We’re onto another thrilling UFC pay-per-view card this weekend, headlined by none other than Israel Adesanya and Dricus Du Plessis to determine the UFC Middleweight Champion. With some exciting names up and down the card, including local heroes Tai Tuivasa in the heavyweight division and Steve Erceg in the flyweight division, this card is a treat for the hometown crowd. But as far as the best UFC 305 DFS picks for Du Plessis vs. Adesanya go, we’ll have to dive into our expert plays and predictions for Saturday’s festivities. I’ll preview two of the fights with the most value from a DFS perspective.
UFC 305 DFS Picks: Expert Plays & Predictions for Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
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Fight Preview: Tom Nolan & Alex Reyes
Picking Tom Nolan to win this fight isn’t exactly going out on a limb. Some sportsbooks have him priced as north of a -2000 favorite to win. Not only is Nolan a massive favorite, he is -200 to win in the first round. The betting lines clearly indicate Nolan is expected to win the fight, win by finish and win early.
Where this fight becomes interesting from a DFS standpoint is whether we want to pay the $9,800 price tag on Nolan. It’s a massive salary that can handicap the remaining spots in our lineups. Typically, I don’t roster fighters who are priced this highly due to the opportunity cost. With that said, this slate is different.
In my first run of lineups using the Stokastic MMA DFS Sims, Nolan is one of my most rostered fighters despite his salary. This is because the opportunity cost associated with his price tag isn’t as steep as we typically see with a $9,800 fighter.
Both main event fighters are priced in the mid-range, so we don’t have to sacrifice a main event favorite to pay up for Nolan. In addition, there are a handful of viable punt options with upside that make it easier than normal to get to Tom Nolan at $9,800.
Fight Preview: Luana Santos & Casey O’Neill
Of all the fighters priced below $8,000 for this card, Casey O’Neill is the one who shows up in my lineups most frequently. While there are holes in her game, and she is far from a lock to win, O’Neill’s output always makes her a fighter to target. Whenever she does win, she scores well. In four UFC wins, O’Neill has scored at least 109 fantasy points.
The reason O’Neill scores so well in her wins is due to her output. She is constantly active in her fights and is always doing something that scores fantasy points. O’Neill lands 8.41 significant strikes per minute to go along with 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. She also has great cardio and doesn’t slow down as the fight progresses.
Most of O’Neill’s opponents can’t keep up with her pace in extended fights. She also brings finishing upside to the table with three of her four UFC wins coming inside the distance. As a result, she stands out at her price tag for UFC 305.
