Last week’s swing on a Bears stack ended up paying off pretty well, with Caleb Williams returning right around that 20% ROI range where he was simulating and Rome Odunze far outpacing his already-solid simulated ROI. So we’re going to keep following the NFL DFS Sims Tool and taking those shots where they recommend. We know how to build NFL DFS stacks, but the Sims churn through thousands of slate scenarios, getting you as close as possible to knowing how the games will shake out. They spit out lineups designed to squeeze every drop of ROI by factoring in salary, NFL DFS projections and ownership. Without further ado, let’s break down the top Week 4 NFL DFS stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel, powered by the Stokastic NFL DFS Sims.
This week, we’re leaning heavily on full four-man stacks with teams at very points in their franchise development.
Week 4 Top NFL DFS Stacks Based on Simulated Stack ROI
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Top Week 4 DraftKings NFL DFS Stack: Carolina Panthers
“Man, what a difference one week makes,” you may be saying. But truth be told, even when Bryce Young was quarterbacking the Panthers, their receivers were showing up quite a lot in simulations. The change is more that they are fully stackable, whereas before Diontae Johnson or Adam Thielen were simply showing up as one-offs.
Here are the top 5 quarterbacks for DraftKings in Week 4, sorted by pairing them with three pass catchers:
There are some important notes here. For one, Dalton is simulating well as part of a full Panthers stack and that’s basically it. Overall, his projected ROI is slightly negative across top-300 simulated lineups, but it is fourth when paired with two receivers and first with three receivers. This bears out in Dalton appearing in only 4% of top-300 lineups.
His pass catchers, on the other hand, are everywhere in the best simulated lineups. Three Panthers are appearing in over 30% of the top 300 entries, making it pretty darn easy to build four-man Carolina stacks. Johnson leads the way at 36.7% exposure and 4% return on investment overall, and Jonathan Mingo and Chuba Hubbard are slightly behind at 32.3% exposure each. That said, Mingo is the No. 1 receiver in terms of simulated ROI — and it’s over double second place.
That second-place guy? Carolina rookie Xavier Legette (12.5%), who appears in 8.3% of top-300 lineups. And Johnson is third among wide receivers in ROI, so really you can’t go too wrong with any of the Panthers top receivers, save for Thielen, who does not appear in a single top-300 lineup in the latest run of simulations.
That’s the appeal of Panthers stacks this week. You shouldn’t go overboard since Dalton himself is only the No. 7 quarterback in terms of appearances in top-300 simulated lineups. But when you do go with Carolina, you have four guys who are at or near the top of the ROI board — and all of them give you positive leverage as well since their optimality outpaces their NFL DFS ownership projections.
We like flexibility in our lineup building, even from organizations that have one foot in the gutter.
Top Week 4 FanDuel NFL DFS Stack: Houston Texans
This is another situation where the NFL DFS Sims strongly favor full stacking with this team; otherwise the simulated ROI is negative. At least this time it is with a Texans team (and quarterback) that, generally speaking, has a safer floor.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans got their doors beaten in by the Vikings last week, but now they get the Jaguars, a team that is allowing passing production as much as most any team in the league.
Check out these simulated FanDuel ROIs for Stroud and other stacking options:
Stroud blows the other quarterbacks out of the water in terms of ROI as part of a four-man stack, and though his returns are negative with two pass catchers, his -2.4% ROI there is seventh among main-slate quarterbacks. More importantly, he has some lucrative pairings with whom we can match Stroud.
First of all is the obvious breakout star of the Texans receiving corps, Nico Collins. Though Collins has negative ROI in simulations, that is mostly exacerbated by his steep $7,700 salary, and he still appears in over 20% of top-300 lineups. Plus, his optimality gives him 4% leverage on field ownership, and he has the safest floor of any Texans receiver.
The other highly rated wideout is much less safe given his injury circumstances but is currently simulating very well. Tank Dell is dealing with a chest injury; however, DeMeco Ryans stated that he believes Dell will be fine. Now, whether he meant long-term or for Week 4 is TBD. For the time being, we’ll operate like he’s going to play, and his 14% exposure in top-300 lineups is sixth among wide receivers.
Stroud himself appears in 13.7% of top-300 lineups, which trails only elite running quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray, and he projects for less ownership (and more leverage than Daniels, about the same leverage as Murray).
But the real star for these Texans this week is running back Cam Akers, who is the most exposed player on the Week 4 main slate by a mile. With Joe Mixon‘s status for this game looking iffy, Akers appears in a whopping 80.3% of top-300 lineups, his 42.1% ROI is double every other player, and he offers over 60% leverage with his ownership currently projecting below 20%. The next-highest-leveraged player is D.J. Moore at 20.4%.
So basically, whether you’re stacking the Texans or not, the Sims suggest a heavy, heavy dose of Akers this week. And if you do stack them, the Collins, Dell, Akers combo with Stroud is looking like a real money combination — if Dell plays.
