This Saturday, Toronto hosts the first UFC PPV of 2024. Before we get into our UFC 297 DFS picks, including some key information on Jimmy Flick and Gillian Robertson, this is an excellent chance to dig into the new Stokastic MMA sims tools to find the best options on the slate.
Last week was the first slate the sims tools was available and I won the $3 GPP on DraftKings my first time using the new product. Now there’s an opportunity to make even more money on a bigger card!
UFC 297 DFS Picks: Gillian Robertson & Jimmy Flick Value
Top Play
Robertson has eight wins in the UFC and has never scored less than 92 points. This is because her path to victory in all fights comes from wrestling and grappling. She’s a specialist with only one path to victory.
While this can create some risk in fights where Robertson doesn’t land takedowns, this is an excellent matchup for her on paper. Polyana Viana has just a 43% takedown defense and Robertson is the more physical fighter of the two. Viana is coming off a submission loss to Iasmin Lucindo and Robertson is a stronger wrestler and grappler than Lucinda. I expect Robertson to land takedowns early and potentially finish this fight in the first or second round by submission.
Top Leverage Option
No fight has seen more line movement this week than the bout between Flick and Malcolm Gordon. After the fight opened as a close to a pick’ em, Gordon has taken money at the books and has become over a -200 favorite at some shops. As a result, Gordon is projected for 37.6% ownership in the Stokastic ownership projections while Flick is projected for just 10% ownership.
The ownership in this fight is dictated by the betting odds but I don’t agree with the line movement. This is a very low level bout and Flick is much more live to win than his 10% projected ownership implies. Flick is the physically stronger of the two in this fight and Gordon defends takedowns at only a 9% clip. If Flick is able to land takedowns, he is not only live to win but also has a path to a big DraftKings score.
UFC 297 DFS Picks and More
Everyone wants proof of concept before putting anything down on Jimmy Flick and/or Gillian Robertson, right? Well, ignore the fact the phone needs some charging, but…
And that’s just how we roll.
