Chiefs-Falcons DFS Picks: Week 3 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS

Sunday Night Football has a 46.5 projected total, with the Chiefs a 3.0-point road favorite as they travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. This total and close matchup add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down the Chiefs-Falcons matchup for Week 3 Sunday Night Football, analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Chiefs-Falcons DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football Week 3 NFL DFS

Stokastic provides everything you need to crush NFL DFS, regardless of the slate, format, or platform. If you haven’t already, sign up for a Stokastic+ NFL package to access great resources like the NFL DFS Sims and Lineup Generator, along with essential data such as NFL DFS projections, ownership projections and NFL Top Stacks!

With full coverage of Sunday night’s Chiefs-Falcons Showdown, let’s dive into the top plays and strategies for this thrilling slate.

Chiefs-Falcons DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3: Rashee Rice

It would seem that Rice is not going to be seeing any sort of suspension this season for his off-field kerfuffle, which is why there was so much uncertainty for him in the fantasy drafting world. Typically it is more of an injury concern like with teammate Marquise “Hollywood” Brown injuring his shoulder in the first preseason game. His recovery was not going to be sufficient with rest and rehabilitation, so he is now out for the season after opting for surgery.

The important fantasy takeaways are that Rice is at full health, the presumed WR2 is not available, and how many of you already forgot Hardman was still on the team?

That leaves rookie Xavier Worthy as the next man up in just his third professional game. In the opener, he had three targets, catching two for 47 yards and a score while also getting one rushing attempt for a 21-yard touchdown.

Week 2 saw him on the field for 10 more plays, with four targets for two receptions and 17 yards and another rush for 5 yards. There is no questioning his speed, but his diminutive frame (5-foot-11, 165 pounds) is going to have him likely getting touches farther away from the line of scrimmage. That, of course, can be overcome by having both the most creative on-field passer ever seen in the history of the NFL and one of the best offensive minds. Expect some manufactured touches such as the end-arounds and jet sweeps to continue, with potential misdirection plays inside the 20-yard line. Volume will be a different story.

After this duo, it has been Patrick Mahomes’ buddy Justin Watson with one and two targets, while Juju Smith-Schuster has one and zero after spending last year in New England. Skyy Moore and his butterfingers saw action on 10 and five plays in the first two games, with no targets. Hardman is handling kickoffs and punt returns, and he has one offensive snap this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview

Quarterback | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

This is the second of five primetime games for Kansas City, with the Chiefs typically getting half a dozen per season prior to the playoffs. Mahomes was named to a sixth consecutive Pro Bowl team last year and, of course, his third Super Bowl championship and MVP. Between all of the accolades and even the most casual fans having seen Mahomes in action multiple times, there is not much analysis left to add.

Atlanta has faced two rushing quarterbacks in Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts, winning a rock fight of a game against the former and surprisingly stealing a win against the latter on the last drive of Monday Night Football. This duo was 40 of 53 (75.5%) for 339 yards, one touchdown and one interception while rushing 27 times for 142 yards and a score. Going against Mahomes tonight is a major dichotomy in game plans and something that was really not even replicated by Hurts, who is also a decent passer.

That should give the edge to Mahomes in the early going, but he still will need to get the ball into the end zone to earn his lofty, but absolutely appropriate, salary on DraftKings ($10,000) and FanDuel ($17,000). The 29-year-old is nimble in the pocket, and while he is an effective scrambler, he typically adds only 15 to 20 yards on the ground, with his safety being paramount over a few extra yards.

Running Back | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Isiah Pacheco suffered a lower leg fracture in Week 2 action, which is likely to sideline him for a couple of months and potential the season. Former first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire was already on the injured reserve, so that leaves rookie Carson Steele and veteran Samaje Perine, whom the Chiefs claimed after Denver released him in the final roster cutdown.

Perine was a fourth-round selection out of Oklahoma, joining Washington in 2017. He led the team in rushing that year with 603 yards while starting eight of 16 games.

Of course, he was competing with the likes of Chris Thompson, Robert Kelly, Kapri Bibbs and Byron Marshall, which is quite the “Who’s Who” of “Remember that guy?!” players. On a wild note, Terrelle Pryor was also a wide receiver on that Washington squad.

The next year Adrian Peterson was brought in, which consolidated the backfield work and limited Perine to only five games. He was waived the next preseason, spending time with the Bengals and Dolphins before Cincinnati signed him for the following year.

Perine was a solid RB2 with Cincinnati for three years, starting in four of 48 games then getting one start in his lone season with Denver. The 29-year-old is excellent in pass protection while also being able to contribute as a runner and receiver. He has averaged 4.0 rushing yards per carry for his career and close to 8 yards per reception, highlighted by bringing in 50 of 56 (89.3%) of his targets last year.

