Monday Night Football has a 40.5 projected total as the Houston Texans head to Dallas to take on the reeling Cowboys, who are 7.0-point home dogs in Jerry World. With a tight spread and a higher total, this Week 11 showdown 11 demands sharp NFL DFS decisions. In this breakdown, we’ll explore the key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build standout lineups for the MNF slate.
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NFL DFS Picks: Texans-Cowboys Monday Night Football Week 11
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NFL DFS Picks for Texans-Cowboys Monday Night Football Week 11: Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $16,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.63
FanDuel: 19.31
Joe Mixon is having a strong season, despite missing a few games with an ankle injury. Mixon has a touchdown in each of his six full games, with seven rushing and one receiving. He also has 100-plus rushing yards in five of those appearances; the lone outlier was in Week 10 against Detroit, and he still had 90 combined yards.
Mixon has 99 carries in the last four games, so we should keep in mind that he may get in-game rest down the stretch if the Texans can force the Cowboys into a corner. Even in that case, Mixon is still likely to have 100-plus yards and a touchdown because Dallas is allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game, trailing only the 160.1 of the Carolina Panthers.
Since Mixon returned to action, Dare Ogunbowale has seen five targets while averaging close to a 25% snap share. He has just six carries as Mixon truly has been a “bell cow” back. Dameon Pierce is back from a groin injury that kept him out of the last two games, so it will be interesting to see how things are reshuffled. Pierce has played in just four games this season due to two different injury layoffs, but he has been ahead of Ogunbowale the last two seasons when both were healthy.
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Houston Texans Positional Preview
Quarterback | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
C.J. Stroud has looked like a mortal this season, tossing just 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. Last year was a magical season for the former Ohio State Buckeye, and the league has not been caught off guard. There have also been injuries to all three of his wideouts, and Stefon Diggs has been lost for the season.
Dallas has allowed “only” 210.8 passing yards per game, but it has been lit up for 15 touchdowns while managing only five interceptions. This has resulted in one of the best quarterback ratings for opposing signal-callers, and the 8.4 yards per attempt are behind only the 8.5 that the Jacksonville Jaguars allow. This is definitely a get0right spot for Stroud, especially with the Texans having dropped the last two games and three of the last four, so tonight would be a great time for a “show me” victory.
Wide Receiver | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
Nico Collins missed the last five games with a hamstring injury, though word around the campfire is that he could have pushed it last week if it were a playoff game. Through five games, Collins was averaging 113.4 receiving yards per appearance, which was leading the league. Currently, he is ahead of Ja’Marr Chase (96.0 YPG) and Justin Jeffersons (91.2 YPG), which is rarified air.
Tank Dell should be on the field for around three-quarters of the offensive plays while the game is competitive. Though he is only $1,000 cheaper than Collins on DraftKings, he comes with a $4,500 discount on FanDuel, which also is increasing his popularity on the blue site.
Xavier Hutchison has been getting a lot of time on the field with Collins out, but he has not really done much with his opportunities. Best guess is he will take the biggest haircut for playing time, and John Metchie III should also slide back to around a 40% snap share. Robert Woods is likely to drop to the 20% range, depending on how much Houston wants to play its stars if the game becomes lopsided.
Tight End | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
Dalton Schultz is going against his former team, but this has been the least productive season of his career. Not only does he not have a touchdown, but he also hasn’t cracked double-digit fantasy points, even in full-PPR scoring formats. Schultz still has been on the field around 70% of the time, but rookie Cade Stover is pushing for close to a 50% snap share himself. The former Ohio State tight end has just 13 targets on the season, but seven have come in the last three games.
Teagan Quitoriano does not have a target this season, but he has averaged around 15 offensive snaps over his five games.
Kicker | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
Ka’imi Fairbairn is a solid kicker who has an 86.5% conversion rate for his career. He has made 11 of 14 (79%) of his field goal attempts from beyond 50 yards this year and 84.5% of his last 29 since the start of the 2022 season.
Defense | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
Last week the Texans did not have a single sack for the first time this year. Of course, they did have five interceptions but still lost the game to the Lions on Sunday Night Football. Tonight anything less than 4.5 combined sacks and takeaways would be a disappointment.
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NFL DFS Picks for Texans-Cowboys Monday Night Football Week 11: CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,800
FanDuel: $13,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 14.13
FanDuel: 11.64
There is no perfuming this pig that is the metaphorical reference to the Dallas season. Dak Prescott is out for the season, and he will be having hamstring surgery, so he should be good to go for next year.
That still leaves eight games that CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the pass-catchers will have some combination of Cooper Rush and Trey Lance under center.
Last week, Lamb had 10 of the 29 passing targets while playing on 83% of the snaps. That is actually right around his typical presence on the field, which is good. The Houston defense being able to key on him all night with no other offensive options worthy of extra attention is bad.
The Stokastic projections have assigned the Dallas passing game 32.3 attempts, 18.4 receptions and 195.3 yards, accompanied by a strong chance of a touchdown and a turnover. Lamb should see another 8 to 10 targets tonight, but it will be a borderline miracle if he is able to clear 100 yards. Something around 65 yards is the median outcome.
Jalen Tolbert has cemented himself as the WR2 with Brandin Cooks missing the last five games due to an injury. The much-maligned third-round selection out of Alabama has been on the field for at least 89% of the offensive plays during this period, with 95% and 93% participation during the last two weeks. He should see around half a dozen targets, but the 11 he had during the last fortnight resulted in only six catches for 33 yards and a touchdown.
Jalen Brooks should see action on 60% of the snaps while providing a $2,600 discount to Tolbert on DraftKings ($2,000) and $3,000 of salary relief one FanDuel ($6,500). He has five and four targets over the last two tilts, converting three into 30 yards. Yikes.
