NFL Daily Fantasy Boom vs Bust Tool Projections

Below you can see Stokastic's NFL Boom/Bust Probability Tool for this week's DraftKings and FanDuel slate. This data gives the user an idea how likely a player is to meet their ceiling and floor, relative to their median projections. You're seeing a PREVIEW of our industry-leading NFL DFS data for today's DraftKings slate. The preview does not contain all the data for today's slate. Join for the full list of our NFL DFS booms and busts!

Stokastic's Week 12 NFL DFS Boom-Bust Tool Preview

Name	Team	Salary	Position	Projection	Std Dev	Ceiling	Floor	Bust%	Boom%	Slate
Lamar Jackson	BAL	8,000	QB	23.1	8.6	28.9	17.3	44.7	6.0	Primetime
Derrick Henry	BAL	7,800	RB	17.2	7.4	22.2	12.2	47.6	6.0	Primetime
Justice HIll	BAL	5,100	RB	6.2	4.2	9.0	3.3	83.1	0.0	Primetime
Patrick Ricard	BAL	4,000	RB	0.3	0.9	0.9	-0.3	100.0	0.0	Primetime
Keaton Mitchell	BAL	4,000	RB	0.5	1.2	1.3	-0.2	100.0	0.0	Primetime
Zay Flowers	BAL	6,700	WR	14.7	8.1	20.2	9.2	46.9	6.3	Primetime
Rashod Bateman	BAL	4,300	WR	8.8	6.2	12.9	4.6	47.0	2.1	Primetime
Nelson Agholor	BAL	3,300	WR	3.0	3.5	5.4	0.7	79.9	0.0	Primetime
Diontae Johnson	BAL	4,500	WR	2.9	3.3	5.1	0.7	96.4	0.0	Primetime
Tylan Wallace	BAL	3,100	WR	1.1	2.3	2.7	-0.4	97.0	0.0	Primetime
Devontez Walker	BAL	3,000	WR	0.1	0.6	0.5	-0.3	100.0	0.0	Primetime
Mark Andrews	BAL	4,100	TE	8.2	6.0	12.3	4.2	47.4	3.9	Primetime
Isaiah Likely	BAL	3,900	TE	6.8	5.4	10.5	3.2	53.8	1.7	Primetime
Charlie Kolar	BAL	2,500	TE	1.1	2.3	2.6	-0.4	89.9	0.0	Primetime
Justin Tucker	BAL	7,200	K	9.3	5.0	12.7	5.9	88.4	0.0	Primetime
Ravens	BAL	3,000	DST	6.0	4.7	9.2	2.8	43.4	2.5	Primetime
Justin Herbert	LAC	5,400	QB	20.3	7.8	25.5	15.0	21.7	13.9	Primetime
J.K. Dobbins	LAC	7,000	RB	13.1	5.8	17.0	9.2	61.6	0.9	Primetime
Gus Edwards	LAC	4,300	RB	5.1	3.7	7.6	2.6	80.9	0.0	Primetime
Hassan Haskins	LAC	4,000	RB	1.2	1.8	2.4	0.0	100.0	0.0	Primetime
Scott Matlock	LAC	0	RB	0.6	1.4	1.5	-0.3	-2,146,826,273.0	0.0	Primetime
Joshua Palmer	LAC	4,200	WR	7.6	5.7	11.4	3.7	53.7	0.8	Primetime
Ladd McConkey	LAC	6,000	WR	15.4	8.5	21.1	9.6	36.4	11.9	Primetime
Quentin Johnston	LAC	4,900	WR	11.5	6.9	16.1	6.9	39.9	5.1	Primetime
Derius Davis	LAC	3,000	WR	0.8	1.6	1.9	-0.3	99.6	0.0	Primetime
Jalen Reagor	LAC	3,000	WR	2.3	3.2	4.4	0.1	81.9	0.0	Primetime
Will Dissly	LAC	3,500	TE	10.9	6.8	15.5	6.3	25.4	16.8	Primetime
Stone Smartt	LAC	2,500	TE	1.3	2.3	2.8	-0.3	88.6	0.0	Primetime
Tucker Fisk	LAC	2,500	TE	1.0	2.2	2.5	-0.4	91.5	0.0	Primetime
Cameron Dicker	LAC	7,500	K	9.0	5.0	12.4	5.6	92.0	0.0	Primetime
Chargers	LAC	2,700	DST	4.5	4.9	7.9	1.2	49.5	2.2	Primetime

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About Our NFL DFS Boom-Bust Tool for Week 12

In all DFS sports, being able to compare the strength of a player each day versus their popularity is key to success. For each player, we calculate the standard deviation based on a variety of factors and use that to calculate the ceiling (75th-percentile performance) the floor (25th-percentile performance) and the probability that they will bust (not meeting value) or boom (large field GPP winning player). Combining these metrics, you will be able to gain an edge on everyone by identifying under-owned or over-owned players.

The Boom and Bust percentages are determined by the probability that each player will reach a target score determined by position and salary. For instance on DK the average points/$1k for QB's is about 3x while other positions about 2.4x. On top of that on a full slate your team has to overperform by about 100 points, which is divvied up across the 9 roster spots.

Boom% is the probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc. Bust% is the probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fpts. Ceiling is the 75th percentile performance and the Floor is the 25th percentile performance. Finally, Optimal% is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup that slate.

How To Use Our NFL DFS Boom-Bust Tool

View the video below to see how our NFL DFS booms and busts can be used to build successful lineups.

It's our mission to give a wealth of analysis in order to enhance your DFS lineups. Take a look at the DraftKings Reignmakers, FanDuel ownership & our showdown ownership projections. Remember our DFS simulator to guide you through projected outcomes. For additional football information, explore our FanDuel NFL DFS projections & DraftKings ownership.

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Author

Alex Baker

A self-proclaimed U.S. history buff, stats enthusiast, and rabid fan of anything Detroit (yes, even the Lions), Alex started playing daily fantasy sports in 2013 and never looked back. After graduating with a degree in mathematics from Washington University in St. Louis in 2008, he began developing advanced statistical models and applied his unique skill-set first to poker, then as a full-time DFS player. He has since dominated DFS, becoming a fixture on leaderboards and cementing his position as the top-ranked overall player according to RotoGrinders. Competing in most guaranteed prize pool tournaments, he has ranked in the top 3 across major sports, including NBA, NFL, NHL, PGA, and MLB. He enjoys sharing his knowledge of fantasy sports with new and experienced players alike. Career Highlights: No. 1 Overall Ranking; 14x FanDuel $100k winner, 11x DraftKings Hundred-Thousandaire; 20x Live Final qualifier. You can contact him on Twitter @awesemodfs or by emailing [email protected].