Monday Night Football brings the second doubleheader of the season, which also means the second two-game featured slate, one that will create ample opportunities across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down the Monday Night Mayhem for Week 4 with the Titans-Dolphins and Seahawks-Lions comprising the player pool. Let’s get ready by analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Monday Night Mayhem DFS Picks: Week 4 NFL DFS Picks
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With complete coverage of the doubleheader Monday Night Football matchups — Titans-Dolphins and Seahawks-Lions — let’s break down the top plays and strategies for this exciting slate.
Quarterback NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 4: Geno Smith
Geno Smith
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,900
FanDuel: $6,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.93
FanDuel: 16.77
It is hard to believe this is Geno Smith’s fifth season in Seattle. Yes, he was a backup to Russell Wilson in 2020 and 2021, before earning Pro Bowl honors each of the last two years. In 2022 he led the NFL and set a franchise record with a 69.8% completion rate. In 2023, he was again among the cream of the crop for that category, while leading the league with four fourth quarter comebacks and five game winning drives.
It has been just three games, but Smith has again worked his magic, complete 74.8% of his passes, though tossing just three touchdowns, against a trio of interceptions. The Detroit defense has been solid, keeping Matthew Stafford (34 of 49, 317 yards, 1 TD), Baker Mayfield (12 of 19, 185 yards 1 TD) and Kyler Murray (21 of 34, 207 yards and 1 TD) in check.
Smith’s skillset and pass-catchers are in line with his fellow field generals, so ti will be interesting to see how new head coach Mike Macdonald prepares his team, in an effort to join the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs as the only other teams at 4-0.
Quarterback Positional Preview for Monday Night Mayhem
Getting into the other three options, it is easy to see how Smith and opposing signal-caller Jared Goff are the two coveted options tonight. Goff’s pass catchers rival those of Smith’s, when including the backfield and tight ends. To date, Seattle has faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle, which goes more towards explaining the undefeated record than anything else.
Goff is the first real test, plus he has multiple Pro Bowl caliber players surrounding him at the skill positions. This should be a spirited matchup, along with the potential to provide the most fantasy goodness, with a projected game total that is nearly 10 points higher than the opener.
- Smith: Really a coinflip at the top, so let personal preference and strategy against The Masses be your guide.
- Goff: Slight salary premium, could also see more work to the running backs, against a Seahawks team that has not yet been tested by a competent offese.
- Tyler Huntley: The Miami native was signed off the Baltimore practice squad two weeks ago and with Thompson (ribs) out, he is getting the nod over Boyle, who will again serve as the backup. Over the last three seasons, Huntley did have nine starts for the Ravens. Even though he has had limited opportunities with his new teammates, he easily outclasses his counterpart from a median fantasy point projection perspective.
- Will Levis: Tonight will be his 13th career start and appearance, which is about equal to the game-experience of Huntley, albeit in a less pressure packed environment than replacing an MVP for a team with annual playoff aspirations. Levis has had poor situational awareness, trying to throw away the ball in Week 1 against Chicago, with the toss being intercepted for a pick-six. He has five interceptions and three fumbles, against only four touchdown passes – yikes.
Running Back NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 4: De’Von Achane
De’Von Achane
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,200
FanDuel: $7,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.44
FanDuel: 13.75
Raheem Mostert (chest) is questionable, only being able to practice in a limited manner this week. Even if he is able to give it a go, De’Von Achane will likely see something along the lines of 60% of the opportunities.
That would likely be in the 15-to-18 carries plus targets realm, with Achane already getting 10, 22 and 11 carries and seven, seven and five targets. Games 2 and 3 were without Mostert, with last week being a 24-3 drubbing by Seattle.
If Mostert is out, then Jeff Wilson Jr. will likely see a handful of opportunities as the RB2, with rookie Jaylen Wright in the mix for two or three looks, with the chance of tripling that if there is mop-up duty. Fullback Alec Ingold has two, two and one totes, with one, zero and three targets. That does not move the needed for “classic” rosters, but it does have him as a differentiator for the single-game action on DraftKings.
Running Back Positional Preview for Monday Night Mayhem
If Mostert is a go, then all four teams are looking at shared backfields. Zach Charbonnet will give way for most of the rushing work as Kenneth Walker III is expected to play without restrictions, knocking this duo down the list.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery rate out as the next two highest median fantasy point projections after Achane. This duo is capable in all facets of the game, with Gibbs the more explosive option, while Monty is the trusted red zone workhorse, though Gibbs does have a 14 to 10 opportunity edge, through three games.
