Week 12’s Monday Night Football features a star-studded AFC showdown between the Ravens and Chargers. To navigate the wealth of potential plays, we’ve leaned on Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims, which generated 10,000 lineups to simulate tonight’s contest. By comparing Stokastic’s MNF NFL DFS ownership projections compared to our NFL DFS projections we can pinpoint top-ROI lineups and identify key differences from the field. Let’s dive into the best Showdown NFL DFS picks and stacks for this Ravens-Chargers matchup to help you craft winning lineups.
MNF DFS Ownership, Projections & Stacks: Sims Showdown Picks
Stokastic offers the crucial tools and insights you need to crush NFL DFS Showdown slates. We’re not just revisiting the basics — NFL projections, Sims, Lineup Generator — but we’re also rolling out TWO exciting new NFL tools this season!
And with four tailored tiers of NFL packages, there’s something for everyone, whether you’re just starting out or a seasoned pro.
Now let’s get into what the Sims show us about tonight’s MNF DFS slate in terms of Chargers and/or Ravens stacks, ownership, and leverage opportunities.
Field vs. Top ROI Lineups
The most common stacks by the field lean toward balanced builds like BAL 3 | LAC 3 (31.35%) and BAL 4 | LAC 2 (24.37%). However, Stokastic’s Top-300 ROI lineups show slightly increased exposure to more contrarian stack types:
- BAL 5 | LAC 1: 14.05% (vs. 11.92% field)
- BAL 1 | LAC 5: 12.04% (vs. 9.44% field)
These “outlier” stacks are often underestimated in terms of their probability of hitting. Leveraging these builds could provide an edge in large-field GPPs.
Lamar Jackson Dominates the Captain Spot
- Top-300 ROI exposure: 31.7%
- Field ownership: 25%
- Leverage: +5.9%
Jackson is the highest-leveraged and safest Captain, offering dual-threat upside in a favorable matchup. If you’re playing cash or smaller contests, locking him in as Captain might be optimal.
Top-Leveraged Captains
- Lamar Jackson: +5.9%
- Justin Herbert: +4.1%
- Will Dissly: +4.1%
Dissly, at just 9.3% Captain exposure in the Top-300, could be a sneaky option. He’s inexpensive and benefits from touchdown equity in a high-passing game script.
Underperforming Captains
- Zay Flowers: -6.5%
- Derrick Henry: -4.7%
- Isaiah Likely: -2.1%
These players are being over-rostered in the captain spot relative to their optimal rates. Pivoting away could be a profitable move.
High Ownership Flex Options
The usual suspects dominate the Flex ownership:
- Justin Herbert: 62.3%
- Lamar Jackson: 51%
- Justin Tucker: 38.3%
- Derrick Henry: 36%
Given their ceilings, it’s hard to fade Herbert and Jackson. However, kickers and cheap skill players are worth a closer look.
Most Leveraged FLEX Plays
- Gus Edwards: +17.8% leverage
- Justin Tucker: +13.8% leverage
- Cameron Dicker: +10.2% leverage
Gus Edwards ($2,800) is a boom/bust option with significant touchdown equity. In a game where the Ravens are slight favorites, Edwards is a prime candidate for a two-touchdown outing.
Underperforming FLEX Options
Players to consider fading due to negative leverage:
- Justice Hill: -8.9%
- Quentin Johnston: -8.8%
- Chargers DST: -8.1%
Hill and Johnston are priced in awkward ranges and have lower ceilings compared to similarly priced players like Edwards.
Optimal DraftKings Lineup
Projected Fantasy Points: 95.6
Ownership Sum: 170.3%
Sim ROI: +129.4%
Captain
- Lamar Jackson
Flex
- Gus Edwards
- Justin Herbert
- Justin Tucker
- Ladd McConkey
- Will Dissly
This lineup captures high-leverage plays (Jackson and Edwards), two kickers with high floors, and mid-range salary fillers like McConkey and Dissly who can provide contrarian upside.
TL;DR — Key Takeaways for Monday Night Football
- Stacking Strategy: Look for edges with BAL 5 | LAC 1 and BAL 1 | LAC 5 stacks.
- Captain Spot: Jackson is the best play, but Dissly offers intriguing leverage as a contrarian pick.
- Flex Leverage: Prioritize Edwards, kickers and under-the-radar contributors over chalky but underperforming options like Hill and Johnston.
