Let’s dive into the next installment of our UFC DFS series, focusing on UFC Fight Night DFS picks where we identify optimal value and plays. Yes, this includes us banking On Bernardo Sopaj. Let’s explore other contenders on the card.
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UFC DFS Picks for Fight NightÂ
UFC Fight Night DFS picks: Cristian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan is a top pick for this card, with a salary of $8900. He has a 73% chance of winning and a 54% chance of achieving a finish, which is the second highest rate on the card. The combination of his high finish rate and the eighth highest salary makes him an attractive choice.
Duncan’s last victory was against Denis Tiuliulin in November 2023, where he won by TKO in the second round. Prior to that, he lost to Armen Petrosyan by unanimous decision. His opponent, Claudio Ribeiro, has a record of 1-2 in his last three fights, with both losses resulting from strikes. According to the betting market, it is highly likely that this fight will end in a finish. While Duncan may be a popular choice, he remains a key part of my lineup building process.
UFC Fight Night DFS picks: Eryk Anders
Eryk Anders is a contrarian play worth considering. His salary is $9300, and according to our Top Fighters Tool, he has an 81% chance of winning and a 43% chance of winning by finish. However, Anders has had a rough run in the UFC with a 7-8 overall record. He’s 1-3 in his last four fights, with only one of those losses being a finish. His last win was a finish against Kyle Daukaus in December 2022.
Anders’ opponent, Jaime Pickett, is on a losing streak, having dropped four fights in a row. He was also defeated by Bo Nickal in March of last year. Despite Pickett being from my hometown, I believe he may not be fit for the UFC. The expectation is for Anders to take him out early, either through strikes or submissions. There’s a chance this fight could be uneventful, with neither fighter making significant moves. However, Anders’ low projected ownership could be a unique angle for Saturday’s match.
UFC Fight Night DFS picks: Bernardo Sopaj
My favorite underdog pick is Bernardo Sopaj, who is making his UFC debut against Vinicius Oliveira. Sopaj has a 5-1 record in his last 6 fights, with his only loss being a split decision back in 2021. His last three fights have all ended in victories by finish. Conversely, Oliveira is on a two-fight winning streak, both by finish, with the most recent victory in September 2023 on the Contender Series.
Sopaj has nearly the same odds of winning this fight inside the distance, but he can secure those odds with a salary of just $7600. This represents incredible value. Although he seems to be the most popular underdog choice, I believe he fits perfectly in cash games. He can also be used in large field GPPs, provided you can find an alternative low ownership play. It’s rare to see underdogs with his finish and win odds.
