Week 2’s Thursday Night Football brings us an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. There is a ton of star power in this game, and to help us sort through all the potential plays, we have turned to Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims to generate 10,000 lineups and create a simulation of tonight’s contest based on Stokastic’s TNF NFL DFS ownership projections compared to our NFL DFS projections. This will allow us to identify top-ROI lineups and compare them to the field. Let’s break down our top Showdown NFL DFS Picks and stacks for this Bills-Dolphins TNF matchup to help you build winning lineups.
TNF DFS Ownership, Projections & Stacks: Showdown Picks From Sims
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Now let’s get into what the Sims show us about tonight’s TNF DFS slate in terms of Dolphins stacks, ownership and leverage opportunities.
Quarterback Analysis: Leverage in the Flex
Both Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa are strong plays in the Flex spot, providing excellent leverage compared to the field:
- Allen: Appearing in 56% of our top-ROI lineups, compared to 47% ownership by the field.
- Tagovailoa: In 69.7% of our top-300 ROI lineups, significantly higher than the field’s 48%.
By placing these quarterbacks in the Flex, you gain valuable leverage that can set your lineups apart in large-field contests.
Quarterbacks in the Captain Spot: Under or Overexposed?
When it comes to the Captain spot, the exposure to Tagovailoa and Allen differs from the field:
- Tagovailoa: 9.7% in our top-300 lineups, slightly more than the field’s 7% ownership.
- Allen: A bit negatively leveraged, with 11% exposure vs. 16% field ownership. Though Allen is 15% to be Captain optimal, he’s projected to be over-owned at 17.5%.
The data suggests that Tagovailoa is a better Captain spot choice for leverage, while Allen may be a riskier play in this slot.
Dolphins Wide Receivers: Tyreek Hill Leads the Way
The NFL DFS Sims love Tyreek Hill in this matchup. He’s in 45% of the top 300 lineups, more than double the field’s 22.4% ownership. His 19.7% leverage score in the Captain spot makes him the top leverage play on the slate. Jaylen Waddle appears less frequently in top-ROI lineups compared to the field (22.3% in the Flex vs. 31% by the field). However, he remains a solid option. Rest of the Dolphins Wide Receivers: The remaining Miami wide receivers present a mixed bag. Here’s the Flex ownership for some lower-cost options on this TNF NFL DFS slate:
- Jonnu Smith: 17%
- Braxton Berrios: 9.3%
- Julian Hill: 4%
- Durham Smythe: 2.7%
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Bills Wide Receivers: Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid Stand Out
The Bills receiving corps offers some intriguing options, with Keon Coleman leading the team in snaps and routes run last week. Our top lineups have Coleman in the Captain spot 8.6% of the time, slightly above the field’s 6.3%.
We’re overweight on Dalton Kincaid, who appears in 36.3% of top-ROI lineups compared 28.6% for the field. He could be a sneaky play with potential upside.
Curtis Samuel is battling a toe injury, which limited him to just nine routes last week. Mack Hollins seems to be ahead of him on the depth chart and could be a decent punt play.
Running Backs: A Messy Situation
The Dolphins backfield is tricky with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane questionable. Jeff Wilson and Jaylen Wright are wild cards, but we don’t have enough information to feel confident in their roles.
For the Bills, James Cook is slightly negatively leveraged in both the Captain and Flex spots, so tread cautiously when building lineups around him.
Kickers & DST: High-Leverage Plays
Kickers and defenses often provide great leverage in Showdown contests, and this slate is no exception. Tyler Bass (Bills) is a strong leverage play in the Flex, offering excellent value. The Dolphins DST is another solid Flex play, appearing in the top 300 lineups more often than the field. These low-cost options are ideal for rounding out your lineups and differentiating from the masses.
TNF Showdown NFL DFS Stacks: MIA 5-1 Lineups Show Positive Leverage
Our NFL DFS Sims reveal that Miami 5-1 stacks are positively leveraged, appearing more frequently in top-ROI lineups than they are owned by the field. On the flip side, Buffalo 4-2 stacks are negatively leveraged and less likely to yield top results.
Top-300 Lineups Stacking:
- BUF 2 | MIA 4: 28.43%
- BUF 3 | MIA 3: 27.09%
- BUF 1 | MIA 5: 20.07%
- BUF 4 | MIA 2: 12.37%
- BUF 5 | MIA 1: 12.04%
Consider leaning more on Miami-heavy stacks to gain a leverage edge in this contest.
TL;DR Showdown NFL DFS Picks for Bills-Dolphins
Quarterbacks provide great leverage in the Flex spot. Hill is under-owned in the Captain spot, making him the top leverage play. Bass and the Dolphins DST are strong Flex plays. Miami 5-1 stacks are positively leveraged and worth targeting for this slate.
