With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. That’s why we need MLB DFS pivots.
The goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being undrowned across the field. Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.
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Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find the best MLB DFS pivots for today.
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$8,600 – Garrett Crochet
Crochet gets the to face off against the Twins, in a game that has the lowest total on the main slate, 6.5. The Twins have been all over the place this season and have burned me multiple times, whether it’s fading them or stacking them, I can’t get them right. With that being said, I’m ready to get burned again.
The Twins have been atrocious against RHP this season, owning the 5th highest strikeout rate at 27%, the 3rd lowest batting average at .203, and the 3rd worst OBP percentage at .286…TURRIBLE. Meanwhile, Crochet has been an ELITE strikeout thrower, having a 32.7% strikeout rate, 3rd highest among SP with 20 IP.
Now how can we roster Garrett tonight? Crochet is projecting for 19.7% ownership and provides a route off of $8,900 Clarke Schmidt and $9,200 Reynaldo Lopez, both pulling +24% ownership.
Personally, I like the idea of replacing a lot of Reynaldo ownership with Garrett, due to the fact that we get a decent amount of salary relief from that pivot, while still having a pitcher with high K upside in an elite matchup. No sugar coating it, Garrett will decide how my night goes and I’ll live with the results.Â
$6,500 Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer takes the mound against the Cubs who have a 25.3% strikeout rate in the last seven days, 8th highest in the league. We get a huge weather boost for this matchup tonight with the game taking place at Wrigley Field, where wind gusts of 10 MPH will be blowing in from center field, and temperatures forecasted to be in the high 30s at time of first pitch.
Arrighetti has struggled in two starts this season, but let’s give him the benefit of the doubt considering they came against the Royals and the Braves, two very elite offenses. I’m not insinuating that the Cubs don’t have a great offense, but this can be considered as Spencer’s softest matchup this season, given the weather benefit and the Cubs being strikeout happy as of recent.
Rostering Arrighetti tonight gives us the ability to play one of the top tier pitchers like $10,400 Joe Ryan or $8,900 Clarke Schmidt, while still being able to get some bats from Coors, ATL, or NYY, all rating as top 5 stacks in our Top Stacks tool. Look to get to a 14.6% Spencer Arrighetti as a top value option on a slate with limited pivot spots at pitcher.
Get started finding the best MLB DFS pivots by using Stokastic tools today! Check out all we have to offer here!
