Here’s why you have to read the information and not just the headers: Andy Dalton lineups returned negatively on investment in general for Week 4 (though he was the No. 6 main-slate quarterback). However, we said Dalton is only viable when paired with four receivers. Lo and behold, those Panthers stacks had 33.0% ROI, fifth best among quarterbacks. The point is that the data we get from the NFL DFS Sims is sound; you just have to make sure you are reading it correctly. OK, the soap box has been put away. Now let’s learn how to build NFL DFS stacks with the Sims, using NFL DFS projections and ownership to grab the best Week 5 NFL DFS stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 5 Top NFL DFS Stacks Based on Simulated Stack ROI
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Top Week 5 DraftKings NFL DFS Stack: Cleveland Browns
As unappealing as those Bears and Panthers stacks have seemed early on this season, this DraftKings play may be the most nausea inducing at first glance. But hey — said Panthers and Bears stacks ended up returning on investment; and the Sims right now are showing a lot of flexibility with these Browns stacks, even with Deshaun Watson playing like a bottom-5 quarterback.
Here are the simulated ROIs for the top 5 quarterbacks when paired with two pass catchers:
As you can see, it’s not particularly close. Only four quarterbacks total are returning positively on investment in this stack size, and Watson is the only one above 7%. Expanding that to three pass catchers tightens the top of the pack a little, bringing Caleb Williams, Gardner Minshew and Bo Nix all over the 20% ROI mark — but Watson is still No. 1 at 28.2%.
Has Watson been bad this year? Yes. Is he taking bad sacks and missing throws? Yes. But other than Kirk Cousins lighting it up to start Week 5, the number of quarterbacks with lucrative numbers early on is pretty low, so Watson is actually closer to average overall production than he would have been in recent seasons. More importantly, he has weapons, quite a few of whom are appearing fairly often in high-ROI lineups.
Amari Cooper is the top guy, showing up in 16.7% of the top 300 simulations. That is fifth among all wide receivers and second to only Nico Collins among wideouts $6,000 and up. Cooper’s salary is extremely palatable at $6,200 thanks to the disappointing Browns passing game, but he still has at least eight targets in every game and has seven more total than second place on the team. If the Browns get anything going, Cooper will factor in, and the field is not jumping on that reduced salary just yet; Cooper’s leverage is solid at 4.9%.
Cleveland’s leading receiver, Jerry Jeudy, is not too far behind at 12.1% in top-300 lineups, and his ownership is even lower than Cooper’s. Jeudy is also seeing consistent targets (six to nine in every game), and with the Commanders becoming the potential shootout opponent, consistency can lead to volume in the right game environment.
Those two make up obvious three-man stacks, with Watson the third-most exposed quarterback in top-300 lineups (12.8%). Basically, those three are appearing together in almost every Watson lineup. If you want to add a fourth Brown — which again is returning 28.2% on investment — Jerome Ford is in 7.5% of top-300 lineups, though he is negatively leveraged given his 10.2% in our NFL DFS ownership projections.
Top Week 5 FanDuel NFL DFS Stack: San Francisco 49ers
Thank goodness for the 49ers on FanDuel — at least half our top stacks this week are the ones we expect in our heart of hearts. The Sims are kind to the Browns this week, but they are even kinder to San Francisco. Check out these top-300 lineup exposures for basically the whole collection of skill players:
That gives us a star tight end in nearly 40% of top-300 lineups, a really good chalk running back at about 35% and our quarterback over 21%, plus WR1 and WR2 in the double digits. That is four oft-appearing options for three- and four-man stacks, as well as a Jauan Jennings sprinkle here and there.
Obviously, this depends a decent amount on George Kittle playing, as he is questionable with a rib injury. For the time being, the buzz is leaning towards him being good to go — and given his 22.8% leverage on the field, he is a must for 49ers stacks.
Now, the Purdy-plus-three option is the ideal choice, as it’s returning 29.3% on investment for FanDuel. That’s the highest for any single stack of any size. He still has positive ROI when paired with two pass catchers, but it’s 4.5%, which trails Justin Fields and Watson.
Where Purdy pulls away, however, is his ability to offer the most leverage of any quarterback on the slate (9.8%) AND his appearing in by far the most top-300 lineups in FanDuel Sims.
Sure, Purdy is also the most owned quarterback this week, but it’s only by a hair over Lamar Jackson, and the leverage is still massive given how often he is returning positively in simulations.
Also, Jordan Mason‘s 31.8% ownership may look rough, but he is only second on the FanDuel main slate in that regard (Kyren Williams) and is also positively leveraged. Are these 49ers lineups going to be contrarian? Maybe not exactly, but they still offer some wiggle room on the field and provide both a solid floor and insane upside.