Jalen Cropper (yes, the Cowboys have three wideouts named Jalen) is an undrafted rookie out of Fresno State who saw his first action last week, stepping between the lines for 12 offensive plays and seeing no targets. Ryan Flournoy had two looks in Week 9, but the sixth-round rookie from Southeast Missouri State is a desperation play at best.
Last but not least is KaVontae Turpin, who handles the kick return duties while also getting a few offensive plays each game. Against the Eagles he was on the field for only eight plays with no opportunities. Most defenses will key on him for potential jet sweeps or reverses, so his best path to any fantasy production will be on a bubble screen or a quick crossing route.
Dallas Cowboys Positional Preview
Quarterback | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
Shout out to Rush for leading the Cowboys to a 4-1 record as the backup field general in 2022. Of course, that season the Dallas defense was solid, the offensive line excellent and, of course, Tony Pollard had 1,007 rushing yards on his way to Pro Bowl recognition, despite Ezekiel Elliott being the “starter” in 14 of the 15 games he played.
In his five starts from Weeks 2 through 6, Rush averaged 16.6 completions on 28.6 attempts for 191.2 passing yards. He had five touchdowns, three interceptions and only 9 rushing yards. It is hard to expect anything above that tonight, plus there is a chance that Lance will get a plays here and there. Vaya con Dios, mis amigos.
Running Back | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
Rico Dowdle is driving the clown car that is the Dallas rushing attack, which has been hamstrung by a poor offensive line, plus the Jones’ family ego that keeps pushing out an aging Ezekiel Elliott. At least it would appear that the Dalvin Cook experiment has ended at one game.
Four targets went to the running backs against Philly, with Dowdle seeing three and Hunter Luepke one. Elliott has just three targets in the last six games, so there is unlikely to be much PPR goodness for this motley crew. Elliott had six carries for 22 yards, which was just the second time in his last seven outings where he topped 20 yards.
By comparison, Dowdle’s worst outing was five carries for 25 yards against Detroit, though he has only 373 rushing yards and no touchdowns on the season. The 26-year-old UDFA out of South Carolina does have three receiving scores, but a mere 29 targets for 24 catches and 166 yards is just not going to get it done for anyone.
Luepke is more of a pass protection, fullback type, and over the last four games he has been on the field for around 20 plays, garnering two totes for 5 yards and three targets for two receptions and 4 yards. My sincere condolences to the Dallas fans.
Tight End | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
Jake Ferguson is second on the team with 57 targets, and he missed Week 2 due to an injury. Five of the six targets to the tight end position went his way last week, and he should see another half dozen opportunities tonight. He is much better when the defense is not sitting on him, but with the dreadful running game, a backup signal-caller who is barely a replacement-level option and an offensive line that has holes everywhere, this game is shaping up to be a laugher for Ferguson and his mates.
Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford have combined for 17 snaps each of the last two games, with Schoonmaker getting the lone target in this timeframe.
Kicker | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
Second-year kicker Brandon Aubrey has been the lone bright spot this season, and he has converted on 22 of 24 (92%) field goal attempts, including a 65-yarder that is the second-longest in NFL history. In his career, he is 19 of 20 (95%) from 50-plus yards, which is absurd.
Defense | Texans-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11
The Cowboys did rally for five sacks last Sunday against the Eagles, and they have 15 over the last five games. Turnovers are a different story, with just one interception and three fumble recoveries in this timeframe. The Texans do allow nearly three sacks per game, which is in the bottom quartile of the league. Of course, Houston may be able to rely on the running game tonight, which could limit the fantasy potential for the Dallas defense.
NFL DFS Picks for Texans-Cowboys Monday Night Football Week 11: Rankings
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Now, let’s break down the final rankings for the Texans-Cowboys Monday Night Football slate.
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Texans-Cowboys
- Joe Mixon: How many lineups will gamers make without him?
- Nico Collins: Should be back to full health.
- C.J. Stroud: Time for some pinball numbers for this pedestrian passing game.
- CeeDee Lamb: Tough year for the All-Pro.
- Tank Dell: It would be a complete shock if neither Houston wideout clears 100 yards tonight.
- Brandon Aubrey: We have to play at least one Cowboy; why not their best offensive option?
- Ka’imi Fairbairn: Salary saver.
- Rico Dowdle: Best chance of a touchdown.
- Cooper Rush: One of two starting quarterbacks in the player pool.
- Houston D/ST: Rare appearance for a defense in the top 10 this season.
Secondary Options
- The Jalens: Tolbert and Brooks, but not Cropper.
- Dalton Schultz: Time for a “Remember Me?!” touchdown to get off the schneid.
- John Metchie III: Looked poised for a breakout on Sunday Night Football; was that an anomaly or the start of a trend?
Lottery Tickets
- Dallas D/ST: Houston does allow sacks.
- Xavier Hutchison: Squandered a great opportunity with all of the injuries.
- Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale: Mop-up duty will be their destiny.
- Ezekiel Elliott: Long ago, in a galaxy far, far away …
- KaVontae Turpin: Lightning in a bottle but a longshot to be released.
- Cade Stover: Not his time just yet.
- Hunter Luepke and Dalvin Cook: Hahahahahaha, Luepke will at least be on the field.
- Robert Woods and Steven Sims: One will be inactive; both have returned punts and kickoffs this season.
- Trey Lance: Needs a schemed red zone score or an early benching of Rush.
- Luke Schoonmaker, Teagan Quitoriano, Ryan Flournoy, Brevyn Spann-Ford, Jalen Cropper, Deuce Vaughn, J.J. Taylor, David Carr and Troy Aikman: Not tonight.
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