Opportunity is the name of the game when playing DFS. A player can’t score fantasy points unless they have the opportunity to score. In NBA DFS, there is an easy way to try and predict which players will have more chances to rack up fantasy points than others. When gauging a player’s chance at opportunity, we want to look at their game environment. Any game that is above a 225 total is a great place to start, as those games are more likely to have efficient offense versus mediocre defense. Let’s see tonight’s top two spots that meet these criteria and should be popular NBA DFS game environments among the field.
Today’s Top NBA DFS Game Environments (March 15)
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
Total: 222
The Nuggets are 10-point favorites on the road tonight taking on the Spurs in what should be a fairly easy game to read. While Denver isn’t necessarily the fastest-paced team in the league, the Spurs give them a pace-up opportunity tonight, being the third-fastest team in the league. To make this matchup even better, San Antonio has the seventh-worst defense in the NBA.
MVP candidate Nikola Jokic is in play tonight facing off against the 29th-worst team in defense against centers and is projected for 61.66 DraftKings points, the highest on the slate. He’s priced at $11,800 on DraftKings and projected for only 14% ownership and a 43% boom chance in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool, another category where Jokic ranks the highest on the slate.
Two other players to focus on from the Nuggets will be point guard Jamal Murray at $8,100 and small forward/power forward Michael Porter Jr. at $6,400. Murray is currently projected for 42.79 DraftKings points, a 31% boom chance and a 22% chance at being optimal. Porter gets a soft matchup with the Spurs, who rank 29th in defense against small forward/power forward, and he projects great at 32 DraftKings points in 33 minutes of action. The Nuggets Big 3 can smash this spot and should be in for a big night fantasy-wise.
Victor Wembanyama is $10,500 tonight and can be a great spend-up pivot off of Jokic. He is projected for 50 DraftKings points in 30 minutes in a soft matchup against the Nuggets, who rank 25th in defense against centers. His projected ownership is what stands out the most, with Wembanyama only being projected for a shocking 2% ownership. He has tremendous upside with his ability to rack up five-plus stocks in any game, on top of scoring 25 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. If you want to switch up from Jokic, I advise looking to Wembanyama.
Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz
Total: 224
This matchup is by far the best game environment on the slate. The Hawks are 2-point favorites against a Utah team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency while being the sixth-fastest-paced team in the NBA. Much like the Jazz, the Hawks are no stranger to fast pace and bad defense, as they are the fourth-fastest team and have the third-worst defense in the league. Point guard Dejounte Murray looks great tonight at his $9,500 price tag on DraftKings. Murray is projected for 50 DraftKings points, a 37% boom chance and a 21% chance at being optimal against Jazz, who rank 25th in defense against point guard.
We will have to keep an eye out for the injury report for this game, as shooting guard/small forward Bogdan Bogdanovic and power forward/center Jalen Johnson are both listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. This is the last game to lock, and DraftKings rolls out a non-late swap today. If either of these players are ruled out, someone like small forward/power forward De’Andre Hunter at $5,600 will receive a boost for playing time. Target Murray and be aware of any injury related news for this team.
Utah has some great options for mid-tier guys tonight, with three players over $6,500 being projected for 5x value. Point guard Keyonte George at $6,600 is a great place to start being projected for 34 DraftKings points in 35 minutes of action. Outside of a game where George exited after only playing six minutes and did not return, he has scored 41 DraftKings points in his last four games while averaging 37 minutes a game. His 27% usage rate through his last four games is also an encouraging sign for George.
Collin Sexton is another mid-tier guy projecting well with his price at $7,300. Sexton has the highest boom chance on this team at 25% with a 21% chance at being optimal. John Collins at $7,100 is worth a mention, as he is projected for 35 DraftKings points in a friendly matchup against the Hawks, who rank 26th in defense against power forward/center. He is projected for 10% ownership, which could be taken advantage of, especially on a slate like tonight’s where power forward/center has multiple popular players that the field will more than likely be getting to. Overall, this is a great game for offense to be on display.
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