Navigating the NFL DFS running back landscape in Week 16 is no easy task, but the slate offers a loaded top tier, a thin mid-range and a single standout option at value. Let’s break down the top Week 16 NFL DFS running backs at every salary level, using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections and NFL DFS ownership projections to sort through the numerous good picks.
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Week 16 NFL DFS Running Backs: High- and Mid-Range NFL DFS Picks
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Top-Tier Running Backs
The high-priced range is stacked with volume monsters, emerging workhorses and dynamic playmakers, making this one of the most competitive spots on the slate.
Bijan Robinson ($8,100)
Robinson is the safest bet among the elite options. You can pencil him in for 20-plus carries and target volume, with the added bonus of touchdown equity. In a great matchup, Robinson is poised for another big day.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500)
With David Montgomery out, Gibbs steps into a massive role against the Bears. Last week, Gibbs played 75% of snaps — a season high — and there’s reason to believe his volume could be high. While Craig Reynolds may pick up a handful of snaps, Gibbs is expected to dominate the backfield and could benefit from a cold-weather game where Jared Goff struggles. If Gibbs gets anything close to the 31-touch workload he handled in similar circumstances last season, he’s a smash play.
Kyren Williams ($7,200)
Williams is coming off a monster 29-carry performance and has back-to-back games solidifying his role as a true workhorse. Don’t let noise about Blake Corum shake your confidence here — Williams owns this backfield and is a reliable option for volume and touchdowns.
Saquon Barkley ($8,300)
Barkley is one of the best genius (/s) plays in the top tier. He faces a significantly better matchup than last week and could go overlooked in this crowded range. Barkley should see his typical workload of carries and targets, making him an excellent tournament pivot.
Chase Brown ($7,700)
Brown’s role is undeniable, but he’s hitting the Rachaad White problem from last year: The production is solid, but the price keeps climbing. He played a ridiculous 93% of snaps last week, yet his salary now erodes a lot of the value he once offered. Brown is viable but is riskier at this price point.
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Mid-Range Running Backs
The mid-range is thin this week, but there are a couple of intriguing plays worth considering.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,800)
Hubbard is the clear standout in the mid-tier. He’s coming off games with 97% and 95% snap shares, handling a massive workload despite the Panthers’ struggles. One bad game doesn’t erase his role — he’ll be incredibly busy again this week.
Jonathan Taylor ($6,900)
Taylor makes for an excellent mid-range option in a sneaky good spot. Facing a Tennessee defense that’s beginning to crumble — allowing 4.5 yards per carry over the last three weeks — Taylor is set up for success. He should see a full workload, and narrative players can point to his motivation after a costly fumble last game where he dropped the ball as he was crossing the goal line. Tennessee’s front is breaking down, and Taylor could wear them down further.
Value Running Back
D’Andre Swift ($5,600)
Swift is the clear value option against a Detroit defensive line that continues to take hits. Despite playing from behind most of Monday Night Football, Swift handled 19 carries and played 70% of snaps. He is the Bears’ primary back, and at just $5,600, Swift offers solid volume and touchdown upside. If no further injuries impact him, Swift is the best play in this range by far.
