backs, though if a replacement occurs in the red zone, that will mean Wilson gets fewer high-value passing attempts.
This has been a great situation for Wilson, who is rehabilitating his image that was tarnished during his two seasons in Denver. He is back in a similar scheme to what coach Pete Carroll ran for a decade in Seattle, eschewing passing volume and leaning on the running game. That suits Wilson, and he clearly needs the threat of play-action to help hold defenders for that crucial heartbeat, as his vision and release are not as sharp and quick as they were once upon a time.
Pittsburgh Steelers Positional Preview
Running Back | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
In the last five games, Najee Harris played between 46% and 59% of the snaps, while Jaylen Warren was on the field for between 33% and 45%, with one outlier week of 51%. The two most recent games have seen the return of Cordarrelle Patterson, who has been between the lines for eight and 12 offensive plays.
Warren still averaged 11 carries over the last four games, while Harris is a tick shy of 20 totes per tilt in this timeframe. Comparing this duo over the last three matchups from a target perspective, Harris had four, zero and five, while Warren had three, two and four.
Finally, looking at red zone opportunities, Harris had the edge over the last four games with eight, three, five and four, and Warren saw four, three, three and none last week. The rest of the running backs have combined for two red zone chances on the season, with the most recent being all the way back in Week 6.
Harris carries a $3,000 premium over Warren on both DraftKings and FanDuel, where his wingman is $6,200 and $9,000, respectively. Warren likely has the slight edge in the passing game, and, of course, Harris has the short-yardage love. Both are in play, but each does curb the upside of the other. In what is likely to be a low-scoring game, touchdowns will be key and there is a chance Pittsburgh will get cute with Fields, which would hurt Harris.
The main DFS sites did a nice job with the salary cap differential, and DFS gamers should let personal preference be the ultimate deciding factor between this duo. There is a decent chance for precipitation in this game, and with temperatures in the mid-30s, that could create a miserable wintery mix. This probably helps both running backs since it will make the Pittsburgh play-calling even more conservative.
Wide Receiver | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
George Pickens saw nine, five, seven and 12 targets with Wilson under center. That represents 53% of the targets to wideouts, and given seven of his 14 red zone looks came in these four games, Pickens has to be thrilled with the quarterback change.
In a “Pittsburgh being Pittsburgh” moment, last week six — yes, SIX — different receivers saw the field. Scotty Miller and Ben Skowronek are likely to fade away as Mike Williams gets more comfortable in the offense, with Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson potentially losing snaps as well, or at the very least any value targets. Of course, those who have scrutinized the box score will note that Williams was actually not among the nine players who saw targets against Baltimore.
Pickens had 12, the tight ends combined for six, Harris saw five, Warren four, and then Skowronek, Patterson, Jefferson and Austin had five in total. Austin got the extra look.
Tight End | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
The main edge that Pat Freiermuth has held over Darnell Washington was having the most familiarity with the quarterbacks and play callers. That is out the window this season with the changes to both roles, which has this duo on a more even footing. Both are good run blockers and would find success with most teams in the league.
If you need the extra grand, Washington is a fine option on both sites. Otherwise this is another “personal preference” situation where there really isn’t a bad choice — well, at least prior to kickoff. In the four games with Wilson under center, Freiermuth had three, two, three and two targets, and Washington earned four, one, three and four. Again, this is a tossup.
MyCole Pruitt missed the last game with a knee injury, but he has been a full participant in practice. Connor Heyward has been a steady presence, but his offensive involvement consists of six targets this season, while Pruitt has four.
Kicker | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
Chris Boswell has been stellar this season, and he leads the league with 29 made field goals against just one miss. He is 9 of 10 (90%) from 50-plus yards, and he has two games with four field goals and two more with six. Wow!
Defense | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
Blitzburgh has not lived up to the moniker, collecting just 2.4 sacks per game. Cleveland has allowed a league-leading 46 sacks on the season. The Steelers rank sixth with 1.9 takeaways per game, while the Browns are surprisingly ceding just over one turnover per tilt.
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NFL DFS Picks for Steelers-Browns Thursday Night Football Week 12: Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
FanDuel: $15,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 13.58
FanDuel: 13.41
The Factory of Sadness continues to churn out record-level production in Cleveland. However, there has been a slight respite now that Deshaun Watson is out for the season and Jameis Winston has been installed as the starting quarterback over Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
In his three starts, Winston is averaging 27.7 completions on 44.3 attempts for 321.3 yards per game. Yes, he has 11 sacks and three interceptions against six touchdowns. That is one more touchdown than Watson in three fewer full games, with nearly 150 more passing yards per game.
Pittsburgh has allowed just nine passing touchdowns this season, and only Dak Prescott (352 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions), Aaron Rodgers (276/1/2) and Daniel Jones (264/0/1) cleared 250 aerial yards. The weather could potentially impact the passing game, though there really is not much wind in the forecast.
