NFL DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic’s Ownership Projections to Stay Ahead of the Field

For NFL Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) players, mastering ownership projections can be as crucial as selecting high-scoring players. Stokastic’s NFL DFS Ownership Projections, available for major platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo, offer valuable insights to elevate your lineup strategy and gain an edge over the competition. Let’s dive into how to use Stokastic’s NFL Ownership Projections to form a contrarian strategy in NFL DFS.


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NFL DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic’s Ownership Projections

Stokastic’s ownership projections are released on Tuesday night for the Main Slate and are updated continuously to reflect breaking news, including last-minute injury reports. These projections are pivotal as they reveal the anticipated popularity of players across various contests. For instance, if a high-performing player like Patrick Mahomes is projected to be in only 10% of lineups, whereas another top player is in 90%, the impact of their performance can be substantial.

Take a look at the interface of our NFL DFS Ownership Projections:

Consider this scenario: if Mahomes performs exceptionally well while being in just 10% of lineups, you are competing against only a small fraction of players (10,000 out of 100,000). This smaller subset significantly increases your chances of finishing ahead. Conversely, if a popular player performs well, you will have to compete with a much larger group (90,000), making it harder to secure a top spot.

For more targeted plays, explore the ownership projections for smaller slates — like early, afternoon, or primetime games — available on Stokastic’s site-specific pages for DraftKings or FanDuel. Understanding ownership projections helps in building unique lineups that are less likely to be duplicated by the majority of your competitors, thus enhancing your chances of winning.

In essence, integrating ownership projections into your strategy can transform how you approach NFL DFS contests. By selecting players with lower projected ownership but high potential, you can effectively reduce the number of competitors you need to outscore, providing a clearer path to DFS success. For more detailed analysis, check out Alex’s video on the subject for additional insights.

Additional NFL DFS Strategy Tips

Don’t miss out on our Single-Lineup Simulator, a premier tool within our NFL DFS packages! Check out our comprehensive Single-Lineup Simulator guide on using this simulator to construct and assess individual lineups for optimal ROI.

Here’s a sneak peek at how the Single-Lineup Simulator evaluated a lineup for a DraftKings Showdown slate. Ready to level up? Subscribe to our Lite, Core or Max NFL packages and start enhancing your lineup ROI today!

Author
Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.

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