If you’re looking to play NBA DFS, the first place you need to start is with projections. NBA DFS projections provide the foundation for lineup construction, helping players identify top performers, value plays and optimal roster builds based on statistical expectations. Understanding how to navigate and utilize these projections effectively is crucial to long-term DFS success.
This tutorial will guide you through Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, available for DraftKings, FanDuel and other DFS platforms. We’ll cover how to filter and interpret the data, break down key metrics and explain how to leverage projections to build optimal lineups.
Using NBA DFS Projections in Your Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy
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Navigating NBA DFS Projections
Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections contain several important tabs: Projections for DraftKings, FanDuel and a projected stats page that provides deeper insights into individual player metrics. Let’s break down each key section of the projections.
Player Names and Fantasy Point Projections
The first column in the projection table lists player names. Next to it, you’ll find each player’s projected fantasy points, which indicate the expected DFS output based on statistical models. You can filter this column to isolate top performers. For example, typing “40” in the filter box will show only players projected for 40+ fantasy points. If you want to exclude high-end players and focus on mid-tier options, you can enter “40” in the exclusion filter, removing all players above that threshold.
Position Filtering
Sorting by position allows for quick access to eligible players for each roster spot. To view only point guards, simply type “PG” in the filter box. The same applies for centers (“C”), forwards (“SF,” “PF”), or multi-position players. This helps when constructing lineups around positional scarcity or targeting specific builds based on slate dynamics.
Team and Opponent Matchups
Filtering by team or opponent can be useful for game stacking or targeting favorable matchups. Selecting a team like the Lakers will display only Lakers players, helping DFS players focus on specific teams with high implied point totals or exploitable matchups.
Key Metrics in NBA DFS Projections
Minutes Projections
One of the most important columns in NBA DFS projections is minutes played. More minutes lead to more opportunities for fantasy production. Projections estimate a player’s expected playing time based on recent performances, coaching tendencies and game script. Since NBA DFS is highly volume-driven, minutes are a major factor in identifying strong plays.
Salary and Value Metrics
Salary is listed directly from the DFS site and can be sorted or filtered. If you want to focus on budget-friendly players, inputting “8000” in the filter box will remove all players priced above $8,000.
The two most important salary-related metrics are points per dollar and value:
- Points Per Dollar (Pts/$): This metric measures how many fantasy points a player is projected to score per $1,000 of salary. The formula is Fantasy Points / Salary x 1,000. For example, if Nikola Jokic has a salary of $10,000 and a projection of 58.34 fantasy points, his points per dollar would be 5.83 (58.34 / 10,000 x 1,000).
- Value: This metric compares a player’s projection against a baseline salary expectation. The calculation is:(Fantasy Projection) – (Salary / 1,000 x 5)Using the Jokic example, his value score would be 8.34, meaning he is projected to outperform his salary-based expectation by 8.34 fantasy points. Players with high positive values are often the best DFS targets.
Using Projected Stats for Deeper Insights
Beyond fantasy points, Stokastic’s NBA stat projections offer a full breakdown of each player’s expected contributions in various categories:
- Minutes
- Points
- Rebounds
- Assists
- Made 3’s
- Steals
- Blocks
- Turnovers
This data is useful for fine-tuning rosters, especially in contests where specific categories hold additional weight, such as single-stat bonuses or site-specific scoring nuances.
Conclusion
Projections are the backbone of NBA DFS strategy. They provide essential insights into player performance, expected value and optimal lineup construction. By filtering and analyzing fantasy points, positional eligibility, minutes, salary and value metrics, DFS players can make more informed decisions. Whether you’re targeting elite studs or identifying undervalued plays, leveraging NBA DFS projections is the key to building competitive daily fantasy basketball lineups.
