With the conclusion of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, we’ve made it through the early season gauntlet of course rotation events and are back to normal, tournament golf. Normal is relative, however, as the Waste Management Phoenix Open is a quite the unique stop on the PGA Tour schedule. Obviously, here we will be showcasing our Waste Management Phoenix Open DFS picks in our ongoing PGA DFS picks series.
The “People’s Open” as many have coined it over the years, has become famous, not for the golf, but for the shenanigans surrounding it. However, this course has been a mainstay on the TOUR for years, so we have plenty of data to draw from in terms of course history and player fit.
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You can snag any Stokastic PGA DFS product, using the code WMPO, for 50% off your initial payment.
This is — again — an offer that will expire quicker than milk left out in the warm summer sun.
Back to our Waste Management Phoenix Open DFS picks!
Waste Management Phoenix Open DFS Picks
Course & Tournament Preview
TPC Scottsdale Stadium course plays host this week. A par 71 measuring 7,261 yards, it typically yields a tournament winning score in the high teens to low 20’s under par range. Elite ball strikers line the history books in terms of previous winners here, with Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, and Hideki Matsuyama all winning twice here within the last 10 years. Length off the tee certainly helps, but is not a necessity in order to compete. As always, strokes gained on approach will play a large factor this week. I’ll be targeting elite ball strikers who have had some success at TPC Scottsdale in the past for my ideal player profile this week.
Using the Stokastic PGA Sims Tool, I’ve highlighted the top plays for this week below. Our hole-by-hole simulations evaluate each golfer’s potential outcome, combined with PGA DFS projections. By running simulations of lineups tens of thousands of times, we can pinpoint the top plays.
Naturally, the players who appear most frequently in the highest-ROI lineups are the ones I focus on for my portfolio. The Sims Tool is crucial to my weekly DFS strategy, and I highly recommend it for anyone looking to advance their DFS game.
Please note, I intentionally left out Scottie Scheffler from the list of core plays below. He is the best play on the slate, and will be every single time he tees it up this year. You don’t need me to tell you that. How you handle him is a strategic decision that only you can make based on your bankroll, the contests you’re playing, and how you want to attack the unique game theory inflection point that only Scottie can provide. Alright, let’s get to the plays.
2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open DFS Picks & Core Plays
Hideki Matsuyama – $10,200
Matsuyama has dominated TPC Scottsdale throughout his storied career. In nine career starts, he has two wins, four top 4 finishes, six top 16 finishes, and has only finished outside the top 30 once. He simply loves playing here. As one of the game’s best ball strikers, it’s not a surprise he has put up some eye-popping finishes.
He’s coming into this week in good form as well, with two wins over his last seven starts, including his win in the Sentry Tournament of Champions to kick off the season just a few weeks ago. Over the last 24 rounds he ranks 5th in this field in strokes gained on approach. He has been a bit inaccurate off the tee, but this course won’t punish wayward drives nearly as much as the average tour course. I love how he sets up this week.
Sungjae Im – $9,800
After a somewhat disappointing 33rd place finish last week at Pebble Beach, I’m going back to the well on Sungjae again this week. Over his last six starts, Sungjae has three top 10 finishes, including a 4th at the Farmers just two weeks ago. In three career starts at the WMPO, he has finishes of 7th, 34th, and 17th.
Recent form and course history boxes are checked here, and we know Sungjae is historically a fantastic approach player. I’m willing to overlook the mis step last week and bet on him righting the ship at a course that sets up well for his game.
Billy Horschel – $7,600
With a near dead last finish at the Sentry TOC and a missed cut at Sony, Horschel struggle out of the gates to start 2025. However, he appeared to find some form at the American Express with a 21st place finish, and carried that momentum into last week with a strong 9th place finish in a stacked field at Pebble Beach where he gained over 5 shots on the field in approach play.
Horschel is another player who is quite familiar with the Waste Management. Over 9 career starts in this events, he’s made the cut eight times and has five finishes inside the top 30. His recent surge in ball striking gives me confidence he can make enough birdies to stay in contention this week. His mid $7k price point on DK gives him tremendous value potential as one of the stronger point per dollar players available on the slate.
Want to elevate your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to discover how to use simulations to help refine your DFS picks!
GPP Flier
Beau Hossler – $7,800
It appears nobody wants to play Beau this week. I would imagine a large portion of the negative sentiment surrounding him has to be near dead last finish at Pebble Beach last week. However, a big reason for his poor finish was the third round 78 he shot in horrible weather conditions. He followed that up with a 68 in the final round, which was tied for the fourth best round on the course. So he’s not totally broken.
Prior to Pebble, Hossler was playing great golf to start 2025 with a 12th place finish at the American Express and a 15th place finish at Farmers in back to back weeks. He also had some impressive starts through the swing season, with a 2nd place finish at Sanderson Farms in Octover, and two top 23 finishes at Shriners and the World Wide Technology Championship. As a longer hitter, and a great putter, he certainly has the upside to compete at TPC Scottsdale.
With ownership projections hovering around the 5% mark, I believe he is a strong GPP flier candidate to help differentiate your lineups in large field GPP’s this week.
These are the main players who will be featured in my Waste Management Phoenix Open lineups. I’ll be relying on these golfers while building my lineups and using the PGA Sims Tool. Additionally, don’t forget to take advantage of the odds boosts offered by sportsbooks.
