Today’s top NBA DFS game environments features both the Pistons-Pacers and Raptors-Kings, but first a little note on how the data is viewed.
When gauging a player’s chance at opportunity, we want to look at their game environment. Any game that is above a 225 total is a great place to start, as those games are more likely to have efficient offense versus mediocre defense. Let’s see tonight’s top two spots that meet these criteria and should be popular NBA DFS game environments among the field.
Today’s Top NBA DFS Game Environments (March 20)
Pistons-Pacers
Total: 234.5
The Pistons take on the Pacers tonight as 10 point dogs at home in a game where both teams rank in the top seven for fastest pace in the NBA while also being in the bottom six for worst defensive rating. Even though the Pacers might be the better team, it is the Pistons side that I have the most interest in today.
Cade Cunningham at $7,900 gets a decent matchup with the Pacers ranking 18th in DvP against point guards and is projected for 42.19 DKFP in 32 minutes. Cunningham has the highest boom percentage on the Pistons at 28% as well as the highest optimal chance at 18%. With the Pacers backcourt defense being a soft spot, Jaden Ivey at $6,600 is another player to consider and is projected for 30 DKFP while only pulling 2% ownership. Ivey isn’t someone I would want to be super heavy on tonight, but I definitely don’t mind having 8%-10% of him in my lineups.
Jalen Duren at $6,900 will be in play today with Duren facing the 20th ranked defense versus centers and is projected for 36 DKFP in 28 minutes. As long as this game stays competitive, which is asking for a lot with the Pistons, these players should benefit massively from facing the fastest paced team in the NBA.
On the other side, the Pacers ownership is a little more spread out compared to the Pistons with the Pacers having five players projected for more than 10% ownership. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton stands out from this team as Haliburton is projected for 47 DKFP with a 31% boom chance and a 14% chance at being optimal. We get a really good price on him tonight at $8,900 along with a great matchup in the 28th ranked defense versus point guards.
Center Myles Turner at $6,600 benefits from the same factors that Haliburton does with the Pistons being the 28th ranked defense versus centers and a friendly price tag at $6,600, a couple hundred cheaper than Duren. Turner is projected for 32.65 DKFP in 28 minutes with a 12% boom chance. Pascal Siakam at $7,700 rounds this team out with Siakam being projected for 38.39 DKFP in 32 minutes with the second highest boom chance on this team at 16%. His 10% ownership is interesting as I wouldn’t mind to getting to double that with the Pistons being such an encouraging matchup for him.
The best thing about this game is a lot of the players are in the mid tier price range and can be played with some top spend up options like SGA or Domantas Sabonis.
Raptors-Kings – NBA DFS Game Environments Breakdown
Total: 233.5
This is another matchup with a fairly large home underdog in the Raptors who are given 11 points at home versus the Kings tonight. Both of these teams are right outside the top 10 for fastest pace in the NBA while both being in the bottom eleven for worst defense.
You’re going to want to get to the Kings tonight. Starting off with Domantas Sabonis at $10,700 who gets a dream matchup against the white salamander, Kelly Olynyk. Yes that is an actual nickname given to Olynyk, look it up. Sabonis has the highest boom chance of any player on this slate at a 34% chance while pulling 20% ownership.
Sabonis is projected for 55.86 DKFP and I am going to be well over the field on his ownership as I will always target centers versus the Raptors. They are ranked 19th in DvP against centers, but if you watch the Raptors play, you will think to your self “This is the worst paint defense I have seen in my life”.
De’Aaron Fox at $9,000 is the next highest rated played in the Boom/Bust tool with a 29% boom chance and projected for 47 DKFP in 35 minutes. Although I don’t feel he is a necessity in this spot, his 19% ownership is warranted due to this game being played with a defensive atmosphere of the All-Star game. Malik Monk at $6,300 will be incredibly popular across the field with his ownership projection sitting at 35% as of right now with a boom chance of 21% and an optimal chance of 13%. Monk is projected for 33.52 DKFP in 28 minutes. Most important piece from this team will be Sabonis with his matchup being a great one tonight.
The Raptors are getting thin on bodies with Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl all being out for tonight’s contest. That leaves us with the fossils of the Raptors roster with guys like Jordan Nwora at $3,800 and Jontay Porter at $4,000 getting a bulk of the ownership from this team. Nwora is the highest projected player on this slate in terms of ownership and optimal percentage with Nwora pulling a projected 61% ownership with a 40% chance at being optimal.
I’m sure as we get injury news throughout the day those numbers will decrease, but as of now, Nwora looks to be the top value play for tonight. Outside of Nwora, not many guys from this team will be getting jammed into my lineups tonight. Jontay Porter is projected for 26% ownership which is a fair number to get to considering his minutes averaging out to around 20. Other than those two, I look to focus on the Kings side of this game with the Raptors defense being a great target for tonight.
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