Bengals-Giants DFS Picks: Week 6 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS

Sunday Night Football has a 48.5 projected total, with the high-flying Cincinnati offense favored by just over a field goal as the Bengals are on the road against the meandering 2-3 New York Giants. This total and close matchup add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down the Bengals-Giants matchup for Week 6 Sunday Night Football, analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Bengals-Giants DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football Week 6 NFL DFS

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Bengals-Giants DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6: Ja’Marr Chase

Let that soak in for a moment: The Brown family does not have the cashflow to cut the appropriate check. Tee Higgins is in a similar situation, which had fantasy gamers wondering just how hurt he was at the beginning of the year. Of course, the DFS community is jaded, having been burned by less than forthcoming injury reports regarding Higgins on multiple primetime slates. After missing the first two games, Higgins has played 90%, 64% and 72% of the offensive snaps. In the last two games, he has 10 and 24 targets, which is enough production in that pair of performances to rank second on the team, even without his six targets in Week 3.

This is pretty much a two-man show, with only Andrei Iosivas (seven, one and two) seeing any targets during the last trio of tilts, and his production has really trailed off. Even so, he is in play tonight for his presence on the field, averaging just over a 77% snap share in this timeframe. Rookie Jermain Burton has been on the field for three, four and one offensive plays over the last three games, with second-year man Charlie Jones in a similar boat at two, three and five snaps.

Cincinnati Bengals Positional Preview

Quarterback | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

A wrist issue impacted Joe Burrow during training camp and the first two games of the season, but the fifth-year signal-caller has rolled off some impressive numbers over the last three games. In this stretch, he has a pair of 300-yard performances and 10 touchdowns, leading the league with 12 aerial strikes. New York has not really been tested by a good quarterback, with Geno Smith (284 yards) the first to top 227 passing yards in Week 5 and the team ceding only seven passing touchdowns to the opposition.

Despite a 1-4 record, Cincinnati actually has been solid with 28.0 points per game, tied in fourth place with the New Orleans Saints. Including the heartbreaking 41-38 overtime loss to the visiting Baltimore Ravens, the Bengals have roared their way to 33 or more points in each of the last three matchups. Burrow is mobile in the pocket, but he tends to try to keep plays alive rather than looking to scramble. In his 57 games, he has averaged only 11.3 rushing yards per tilt, and he has not scored since Week 12 of the 2022 season. He is still in the mix for the multiplier slot, but it will be a tough path to get there as a slate-breaker.

Running Back | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

Chase Brown has been limited in practice this week with a quadricep issue, leaving both his availability and effectiveness murky. That is a shame since he tallied a troika of tuddies over the last two games, including one receiving score. Of course, that is helping to mask a major playing time disparity between himself (94 snaps) and Zack Moss (216 snaps).

Somehow the salary algorithms at FanDuel ($500) and DraftKings ($600) have decided Brown should have a higher salary than his counterpart. No other running back has seen the field on offense this season.

Word around the campfire is that Brown is expected to give it a go tonight, which makes for some interesting decisions.

Stokastic’s NFL stat projections have Brown for 11.72 carries and 52.92 yards, along with 2.11 targets, 1.86 receptions and 13.72 additional yards. He has a 44% probability of scoring a touchdown.

Moss checks in with 11.22 carries for 50.57 rushing yards, accompanied by 3.14 targets, 2.55 catches and 18.1 receiving yards. He also has a similar touchdown probability as Brown.

Tight End | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

The tight end position has accounted for nearly 25% of the targets this season, but the last two weeks have seen the opportunities trail off. Mike Gesicki leads the position with 21 targets, but nine came in Week 2 when Higgins was out, and he has just three looks in his last two appearances.

Erick All Jr. has asserted himself, with the fourth-round rookie seeing zero, four, four, four and two targets this season. Gesicki is seeing most of his work from the slot or split out, with All and Drew Sample playing in-line. If the trends hold tonight, this trio will each be on the field for around 40% to 50% of the offensive action.

Sample is mostly a blocker, with just three touchdowns in 66 career games across six seasons. Heck, one of his touchdowns came in Week 11 last year, courtesy of his former University of Washington teammate Jake Browning, who was pressed into duty. It is hard to see the former second-round selection as anything more than a longshot lottery ticket for fantasy purposes. He, of course, is a tremendous blocker, so at least he will be on the field a fair amount.

All looks like the next best option, when considering that both his salary and recent trends favor the rookie as compared to Gesicki, who is on his third team in three seasons.

