Thanksgiving Day is here, and with it comes a thrilling NFL DFS slate filled with intriguing matchups. To navigate the wealth of potential plays, we’ve leaned on Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims, which generated 10,000 lineups to simulate tonight’s contest. By comparing Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections compared to our NFL DFS projections, we have insights into lineup construction, player exposures and leverage opportunities. Let’s break down the key Thanksgiving takeaways for quarterbacks, stacks, skill positions and defenses to help you craft winning lineups.
Thanksgiving NFL DFS Ownership, Projections & Stacks: Sims Picks
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Optimal Stacks & Lineup Construction
When it comes to stacking, the Sims reveal that QB +3 with no runback and QB +3 with one runback are the highest-EV approaches, showing up frequently in the top 300 ROI lineups. Meanwhile, no stacks and full game stacks are heavily underutilized by the field, offering potential differentiation in large tournaments.
Top-300 ROI Stacking Trends
- QB +2 | 1 OPP: 22.33%
- QB +3 | 1 OPP: 19.33%
- QB +3: 18.33%
- QB +2: 12.67%
- QB +2 | 2 OPP: 10.00%
Field Stacking Trends
- QB +2 | 1 OPP: 24.07%
- QB +3 | 1 OPP: 13.09%
- QB +1 | 1 OPP: 11.80%
- QB +2 | 2 OPP: 10.67%
- QB +3: 7.00%
The field significantly undervalues QB +3 stacks, making them a great option for those chasing upside on this small slate.
Quarterbacks
Quarterback exposures in the top 300 ROI heavily favor Caleb Williams, who leads the way with 25.7% exposure. Jared Goff and Cooper Rush also feature prominently as part of high-value stacks.
- Caleb Williams +3: 25.7%
- Jared Goff +3: 11%
- Cooper Rush +3: 9.3%
- Caleb Williams +2: 8%
- Tua Tagovailoa +3: 7%
Williams is clearly the standout option with stacking flexibility that allows for a range of unique builds.
Running Backs
Running back exposures in the top 300 ROI are dominated by value plays, particularly Rico Dowdle, who offers significant salary savings and touchdown equity. Dowdle is featured 32% more often than the field in the Sims.
Top RBs in Top-300 ROI
- Rico Dowdle: +32% leverage
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 40%
- Josh Jacobs: 42%
- Devon Achane: 41%
Negative Leverage RBs
- David Montgomery: -14.8%
- D’Andre Swift: -11.4%
- Tyrone Tracy: -9.7%
Dowdle is the must-have salary-relief play, while Gibbs and Jacobs remain solid options despite their higher ownership.
Wide Receivers
Wide receiver ownership is more evenly distributed, but the top 300 ROI lineups show heavy exposure to elite options like Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb. D.J. Moore stands out as the most positively leveraged WR at +19%.
Top WR Exposures
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 55% (+12%)
- CeeDee Lamb: 54% (+10%)
- D.J. Moore: 49% (+19%)
- Tyreek Hill: 39% (+10.5%)
- Keenan Allen: 33% (+8%)
Meanwhile, Malik Nabers and Christian Watson are heavily over-owned, with the Sims showing -18% and -11% leverage, respectively.
Tight Ends
The Sims prioritize efficiency at the tight end position, with exposure limited to just six players. Cole Kmet and Sam LaPorta lead the way as top plays, but here are the full results:
Defenses
Defensive exposures are fairly balanced across the six teams playing. However, the Cowboys DST stands out as the top defense in the Sims, with 36% exposure and a +14% leverage score. Meanwhile, the Bears DST has a notable -11% leverage, making them an overvalued option by the field.
Most Duped Lineups
On small slates like Thanksgiving, duplicate lineups can be a major challenge. The highest-projected lineup from this Sims run is highly likely to be duplicated:
Projected Fantasy Points: 135.94
Ownership Sum: 308%
Lineup
- QB: Caleb Williams
- RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Rico Dowdle
- WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, D.J. Moore
- TE: Sam LaPorta
- Flex: Cole Kmet
- DST: Cowboys
Avoiding highly duped lineups like this will be key to maximizing ROI in large-field tournaments.
Top Values Under 10% NFL DFS Ownership
- Cooper Rush: 9.9%
- Tommy DeVito: 6.85%
- Wan’Dale Robinson: 7.46%
- Darius Slayton: 1.5%
These low-owned plays offer the potential to differentiate lineups and leverage underutilized value.
