This Week 6 49ers-Seahakws NFC West battle for Thursday Night Football is a shockingly high-stakes matchup this early in the season — and the contests on DraftKings and FanDuel are equally high stakes. So let’s not waste any time; we are heading to the NFL DFS Sims Tool to identify the best Week 6 TNF DFS Showdown picks based on ROI, using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections and NFL DFS ownership projections as our guide. Let’s dig in.
Week 6 TNF DFS Picks Based on ROI: 49ers-Seahawks NFL DFS
Right off the bat, we are giving you a FREE look at a high-ROI lineup from Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims for DraftKings and FanDuel. And then we’re running it through our Single-Lineup Simulator to show you how to evaluate your individual lineups with the Sims. Then we’ll go through the top 300 lineups on the whole and break down player exposures.
If you like what you see for each lineup, then join us by signing up for a Lite, Core or Max NFL package and start evaluating your lineup ROI!
Top Week 6 DraftKings TNF NFL DFS Picks for 49ers-Seahawks
What the Sims love about this lineup is, above all, the use of Matthew Wright in the Flex and Geno Smith at Captain. Wright and Smith are the only two Captain plays simulating with positive ROI, but Smith at Captain offers more leverage at 10.2% and, obviously, much higher upside. As such, he appears in the top slot in 25% of the time in top-300 lineups, whereas Wright only appears 4.3%.
As a Flex, however, Wright is in a whopping 83.3% of top-300 lineups in this Sims run, and he provides over 70% leverage against the field. He is the lockiest lock among Flex plays as the reserve for the 49ers’ regular kicker Jake Moody — maybe the field is glossing over because no one has heard of him? To be determined.
No. 2 for Captain exposure is, unsurprisingly, Jordan Mason at 18.3%. However, Mason is projected for fewer fantasy points, is simulating with negative ROI and offers a bit less leverage than Smith. Still, you can absolutely build high-ROI lineups with Mason at Captain; he just won’t look quite as good individually in those lineups.
The other leading Flex options — as in those appearing at Flex in 30% or more of top-300 lineups — are Brock Purdy, Mason, Smith and Kenneth Walker. Smith specifically is in over 54% as a Flex, so all together that means he shows up in 80% of the 300 lineups with the best returns on investment. If you’re playing him, your best returns have him at Captain, but still roster Smith even if you go with Mason or Purdy in the top slot.
As a result, the top-simulating receiver Flexes are Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett all make the 23% cut in terms of top-300 appearances, while George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are even with Lockett at 23%. All of those guys are negatively leveraged, however.
Top Week 6 FanDuel TNF NFL DFS Picks for 49ers-Seahawks
Now what you’ll notice here is that this FanDuel lineup has both a kicker and a defense in AnyFlex slots. That isn’t a crazy strategy by any means, especially given that this particular lineup so strongly favors the 49ers (5-1 with Mason at MVP).
Interestingly enough, Mason at Captain is actually the third-most often used play among top-300 FanDuel lineups. Smith against leads the pack at 38%, followed by Purdy at 24.7% and Mason 16.0%. Smith also again gives the most leverage at 14.8% and is, along with Wright, the only positive-ROI Captain.
Purdy in the AnyFlex is the most rostered player on the slate (47.2%), but given he appears in nearly 50% of top-300 lineups, he is positively leveraged and one of the better AnyFlex plays for tonight. Also, on FanDuel his receivers are simulating a bit better; Metcalf is the No. 1 AnyFlex wide receiver (29.0% exposure), but Brandon Aiyuk and Kittle are both in the 25% range, about in line with their ownership.
All told, most top-300 lineups have Smith and Purdy somewhere — combined MVP and AnyFlex exposure is well over 70% for both. And as the high-ROI lineup above shows, you can go heavy on one team or the other, as long as one of the quarterbacks is added as at least a one-off.
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