Win%

Our predicted % of the time you win this bet based off of our projections, book lines, historical results, mean/median distributions and simulations.

EV

Expected value – also known as ROI. This is the weighted average of returns. For example 60% chance of winning a +100 bet has an EV of 20% (.6 * 1 + .4*-1).

sBet%

This is our refined version of Kelly Criterion optimal bet percentage that is designed to maximize your bankroll in the long term. Note this metric applies for sequential, not simultaneously placed bets. We are working on more specific guidance on how to handle sbet% for n number of bets, but generally speaking you should be betting less of the single sBet% for each additional simultaneous bet placed.

sEV

This metric measures the % your bankroll is expected to grow if you were to place this bet. We factor in how much of your bankroll you should invest (sBet%) as well as negative geometric drag to calculate this. 

NFL BET PRO

Navigating the multitude of MLB, NBA, and NFL player prop betting options can be challenging. That’s why we’ve refined the industry’s top DFS projections, empowering you to effortlessly scan the entire player prop market and discover positive EV plays. With our user-friendly tables, you can explore dozens of prop bets today and make informed decisions with confidence.

View MLB Bet Pro

Join Greg and Loughy over at Chalkboard for free plays and betting advice!

How to use this page 🛈

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Additional Information
Be sure to check if there are any key questionable players on a player’s team before placing a bet. Our current projections are assuming questionable players are IN until they get ruled out. For example, if the tool is saying that Jaylen Brown under points is a good bet, but Tatum is questionable then avoid taking the bet unless you are confident Tatum will play.

Bets will become available at 11 CST.

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Glossary

• • 5% 10% 15% 20% >25%
  • At least 5% to 25% of the team’s stat production is exposed to questionable players.

• Example 1: If Paul George is questionable we would see Kawhi’s points props as light red because Paul George produces 20-25% of the teams total points.
• Example 2: If Alex Caruso was questionable Vucevic would show as light yellow because Alex Caruso only represents 5% of the teams total rebounds.
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• Example 3: If only Lillard on his team is questionable, he will be outlined orange. The other players on his team will be highlighted various colors based upon Lillard’s expected production in each category.

• Win%: Our predicted % of the time you win this bet based off of our projections, book lines, historical results, mean/median distributions and simulations.
• EV%: Expected value – also known as ROI. This is the weighted average of returns. For example 60% chance of winning a +100 bet has an EV of 20% (.6 * 1 + .4*-1).
• sBet%: This is our refined version of Kelly Criterion optimal bet percentage that is designed to maximize your bankroll in the long term. Note this metric applies for sequential, not simultaneously placed bets.
  We are working on more specific guidance on how to handle sbet% for n number of bets, but generally speaking you should be betting less of the single sBet% for each additional simultaneous bet placed.
• sEV: This metric measures the % your bankroll is expected to grow if you were to place this bet. We factor in how much of your bankroll you should invest (sBet%) as well as negative geometric drag to calculate this.

What is the difference between EV and sEV?

The key difference is that EV measures the growth of a single bet, whereas sEV measures the ROI in terms of the growth of your entire bankroll

Why use sEV?

Example #1

Would you rather place a bet where you have a 100% chance to win and an EV of 20% or a bet with a 1% chance to win and the same EV of 20%?  Clearly the first option is better because you can safely invest every last penny of your net worth and you would be able to fully realize that 20% EV whereas with the 1% win bet you could only invest some amount < 100% of your bankroll.

Example #2

Lets begin with a few assumptions:

• – You have a 0 EV bet where you have a 50% chance of doubling up and 50% chance of losing your bet.
• – You are betting 10% of your bankroll on this bet.
• – Now we can say that the two possible outcomes, each with a 50% chance of occurring, are that you end up with 110% of your bankroll or 90% of your bankroll.

If you were win to this bet once and lose once you would end up with 110%*90% = 99% of your bankroll for a net loss of 1%! The general way to calculate bet returns this way is winReturn^(win%)*lossReturn^(loss%). This is the essence of the concept of negative geometric drag also known as volatility tax in the finance world which we’ve factored into our sEV calculation.

The Stokastic Edge?

With access to the stat projections that drive our winning DFS player point projection models, you can apply advanced sports analytics to player prop bets and get an edge on the sportsbooks!

The Expert Team

Our DFS projections are managed by Stokastic’s team of experts, including Alex Baker, Rich Green, Shawn Zhan, and Steve Buzzard, and updated throughout the day as more information becomes available up until the last game tips.

Why Use Stokastic for Player Prop Betting?

We know it’s hard to stay on top of all the prop betting options. That’s why we’ve recalibrated the industry’s best DFS projections to help scan the entire player prop market and find positive EV plays.

Why Use Expected Value (EV)?

The measure of what a bettor can anticipate to win or lose each wager made on the same odds repeatedly is called expected value (EV) in the betting world. A positive expected value (+EV) suggests a future profit, whereas a negative value (-EV) suggests a future loss. Every wager should be made with the intention of finding betting value.

F.A.Q.

What Are Player Props?

Player props are fun way to wager on an MLB, NBA and NFL games without necessarily wagering on the final result. Player Props are becoming more and more popular since they allow you to take advantage of a players’ advantageous position to hit over or under lines on numbers like touchdowns thrown, strikeouts, points, assists, rebounds, or a combination of those. We at Stokastic favor these over game lines bets, knowing the market is more inefficient and favorable to bet on. 

What are the Best Bets?

Our best bet data showcases the props with the greatest EV across all sportsbooks. We make it very simple and quick to lock in excellent value player prop bets if you’re planning to do some line shopping today.

When are the bets ready for me to play and bet confidently on?

Moving forward we won’t be turning on the Bet Pro tool each morning until 11 AM Central Time (we may make exceptions during special circumstances with early games like holidays or playoffs). This is to ensure that we have the appropriate amount of time to make sure that all of our projections are refined and that the bet predictions up on the tool are always up to our high standards of quality.

Which is the most important metric to use when betting?

Our sEV metric measures the % your bankroll is expected to grow if you were to place this bet. We factor in how much of your bankroll you should invest (sBet%) as well as negative geometric drag to calculate this. This is the default sort because at the end of the day, as a bettor you are trying to maximize the growth of your bankroll and this captures that.

What’s the recommended bet size?

sBet% is our refined version of Kelly Criterion optimal bet percentage that is designed to maximize your bankroll in the long term. For example, if you had a 20% ROI bet, betting 100% of your bankroll would cause you to inevitably go broke, but betting 1% might not be maximizing your long term growth. We do the math to help you determine the correct % of your bankroll to bet.

What’s included in the Bet Pro package?

• Best Player Prop Bets Tool with highest Expected Value (EV) for tonight for MLB, NBA and NFL player props
• Advanced NBA stats for players in today’s games
• PrizePicks, NHA and Underdog Fantasy Projections with Expected Win% for Pick’Em options