The TOUR hits Charlotte, North Carolina for a star studded Wells Fargo Championship. It’s why we are here to continue our FRL series by looking at our Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader picks, bets and more!
The biggest names in golf will convene at Quail Hollow, just not the best name. Scottie Scheffler awaits the birth of his first child, so he’s giving someone else a chance to win this week. That opens some longer value for outright winners more than it does for any first round leader (FRL), but we will still take the break. Quail Hollow is a longer course rewarding distance off the tee while challenging golfers to hit approach shots with longer irons. Having history here or at a comp course will be key in identifying best candidates to lead after one round.
Not much changes in the strategy here as we apply the same approach to picking a winner as we do with the first round. There are certain profiles that will stand out that fit Quail Hollow, beyond Rory McIlroy’s success here or two time champion Max Homa. We still see the need to score on difficult holes/courses being another important metric, as will be putting. This is one of the longer venues we will see on TOUR and a smaller field despite the biggest names playing the week.
Long and accurate iron play should help create an edge over the field, as will a sense of familiarity at Quail Hollow. We’ve seen some golfers overcome the lack of history by playing well at similar courses.
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Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Picks
The Keys To The Kingdom
This course is long. It’s demanding in approach shots and a firm bounce on the green. Strokes gained off ball striking and distance off the tee will help anyone jump out to an early lead. While an earlier tee time will certainly play a positive role in this field, getting out to an early jump won’t be limited to just the start of the day. With a limited field, the early tee times are in the 11aE time, so there should be little issue with daylight. Get off the tee, smash a longer iron on the green, putt for birdie or par. That’s the proven recipe here at Quail Hollow, let’s see who fits best.
The one area of concern for most will be landing on the firm and fast Bermuda greens. While distance is so important off the tee, what someone does on the green will be another area to target. This is where course history does play into our strategy, as knowing where to hit or attack these greens is half the battle. It can be a great equalizer as golfers will have to balance a longer iron approach shot with a tight yet firm landing spot to attack these greens. Once there, they move fast. We want guys who can handle a little distance and make a few putts.
Wells Fargo Championship First-Round Leader Picks
Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Picks: Cam Young (+3500 at BetMGM)
Cam Young has become a crowd favorite to win this week, rightfully so as he punishes the golf ball. Young is still looking for PGA TOUR win #1 and this seems like a fantastic fit. Pound the ball, get over on the field with massive second shots, solidify the lead with a few birdie putts. The field won’t phase him nor will the length at Quail Hollow. This should be a profitable week overall for Young backers, but we like him to jump out early on Thursday.
As one of the longest hitters on TOUR, Young has the built in advantage needed at the Wells Fargo. He’s crushing the ball with SG:OTT and one of the better ball strikers – combining accuracy with his distance. We get a favorable tee time for Young, in the 1144aE range, still in the earlier side of the groupings. Overall, he’s an amazing fit for this course and should thrive in the super competitive environment even if we are just below a Major level feel.
The WD from Ludvig Aberg actually helps a long hitter like Young. We wish Aberg the best with his knee, but this is one less ball smasher in the field to contend with Young.
Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Picks: Cam Davis (+6600 at BetMGM)
Here’s your long shot FRL play, another Cam and another bomber. The length Davis provides off the tee is on another level, few can match even in this elevated field. Accuracy takes a somewhat back seat here which further helps Davis break out in the first round. We saw him handle Augusta, part of a nice T20 stretch he’s currently enjoying. As far as fit for Quail Hollow and specific skill set, Davis is a runaway candidate to jump out early on Thursday.
We get a decent break on a FRL score that is certainly reflective of the elevated field this week. He’s at his best when gaining on the green, as evident with some solid finishes over the past two months. That’s a big reason why his value stands out this week. If Davis can string together some scoring chances on the green, gaining strokes there, he’s live to lead after one – and win outright.
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