The Falcons are officially the value stack du jour, and it’s all because they are starting a new era at quarterback. We’re diving into them and Michael Penix Jr. to build a Week 16 DraftKings NFL DFS lineup, and we’ll use our Single-Lineup Simulator to evaluate how often it’s going to cash, place top 10 and/or win on Week 16’s main slate, powered by Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections and NFL DFS ownership projections.
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Week 16 DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup: Enter Michael Penix Jr.
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Quarterbacks: A Deep Dive
This week, Michael Penix Jr. stands out as an intriguing option. Priced at $4,500, Penix is projected to start and has a favorable matchup with the Giants. While his NFL experience is limited to just a handful of snaps and 38 passing yards, his low salary and upside make him an appealing pick for DFS lineups. He’s currently projected for 9% ownership, striking a balance between value and popularity.
While Penix is an exciting choice, other quarterbacks are worth considering as well. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is an ultra-cheap option at under $5,000, but his lack of high-end results and consistency makes him less appealing. Personally, I’d rather pivot to Mac Jones at $5,200. Despite his shortcomings, Jones offers a safer floor and a strong stacking option in Brian Thomas Jr. However, Penix’s affordability and upside in an easy matchup make him my preferred choice to anchor this week’s DraftKings lineup.
Stacking Strategy: Penix with Drake London
Stacking Penix with Drake London is a straightforward yet powerful strategy. London has proven himself as a reliable target, and his salary fits well within a balanced lineup. Adding London to your lineup complements Penix’s upside as well. A skinny stack like this allows flexibility for other positions without overcommitting to a single team, but throwing Kyle Pitts in as well is a solid Atlanta double-stack.
Running Backs: Jahmyr Gibbs and More
Jahmyr Gibbs is a must-have this week. With David Montgomery out, Gibbs has proven he can handle a heavy workload. He had a staggering 31 touches in one game with Montgomery out last year. This week, Gibbs will be heavily involved again, especially with the Lions’ defensive struggles putting their backs against the wall. At $7,500, he’s a high-upside play in a pivotal matchup against Chicago.
Other running backs to consider include:
- Zach Charbonnet (if Kenneth Walker is ruled out): Charbonnet is a strong value play in this scenario.
- Jonathan Taylor: Priced at $6,900, he’s been heavily featured in the Sims and offers significant upside.
- Chuba Hubbard: Despite a lackluster performance last week, Hubbard remains a viable option.
- Jerome Ford: He’s expected to lead the Cleveland backfield and comes in at low ownership, making him an excellent tournament play.
Wide Receivers: Malik Nabers
At $6,100, Malik Nabers priced down despite consistent volume. He has seen at least seven targets in every game this season and 14 targets just last week. Even with subpar quarterback play from the Giants, Nabers’ target share makes him a reliable option, and it’s also a solid run-back for the Falcons stack.
Defense: Browns Extremely Cheap
For defense, the Cleveland Browns at $2,300 offer solid value. Facing a Bengals team likely to air it out, the Browns have an opportunity to capitalize on turnovers and sacks. This salary-saving pick provides room to upgrade other positions.
The Final Build
Here’s how a potential Week 16 DraftKings NFL lineup could look according to our Single-Lineup Simulator:
- QB: Michael Penix Jr. ($4,500)
- RB: Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500)
- RB: Zach Charbonnet ($6,000)
- WR: Drake London ($6,400)
- WR: Malik Nabers ($6,100)
- WR: Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,300)
- TE: Kyle Pitts ($4,000)
- Flex: Jonathan Taylor ($6,900)
- DST: Browns ($2,300)