Kicker | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

Evan McPherson has slid a little each year since his 2021 rookie campaign. The 25-year-old is a promising youngster who has converted from 56-plus yards in each of his four seasons while making 75% of his 32 career attempts from 50 or more yards, with a steady 83.7% success rate on 104 field goals. It is important to note that McPherson is outdoors for all home games and in the AFC North. Yes, tonight is another game under the stars, though when adjusting for his conditions, “Money Mac” has been well above average. Plus, we cannot forget his NFL record 14 made field goals during the 2021 postseason.

Defense | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

Six, also referred to as half a dozen: That is the total number of quarterback sacks recorded by Cincinnati through five games. Shockingly, that is not the worst effort — Atlanta holds that honor at five. The Bungles are tied with Carolina and Philadelphia, the latter of which has competed in one fewer foray. While the Giants have ceded a dozen sacks, that is actually a middle-of-the-pack result. The G-men have suffered four lost fumbles and three interceptions, and Cincy is right in that range, accruing five total takeaways.

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Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6: Daniel Jones

Of course, winning and fantasy production do not need to go hand in hand, which keeps Danny Dimes as a strong play on Sunday Night Football. The Bengals have allowed two passing touchdowns in each of the last four games, highlighted by Lamar Jackson’s four in overtime last Sunday. While Cincy held Patrick Mahomes to only 151 yards in Arrowhead Stadium in Week 2, rookie Jayden Daniels got them for a personal-best 254 aerial yards in Week 3 and in Week 4, and old man Andy Dalton managed to put up 220 yards against the team that drafted him.

Even with his thinned-out skill-position options, Jones should be able to bring the fantasy goodness tonight.

New York Giants Positional Preview

Running Back | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

Four different running backs have been able to rush for 90-plus yards against Cincinnati this season. The only game where that threshold was not surpassed was in Week 3 against the Washington Commanders, though Brian Robinson Jr. (16 carries, 31 yards, one touchdown), Austin Ekeler (3/35/1) and Daniels (12/39/1) each ran in a score.

Tracy suffered an ankle sprain in August, which limited his training camp repetitions. The fifth-round rookie out of Purdue was brough along slowly, participating in one-fourth of the offensive action over the first four games. Last week he was on the field for 45 plays, taking 18 totes for 129 yards and bringing in one of his two targets for a 1-yard touchdown reception. Second-year man Eric Gray was on the field for one-third of the snaps, getting four carries for 4 yards and turning four targets into three receptions for another 50 yards.

It goes without saying that Tracy is a core play tonight, but do not lose sight of Gray on DraftKings ($3,000) or FanDuel ($7,500). Gray had two solid seasons with Tennessee before transferring to Oklahoma for his final two years. In his sophomore season, Gray averaged 114 yards from scrimmage for the Volunteers, topping that his senior year with just over 133 per game as a Sooner. Last year Gray was behind superstar Saquon Barkley and journeyman Matt Breida, which kept him under wraps as a rookie.

While Tracy has the edge, we are looking at a one-game sample size and both backs have the same fifth-round draft capital. Tracy was getting the love as a late-round Best Ball option and, of course, last week as a cheap starting running back, but do not lose sight of the fact that he was in college for six seasons, four with Iowa and then two more in Purdue. The main difference was that Tracy spent the majority of his career as a wide receiver before becoming a full-time running back last year.

Tracy appears to be a little more talented than Gray and also the frontrunner in the timeshare, but he is not impervious to a rookie dud. Gray can be utilized on lineups with Tracy, plus he is an excellent direct leverage play in tournaments.

Wide Receiver | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

Even after missing last week, Nabers leads the Giants with 52 targets, seeing 45 of those in his three most recent games. In a wild twist, it is Wan’Dale Robinson who has been the other surprise, seeing at least eight targets in four of his five games, with 12 in Week 1 and 14 in Week 4 playing alongside Nabers. The breakout appears to be legitimate for the former Kentucky Wildcat, who was a second-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. Yes, it took injuries and attrition to finally get him a primary role, but who cares how he got here as long as he keeps it up.

It feels like Darius Slayton has been with New York forever and longer than his six actual seasons in the Big Apple. That is because he was lumped in with Sterling Shepard (now in Tampa) as the duo most likely to “break out” after the departure of Odell Beckham Jr. and subsequent addition of Golden Tate. Taking a trip down memory lane, here are the starting quarterbacks for the Giants since 2019, which was Shepard’s fourth year and Slayton’s first:

• 2019: Jones (12), Eli Manning (4)
• 2020: Jones (14), Colt McCoy (2)
• 2021: Jones (11), Mike Glennon (4), Jake Fromm (2)
• 2022: Jones (16), Davis Webb (1)
• 2023: Jones (6), Tommy DeVito (6), Tyrod Taylor (5)

The leading wideouts in this stretch were Slayton with 770 yards in 2023, 724 in 2022, 751 in 2020 and 740 in 2019. Shout out to Kenny Golladay with 521 in 2021, back when every receiver was injured and missed multiple games. Just to torment TMcB, that pitiful passel of pass-catchers included Kadarius Toney, Collin Johnson, David Sills, Pharoh Cooper, create-a-players C.J. Board and Alex Cooper, along with former University of Washington teammates John Ross and Dante Pettis, who played with Browning, creating a nice symmetry to bring us back to Sunday Night Football DFS.