The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Tyjae Spears as the first back with a single-digit fantasy outlook, with teammate Tony Pollard in the scrum with Montgomery and Walker.
Decisions abound and while there is a five-man cadre, a touchdown from the next tier could easily upset the DFS apple cart.
- Achane: Should land on nearly two-thirds of all rosters, if Mostert is out.
- Gibbs: Multi-touchdown threat, can score from anywhere on the field.
- Montgomery: Multi-touchdown threat, though more situational than Gibbs in that his best bet is in the red zone, with lots of competition from his teammates.
- Walker: Time and time again he has broken off a long run, usually accompanied by a touchdown. Less involved in the passing game than Charbonnet.
- Pollard: Looks more like he did two years ago, though still not at the efficiency level that earned him Pro Bowl honors, as the RB2 for Dallas.
- Charbonnet: Filled in well as the RB1, though size likely prevents him from being a consistent every down back. He has a knack for getting into open field, which helps in the passing game. Another team loaded with red zone options.
- Mostert/Wilson: If Mostert plays, he lands here with the injury uncertainty, if he is out, then Wilson should see the opportunities spelling Achane, with rookie Wright the wild card.
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Pass Catcher NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,200
FanDuel: $8,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.71
FanDuel: 15.37
While this slate will be using the classic DFS roster format, it does make sense to put the wide receivers and tight ends together in one group. Even with four teams comprising the player pool, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands out well above most of his peers. Looking at the Stokastic NFL DFS projections, Brown has nearly a four fantasy point advantage over DK Metcalf on DraftKings, with a three point median projection lead on the blue site.
No other player is within six median fantasy points on either site, with Tyreek Hill being the third highest option. Focusing on just the skill position players, Achane is the only other option within two fantasy points of St. Brown. That reinforces how top-heavy the Monday Night Mayhem player pool is, while also providing a reminder that there are many paths to DFS victory, in this chaotic sport. Brown is a priority, but he is not the only way to find DFS success.
Pass Catchers Preview for Monday Night Mayhem
If Hill was working with Tua Tagovailoa tonight, instead of Huntley, he would likely be battling St. Brown for top honors. Instead, we have a murky middleclass, though Hill has a premium salary. Harkening back to 2017, most readers will remember the “Screen Mary” where Kansas City was on their own 43 yard line, with two seconds remaining in the game, when coach Andy Reid went with a screen pass to Hill, having sent several downfield blockers out in routes. This resulted in a spectacularly unorthodox touchdown and a reminder to never count out Hill under any circumstances.
Detroit is back to full strength with Sam LaPorta (ankle) practicing in full on Friday and Saturday. Clearly he is the priority tight end, though anyone who ends up with a touchdown is likely to be in the mix for that actual honor. Jameson Williams dipped to three targets in Week 3, though he had nine and 11 in the first two games. He appears to be ready to level-up to the official WR2, though there could still be bumps in the road.
Seattle is also crowded, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant all battling Metcalf for targets. There is no obvious play among them and similar to their hosts, the Seahawks have not seen Smith forcing it to any pass-catcher in particular.
- St. Brown: Obviously the priority, but not the only way to victory.
- Metcalf: Threat to score from anywhere on the field and has a Pro Bowl quarterback.
- Hill: Threat to score from anywhere on the field, but has a new quarterback. Technically Huntley made the Pro Bowl in 2022, but he only started four games.
- Smith-Njigba and Lockett: Prefer the former, but so does the field, making the latter a direct leverage play.
- Williams: Needs to prove new workshare is not a fluke.
- Jaylen Waddle: Likely to see more of a short-catch role, likely to benefit from his quarterback scrambling to extend plays.
- Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd: Competent, veteran receivers, with an incompetent quarterback.
- Vaya con Dios: Best of luck with the rest of the options.
- Laporta: The most popular option, though there are plenty of salary savers below him.
- Fant: Does have familiarity with his quarterback.
- Jonnu Smith: Huntley at least has experience with a pass catching tight end from his Baltimore days.
- Chig Okonkwo: Last guy worthy of his own line, and just barely at that.
- Brock Wright, Josh Whyle, Durham Smythe and Julian Hill: Can you identify which is the made up player?
Defense-Special Teams Preview for Monday Night Mayhem
- Miami Dolphins: Just three takeaways in the first trio of tilts, Levis could give that up in the first half.
- Tennessee Titans: Hard to know how Huntley will perform, he does has an elevated 7.82% sack rate for his career, 2% interception rate is about average.
- Detroit Lions: Underrated unit, though Smith is a savvy signal-caller.
- Seattle Seahawks: In play, would be ahead of Detroit if this game were taking place in front of the 12s.
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