After a couple of tasty appetizer games on Thursday and Friday night, the main course that is the NFL returns for real on Sunday with a 12-game Week 1 NFL main slate. Today, we’ll walk through the top NFL DFS Picks for Week 1 with an emphasis on expecting the unexpected early.
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NFL DFS Picks for Week 1: Expect the Unexpected in the Season Opener
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NFL DFS Picks for Week 1: Quarterbacks
Cash: Anthony Richardson (IND): $6,300
As in NBA and MLB DFS, we generally want to follow the ownership at quarterback in cash games. The last time we saw Richardson, he was averaging 23.4 DraftKings points per game, and he looked unstoppable before getting hurt and missing the rest of his rookie season.
Richardson combines elite speed with a deadly throwing arm, making his floor/ceiling combination one of the best in all of NFL DFS. While he certainly isn’t a lock for tournaments, Richardson is the clear cash-game quarterback, as he is expected to be far and away the highest-owned signal caller on the board.
GPP: Josh Allen (BUF): $8,000
One of the top players in all of NFL DFS, Allen seems to be falling through the cracks a bit on DraftKings. Though he will still get some love as the top projected quarterback on the slate, Allen’s $8,000 price tag is acting as a detriment for the field to get to him as much as they should.
As of this writing, Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence are all projected to be higher-owned than Allen, with C.J. Stroud and Baker Mayfield nipping on his ownership heels.
With Buffalo heading into Week 1 as a 6.5-point home favorite against Arizona, Allen couldn’t ask to be in a better spot to start the season. I expect the best he has to offer in his first game after the Stefon Diggs trade.
Other quarterbacks to consider for NFL DFS GPPs: Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert
NFL DFS Picks for Week 1: Running Backs
Cash: Alvin Kamara (NO): $6,700
Although he isn’t not the fantasy superstar he was a couple of years ago, Alvin Kamara is projected to be the second-highest owned player on the slate, behind only Tyreek Hill. Matched up with a Panthers defense that was amongst the worst in football last season, Kamara and the Saints find themselves in a very advantageous position heading into Week 1.
While New Orleans’ offense has issues of its own, this is the freshest Kamara will be all season, and there is a lot to like about him both in the running game and in the passing game against the Panthers. Similar to Richardson, Kamara isn’t a lock for tournaments, but in cash games, he is a clear plug-in and move on type of play.
Other running backs to consider for NFL DFS cash games: Bijan Robinson, Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker III, Zamir White
GPP: Jonathan Taylor (NO): $6,700
The most expensive running back on the slate, Taylor is also my favorite back for tournaments. With the field flocking to Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson, it makes sense that Taylor isn’t getting a ton of love, especially at his expensive price tag.
That said, there’s a reason Taylor is the priciest tailback on the board, and his upside in this spot is right there with any other running back. Taylor only averaged 15.9 DraftKings points per game in an injury-filled 2023 season, but expect that number to rise drastically with both him and Richardson healthy in the Colts’ backfield.
Other running backs to consider for NFL DFS GPPs: James Cook, James Conner, Austin Ekeler, Zack Moss, Tyjae Spears
NFL DFS Picks for Week 1: Wide Receivers
Cash: Tyreek Hill (MIA): $8,700
Hill is undoubtedly the most electrifying player in football, and he is always the riskiest of fades on any DFS slate. In cash games, however, there is no need to worry about fading him, as he’s probably the first player to lock into any cash lineup.
Priced at $8,700, well under his average price tag last season of $9,176, there’s absolutely no getting away from Hill in cash games.
Hill combines the highest upside of any player in the league with a floor that would look like the average player’s ceiling. As of this writing, Hill is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate at 27.6%. Expect that number to be even higher in cash games. Lock him in quickly and move on.
GPP: Tank Dell (HOU): $5,500
Dell is the least expensive of the three main Texans’ receivers, and he’s easily my favorite of the bunch. After emerging as a legit top option for C.J. Stroud last season, Dell went down in Week 13 with a broken fibula that unfortunately ended his season. Before getting hurt, Dell racked up 47 catches (on 75 targets) for 709 yards and seven touchdowns in 11 regular-season games.
Dell was on his way to a prolific rookie season, and the chemistry he and Stroud share is undeniable. While it’s not ideal that he has to share targets with Diggs and Nico Collins, that’s part of the reason why Dell is only $5,500 on DraftKings. Combine his cheap price tag with a modest 5.9% ownership projection, and Dell looks like one of the top tournament options on the entire slate.
Cash & GPP: Andrei Iosivas (CIN): $3,000
For those of you deep in the College Football streets, you may remember Iosivas as one of the best receivers in the country while at Princeton. Now in his second year in the NFL, Iosivas is expected to garner a much bigger role than he had as a rookie.
After apparently turning heads at practice all off-season, Iosivas should get his chance to shine right away in Week 1 in a high-upside spot against New England.
With Tee Higgins already ruled out and Ja’Marr Chase expected to be limited after missing a good portion of training camp, Iosivas could emerge as one of Cincinnati’s top weapons on Sunday. At only $3,000 on DraftKings, Iosivas is a free square in both cash games and GPPs.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 1: Tight Ends
Cash: Kyle Pitts (ATL): $4,600
Kyle Pitts has undoubtedly been a fantasy disappointment throughout the entirety of his first four seasons in the NFL. There was a reason Pitts was selected fourth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, however, and there’s a lot to like about him heading into this season.
After spending the majority of his career without a bonafide signal caller, Pitts should benefit greatly from having Kirk Cousins throwing him the rock. Though Cousins isn’t a superstar, he makes everyone around him better, and Pitts should be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Many expect Cousins and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to propel Pitts to a breakout season, and at only $4,600 on DraftKings, he might be the cheapest he will be all season. Though there are plenty of reasons to fade Pitts in tournaments, he’s the clear top tight end for cash games.
GPP: Trey McBride (ARI): $6,100
Truth be told, I think the Cardinals-Bills game has a ton of low-owned upside in tournaments. While everyone (including myself) is enamored with newly minted Cardinals wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., McBride quietly emerged as one of the top tight ends in DFS last season.
Watching the Cardinals play, the rapport between Kyler Murray and McBride was extremely evident, and with Murray now fully healthy, there’s reason to like McBride even more heading into this season.
Though Harrison will surely eat up a good amount of Arizona’s target share, he will also open up the middle of the field for McBride to get much cleaner looks than he would’ve last season. As of this writing, McBride is projected to be only 7.8% owned on DraftKings, and he’s the top tight end to target in tournaments.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 1: D/ST
Cash DST Options: Titans, Buccaneers, Bills, Seahawks
GPP DST Options: Vikings, Bears, Giants, Falcons
For more NFL DFS Picks and analysis, tune into Live Before Lock every Sunday!