Slayton led the team with 11 targets in Seattle, and Robinson was the only other wideout to get a look from Jones. Isaiah Hodgins saw his first offensive action, playing on one-third of the snaps, while Jalin Hyatt was on the field for a whopping 48 plays after stepping between the lines only 51 times in the first four games. Hyatt has three targets on the season, while Hodgins has nada, zip, zilch, zero. Thank goodness for DFS and sports wagering; otherwise there would be no reason to ever watch the Giants.

Tight End | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

Theo Johnson has had a couple moments this season, though he also has had some rookie gaffs. The hulking (6-foot-6, 264 pounds) tight end was a fourth-rounder out of Penn State, but he failed to crack 1,000 career yards, despite playing in 44 games across four seasons. He has seen four, zero, three, one and five targets this season, with Daniel Bellinger getting one chance in Week 1 and another in Week 3. Johnson is in play, projecting for 3.81 targets, 2.82 receptions and 28.37 yards. It is unlikely, but he could always fall into the end zone.

Kicker | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

Well, after saying some less than flattering things about Greg Joseph prior to his Week 4 Thursday Night Football effort, the venerable veteran decided to shove it in my mug with five made field goals for just the second time in his career — on five attempts, a mark he has reached three times in his 70 professional appearances. Field goals are a fickle mistress, as I have mentioned countless times in this article series over the better part of the last decade. Joseph is perfectly average, though that, of course, still leaves a slate-breaking performance in the realms of attainable outcomes, as evidenced within the last fortnight.

Defense | Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6

The Bengals have five turnovers on the season, which is in the top 75th percentile. New York has recovered four fumbles and made a trio of picks, so this is mostly a moot point. In a surprise twist, the Giants lead the league with 22 sacks. Burrow has a 5.98% sack rate, which is below his career average of 7.14 and a personal best, but still crummy. Look to the extraordinary G’ints in tourneys, though your mileage may vary.

Bengals-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6: Rankings

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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bengals-Giants

1. Ja’Marr Chase: Captain, my Captain!
2. Daniel Jones: Rushing potential gives him the edge over Burrow.
3. Tyrone Tracy Jr.: Eat the chalk, particularly in cash games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.).
4. Wan’Dale Robinson: Respect the streak.
5. Joe Burrow: Will need 250 yards and multiple touchdowns before returning a profit.
6. Zack Moss: How is he cheaper than Brown with that dramatic playing time edge?!
7. Darius Slayton: Best rapport with Danny Dimes.
8. Tee Higgins: Salary is lofty, though he rates out similarly to Chase from a fantasy point-per-dollar perspective.
9. Chase Brown: Questions abound; likely will need to get by on efficiency for a third consecutive week.
10. Theo Johnson: Will be on the field for close to 80% of the snaps; should at least avoid a zero.

Secondary Options

1. Evan McPherson: Love the name!
2. Greg Joseph: My personal nemesis!
3. New York D/ST: 22 sacks, and Burrow holds onto the ball way too long.
4. Eric Gray: Perfect countermove against Tracy; if you are building out five or more lineups, Gray without Tracy should have a 20% representation.
5. Andrei Iosivas: Three touchdowns in the first three weeks, only three targets in the last two. Your mileage may vary.

Lottery Tickets

1. Erick All Jr.: Is the trend our friend?
2. Cincinnati D/ST: Ranking would be the same if this were a home game.
3. Mike Gesicki: Sliding out of favor with his third franchise.
4. Jalin Hyatt: Meh.
5. David Bellinger and Drew Sample: Blocking tight ends who could luck into a 15-yard catch; anything after that would be gravy.
6. Isaiah Hodgins: Last player worthy of his own line.
7. Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Jermaine Burton, Dante Miller, Charlie Jones, Chris Manhertz and Trayveon Williams: Should at least be active and on the field. There is a chance viewers will hear their name called; collectively this motley crew projects for only 3.5 total touches. Jones returns punts for Cincy, and Williams gets kick returns, along with Brown. Smith-Marsette returns punts and probably moves ahead of Tracy for co-kick return duties alongside Gray.

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