We have all seen Winston and his swashbuckling attitude, so even with this tough matchup, expect him to be willing to trade interceptions and sacks for yardage and hopefully a couple of scores.
Cleveland Browns Positional Preview
Running Back | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
Pittsburgh is allowing only 90.8 rushing yards per game, and while the Steelers are in the middle of the pack against the pass, it is pretty lazy analysis to say they are a “pass funnel” defense when it is just 214.5 yards per game. For perspective, that would rank 14th if this amalgamation of signal-callers were compared against the yardage leaderboard.
In his four games this season, Nick Chubb played 36%, 61%, 35% and 30% of the snaps. Jerome Ford was the RB2 over the last two games after missing Weeks 7 and 8. Conventional wisdom has Chubb earmarked for around 12 to 15 carries and one target, with Ford seeing 8 to 10 combined opportunities.
Chubb should get first- and second-down work, and Ford has a path to prominence if Pittsburgh can pull ahead by a couple of scores. Pierre Strong Jr. is likely to get a couple carries, with a chance at a couple more if Cleveland let’s potentially poor weather keep them focused on the ground game.
Wide Receiver | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
The casual fan may not realize it, but the Browns have had three different target leaders over the last four games since Amari Cooper was traded. In this stretch (Watson took most of the snaps in the first game), it was Cedric Tillman with 12, nine, 11 and eight targets, Elijah Moore with seven, 12, nine and eight targets, and Jerry Jeudy with five, eight, 11 and 11 targets.
Jamari Thrash had one target last week, which was the first for the fifth-round rookie out of Louisville. What we have here is a whole group of receivers benefiting from Winston, with no clear leader.
Tight End | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
David Njoku is more talented than Jordan Akins, but the former Houston Texan is getting some love with four looks in each of the last two games. Njoku is just behind the wideouts with 14, seven, seven and nine looks in the last four games. If the weather cooperates, there should be some potential PPR goodness available for the Browns pass-catchers.
Kicker | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
Dustin Hopkins would normally be on thin ice, having converted only 14 of 20 (70%) of his field goals and missing half of his eight from beyond 50 yards. However, he was a rare bright spot for the Browns last year with a 92% success rate. If the team were in contention for anything, there would likely be tryouts, but for now it is caveat emptor in the DFS world.
Defense | Steelers-Browns NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12
Pittsburgh has suffered just eight turnovers, while the Browns have a scant seven takeaways. Cleveland is averaging close to three sacks per game, and the Steelers are giving up around three each contest, despite the run-heavy approach.
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12: Rankings
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Now, let’s dive into the final rankings for this Steelers-Browns Thursday Night Football slate!
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Steelers-Browns
- George Pickens: Even if there is crummy weather, he can create YAC on short and medium routes.
- Jameis Winston: DFS is more fun with him back in the mix.
- Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren: The salary disparity makes both in play, Your Ol’ Pal likes Warren more, but that is personal preference, as mentioned above. It does not mean Harris is a bad or incorrect play.
- Russell Wilson: Sadly, the days of him running are long gone, but anytime I make sweeping comment like that, it seems like the player takes it personally. So congratulations on the impending rushing touchdown tonight.
- Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore: Things are crowded at the top tonight, but pretty much NOBODY grades out as the “must have” when factoring in salary and median fantasy projections.
- Chris Boswell: Volume is fickle for field goal kickers, but he has definitely been getting his share.
- David Njoku: Not quite on par with the wideouts but still a borderline core play.
- Nick Chubb: Meh, which is an odd comment for someone in the top 10, but here we are.
- Pittsburgh D/ST: Wishing this were a home game, but with the fans traveling so well, it could sound like one.
- Dustin Hopkins: Will his team give him many chances?
Secondary Options
- Jerome Ford: Sooooo close to being ranked ahead of Hopkins.
- Cleveland D/ST: It has been a rough year, but this unit still has moxie.
- Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington: Pick whichever has less projected popularity, which currently is Washington.
Lottery Tickets
- Mike Williams: Just one target in two games on his limited snaps; yes, it was a game-winning touchdown, but how did he not get a single look last week?
- Jordan Akins: Not a bad discount dandy at $1,600 on DraftKings.
- Cordarrelle Patterson and Pierre Strong Jr.: RB3s who each need multiple things to break their way in order to clear three or four fantasy points.
- Justin Fields: Playing for a random rushing touchdown or an in-game injury to Wilson; thin but not impossible.
- Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson: The difference between them and Williams is not much — yet, anyway.
- Kadarius Toney, Connor Heyward, Jamari Thrash, Ben Skowronek, Scotty Miller, D’Onta Foreman, Jaelon Darden, Geoff Swaim, Aaron Shampklin, Aaron Sorkin, Blake Whiteheart and Brave Heart: See you in the funny papers.
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