Opportunity is the name of the game when playing DFS. A player can’t score fantasy points unless they have the opportunity to score. In NBA DFS, there is an easy way to try and predict which players will have more chances to rack up fantasy points than others. When gauging a player’s chance at opportunity, we want to look at their game environment. Any game that is above a 225 total is a great place to start, as those games are more likely to have efficient offense versus mediocre defense. Let’s see tonight’s top two spots that meet these criteria and should be popular NBA DFS game environments among the field.
Today’s Top NBA DFS Game Environments (March 18)
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers
Total: 225
This matchup has the makings of a marquee matchup with both teams ranking in the top 5 for fastest pace and the Hawks a bottom-5 team in defensive efficiency. Lebron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable for this contest, but the 8.5-point spread suggests they both will play.
Davis at $10,200 stands out as the top target from this team with his 54 DraftKings points projection and a 43% boom chance. His matchup plays a part in his projections so high, as the Hawks are the third-worst team in defense against centers. LeBron is really interesting today in the sense that he is only projected for 4% ownership compared to a 16% projection for Davis. We know what James is capable of doing on a nightly basis, and this could be a great spot to get him at low ownership.
On the Hawks side, Jalen Johnson at $7,500 is great for today, projected for 37 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. Johnson averages 1.08 fantasy points per minute and has the upside of playing high minutes in a competitive setting. The price tag and power forward and center eligibility make it hard to get away from Johnson tonight.
Bogdan Bogdanovic at $6,600 has the same advantages that Johnson has. Bogdan has shooting guard/small forward eligibility and is projected for 32 minutes, which he can easily go over if the game stays competitive. He is pulling little ownership at 5% and has a soft matchup against the Lakers, who are 26th in defense against shooting guards. The Hawks will need scoring to keep up with the Lakers tonight, so look to these mid-tier players pulling little ownership to get different from the field.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz
Total: 223
These teams just matched up against each other two days ago and are running it back with the Timberwolves 6-point favorites in Utah. Anthony Edwards has been on a tear in his last three games, averaging 31 points, eight rebounds, five assists and 57.25 DraftKings points. Edwards scored 65 DraftKings points two days ago against this Jazz team and is in for another big night, projected for 51 DraftKings points and a 34% boom chance. Edwards is $10,000 and projected to be only 6% owned, a number that I look to be overweight on tonight.
Rudy Gobert will be another great option to get to from the T-Wolves. He is currently listed as questionable but will be in an amazing spot if he can suit up. Gobert is $7,900 and projected for 41 DraftKings points and a 13% chance at being optimal in a matchup with the 30th-ranked defense against centers. In the event that Gobert cannot play, $7,300 Naz Reid will get a bump in projections as he will more than likely get the starting nod. Reid got the start against this Jazz team two days ago and racked up a whopping 56 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. These players are primed for a high-scoring night against one of the worst defensive teams in the league, one that also plays at a top-3 pace.
I have little interest in anyone from the Jazz side, as this is a brutal matchup for them. Lauri Markkanen is $7,900 and is expected to return after missing six games with an injury. Markkanen is projected for 37 DraftKings points and a 14% boom chance, both the highest projections on this Jazz team. I wouldn’t play Markkanen in cash games, but he is definitely worth a shot in large-field GPP tournaments with his ownership projection at 1%. Outside of Markkanen, I can’t confidently tout any other players given their projections reflect how hard of a matchup this is for them. Stick to the Timberwolves side when targeting this game.
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