The expectation is that Steele will be the starter and get early-down work, though coach Reid is likely to rely on Perine in high-leverage situations. After racking up nearly 2,800 combined yards, along with 22 touchdowns at Ball State over two seasons, Steele transferred to UCLA last year. He ended up with another 1,010 combined yards and eight scores, which caught the eye of Kansas City and earned the 2020 Mr. Football of Indiana a contract as a UDFA.

Steele is not particularly fast (4.8 range in the 40-yard dash), but he is wildly strong, even for his 6-foot-0, 228-pound frame.

The Stokastic projections have him for 12.92 carries, 51.66 rushing yards, 2.7 targets, 1.82 receptions and 12.7 yards for his statistical baseline. He has nearly a 50% chance of scoring a touchdown as well.

Tight End | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

The plan was for this to be a lighter workload for Travis Kelce, with the future Hall of Famer celebrating his 35th birthday in two weeks. However, he has been on the field for 89% and 91% of the snaps. Of course, for some of those he is mostly a decoy presence, with the possibility of him doing something forcing the defense to keep tabs on him. He has only four and three targets in these games, which is just fine for the Chiefs, who are content to have him split out wide or in the slot to protect him from injury.

It is important to note that three of his seven targets have been in the red zone, so while the overall volume is not likely to be there on a game-to-game basis unless needed to secure a victory, he still is a multi-touchdown threat every week.

Noah Gray signed a three-year, $18 million deal, and he has seen his role increase every year. The former 2021 fifth-round selection out of Duke is a capable blocker and receiver who should be getting more of the hum-drum workload since protecting Kelce is a priority. Through the first two games, Gray has played on 54% and 57% of the offensive snaps, though all three of his targets were in Week 1. Expecting around three targets per game, with the potential to double that, is a reasonable baseline going forward.

Jared Wiley will be serving as the third tight end, typically getting on the field for around 20% of the snaps. He was a fourth-round selection out of TCU, playing his final two seasons with the Horned Frogs after spending his first three years with the University of Texas. During his time at TCU, he totaled 765 yards on 71 receptions, scoring a lofty 12 touchdowns. Like Gray, he will be involved more as a blocker but profiles to at least be adequate with the ball in his hands, so there are options after Kelce.

Kicker | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Harrison Butker nailed all five of his attempts from beyond 50-yards last year after missing four of seven in 2022. Most of his games are outdoors, so that needs to be considered, plus he was just handed a major contract. He has an 89.3% conversion rate on field goals and has missed only five PATs in his most recent 133 (96.2%) attempts.

Defense | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

The Chiefs are looking for their first interception of the season, but they have recovered a pair of fumbles. Atlanta has three turnovers in the first two games, and with a new head coach and quarterback, it is hard to consider last year’s numbers for any forward projections. The Falcons have ceded a trio of takedowns on their quarterback, which is about right considering they worked entirely out of shotgun or pistol formations in the opener.

Ready to crush your lineups with Stokastic’s advanced NFL DFS Sims? Check out our complete guide to the NFL Sims Tool and discover how to get the most out of your Sims subscription for the 2024 season!

Kansas City Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3: Bijan Robinson

Backup Tyler Allgeier has played on 10 and 13 snaps, with Avery Williams getting both of his offensive plays last week. Allgeier tallied 21 yards on three totes in Week 1, getting nine for 53 yards in the second game. He also converted his first target of the season into a 12-yard reception, and something approaching double-digit combined carries and targets is a decent baseline. Although it was for a different coaching staff, Allgeier did have 1,035 rushing yards in his rookie season, and he has shown decent hands.

This looks like it is going to be a two-man show, which gives both backs a solid floor and access to upside. Obviously, Robinson is the focus, but with his reasonable salaries on DraftKings ($5,200) and FanDuel ($8,000), Allgeier could easily find himself in a profitable situation. Both backs can be played together on the same roster since they are monopolizing the workload.

Atlanta Falcons Positional Preview

Quarterback | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Kirk Cousins looked less tentative on Monday Night Football as he continues to work his way back from a ruptured Achilles. The team actually was able to use play-action passes, which was a wrinkle that it avoided in the first game. Kansas City had a strong passing defense last year and should continue doing a good job of taking away anything over the top. Of course, Cousins is perfectly content to work the shorter routes, though that likely takes the 300-yard bonus off the table on DraftKings, even if he has 35-plus attempts.

After handing out a pair of pickles and throwing for just one touchdown against Pittsburgh, Cousins avoided any interceptions in the second game while tossing two tuddies, including the game-winner on his final drive. He should be in line for a multi-touchdown game tonight, though that is already baked into his salary.

Wide Receiver | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Drake London has played on all but two snaps this season, with former Chicago Bear Darnell Mooney missing only three. Shockingly, it has been Ray-Ray McCloud III who has moved into prominence, with fellow newcomer Rondale Moore landing on the injured reserve following a knee injury in August. McCloud led the team with seven targets in the opener, which earned him an increase from 57% of the snaps to every offensive play on Monday. He had five targets against Philadelphia, while London and Mooney each moved from three in the first game to seven in the second.

