One of the biggest factors in NBA DFS is game environment and seeing which players will have the most opportunity. It’s what makes NBA DFS projections so valuable.
When gauging a player’s chance at opportunity, the first place to look is the game total. Typically, the games with a total of 230 or higher are prime target spots as those happen to be the games with the efficient offense combined with mediocre defense.
Let’s see tonight’s top two spots that meet this criteria and should be popular game environments amongst the field.
Today’s Top NBA DFS Game Environments (March 13)
Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons
Total 232.5
Neither of these teams are known for their explosive or high-flying offense, but they are known for their terrible defense as both teams rank in the bottom 10 for defensive rating.
On top of the terrible defense, these teams know how to get up and down the court with the both ranking in the top 11 for fastest pace in the league.
The Pistons are a side that I will be trying to target heavily, starting with Jalen Duren ($6,700 on DraftKings). The Raptors got demolished down low by Nikola Jokic in their previous outing due with Kelly Olynyk defending the paint. Duren is currently projected for 36.90 DraftKings Fantasy Points with 31% ownership and a 19% chance at being optimal. Cade Cunningham is $8,600 on DK and my most preferred player from this team outside of Duren. In his last four games, Cunningham is averaging 50.31 DKFP on 34 minutes per game. He’s a 1.22 fantasy points per minute player in a much similar situation as Duren. The Raptors are 24th in DvP against point guards.
On the Raptors side, we have some injury news that we are waiting on. Immanuel Quickley is listed questionable, but it is expected that he suits up. If he does play, he’s projected for 45 DKFP in 36 minutes of play vs. the Pistons who rank dead last in DvP against point guards. Gary Trent Jr. is another player listed as questionable but expected to play. Trent Jr. will be very appealing if he does play. He’s projected for 28 DK points in 33 minutes with a $5,600 price tag. This game has tons of mid price value and will be worth a look when building lineups tonight.
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Total: 233
The Warriors are playing in their third game without Stephen Curry as they travel to face off against Luka Doncic and friends in the highest total game on the main slate. The Mavericks offense has been amazing in their last five games, averaging 123 PPG on 50% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from behind the arc.
A big part of that success is the result of the historic stretch Luka is on right now. He has posted a triple-double in 7 straight games and is averaging 73.75 DKFP throughout that stretch. I think it’s safe to say Luka is as close to a lock for tonight as it gets. Daniel Gafford at $5,000 is the next most popular player from the Mavs. He’s averaging 34 DKFP throughout his last four games at 22 minutes per game. The Warriors are expected to play small ball for majority of the game so this will be a great game script for Gafford to rack up minutes and fantasy points. Get to Luka and Gafford in your lineups.
The Warriors are unfortunately not as easy to read, but there are some places you can get contrarian. One player that pops out to me is Jonathan Kuminga priced at $7,000 going against the worst DvP team against power forwards. Kuminga is drawing 11% ownership as of now with a 12% chance at being optimal according to our Boom/Bust tool. He gets a fair share of volume averaging about 14 FGA per game in his last five games, so the opportunity for him to score 20+ points will always be there. I think he’s worth a shot in some large-field GPP tournaments.
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