No other wideout has a look from Cousins this season, though that is not a particularly bold statement when realizing KhaDarel Hodge was on the field for two plays in the first game and none in the second. Each member of this trio should get work tonight in the short game, and any one of them could find extra yards if they can split the seam of the secondary.

Tight End | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Kyle Pitts dropped from 96% of the snaps in Week 1 to just 74% on Monday. Still, he had four targets, which was one more than he saw in the season premier, despite a career high in routes run. This is less about his fellow tight ends and more about him barely being average as a blocker in his best games but also not a polished pass-catcher. His physical profile is off the charts, but if that raw ability does not convert to trustworthy production, perhaps it is not that various coaching staffs do not like him; it is that it is really hard to build game plans around him.

Former 49er tight ends Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley moved across the country this offseason. The former had 23 and 16 offensive snaps in the first two games, with both of his targets coming in the opener. The latter has seen the field for two plays each game and looks like the emergency option.

Stokastic is rolling out the NEW Single-Lineup Simulator as part of our NFL DFS packages this year! Explore our Single-Lineup Simulator guide to see how this powerful tool can help you hand-build or evaluate individual lineups, maximizing your ROI.

Kicker | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Younghoe Koo does not have the best accuracy from long range, converting on just 10 of his last 17 (58.8%) attempts from outside of 50 yards. However, he has been outstanding inside the 40 with a 97.8% success rate for his career, and from between 40 to 49 yards he has made good on 80% of his 50 opportunities.

Defense | Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Mahomes has been sacked four times already, though two games is still a small sample size. The three interceptions are more concerning given he has a 1.8% career rate, and this works out to 5.7%, albeit on just 53 throws. The Falcons have three sacks through the first two games, though last year they were in the middle of the flock with 2.5 per tilt. The team has one takeaway this season after getting only 16 all of last year.

Chiefs-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Falcons

1. Rashee Rice: Most well-rounded baseline, with upside on both sites.
2. Bijan Robinson: Not far behind his fellow second-year counterpart.
3. Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
4. Ray-Ray McCloud III: Ridiculous at $3,600 on DraftKings and a strong point-per-dollar play on FanDuel ($7,500).
5. Travis Kelce: Big games will always be lurking.
6. Drake London: Team will involve him in the “smedium” routes if the Kansas City secondary prevents downfield looks. That adjustment was not made in the opener but should be this week as appropriate.
7. Carson Steele: Remember the ridiculous Derrick Gore out of nowhere game on MNF against the Giants in 2021? Out of nowhere for 11 carries, 48 yards and a score. That is in play tonight with Steele.
8. Samaje Perine: Those dump-offs could really add up, depending on game flow.
9. Darnell Mooney: We are all sad for not going after him in Best Ball after Moore was shut down for the year.
10. Younghoe Koo: Put some respect on that pronunciation; he has been in the league long enough now: \YOUNG-way COO\.

Secondary Options

1. Harrison Butker: We need salary savings outside of the K.C. running backs, and he is in the dome.
2. Xavier Worthy: Once he shows dependability, we will be late to the party. Terrific tournament option.
3. Kyle Pitts: May just not be a fantasy stalwart, despite all the wish casting.
4. Tyler Allgeier: Multi-touchdown upside will be hard to access outside of something befalling Robinson.
5. Noah Gray: Could begin to climb in the rankings; still need to see the baseline level-up first, though.

Lottery Tickets

1. Kansas City D/ST: Meh, would be better at home but still in this same slot.
2. Atlanta D/ST: Hard to get fantasy points against Mahomes, but he has not been as sharp through two games.
3. Justin Watson: Worthy of having his own line but not as talented as Worthy.
4. Charlie Woerner and Jared Wiley: TE3s in the single-slate format.
5. Keaontay Ingram: Would be better at the DraftKings minimum. Could always be the Derrick Gore of the night.
6. Mecole Hardman: Likely featured kick and punt returner; gadget plays harder to come by with Worthy on the team.
7. Avery Williams, KhaDarel Hodge, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, Ross Dwelley, Casey Washington: Williams returns punts, Hodge is deep in the receiving rotation and one of JuJu or Skyy are likely to be inactive.

Stokastic’s NFL DFS Tools & Expert Advice

Looking for even more NFL DFS tips?

We’ve got you covered with expert NFL articles loaded with winning strategies! But even the pros need an edge—that’s where a Stokastic subscription comes in. Get access to the same tools our experts rely on, like the Sims Tool that helped our friend TheRealCoach111 win his SECOND MILLY MAKER in under two weeks!

His latest win was in MLB, but we’ve had NFL Milly Maker champs too — just ask Stokastic Sims co-developer Steve Buzzard, who took down last year’s Conference Championship Weekend.

And don’t forget to check out our Hall of Fame Avatar program to see what you can win by using the Sims to rise to the top of DraftKings or FanDuel NFL DFS contests!