These wide receivers are going to kill your Best Ball drafts if you go too heavy on them. That may sound extreme, but some wide receivers this year are going in ranges where you can find far better, tournament-winning value. Now, if these WRs fall well below ADP, OK — go crazy. But we’re going with our Best Ball Rankings, and these are the four most overvalued Best Ball wide receivers for the 2024 season.
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Overvalued Best Ball Wide Receivers for 2024
These ADPs are specific to Underdog Fantasy. We also offer ADP information for Drafters and DraftKings in our FREE Best Ball WR rankings. Keep in mind that the valuation of each wide receiver can vary depending on the site you’re using.
Calvin Ridley: WR42, ADP 56.3
We have DeAndre Hopkins well ahead of Ridley, and for good reason. Ridley came back from suspension last year and didn’t have the best season. He was only 31st in yards per route run and a 22% target share in Jacksonville, and one could easily argue that the receivers in Tennessee are better given the additions made in the offseason. Ridley is now competing with Hopkins and Tyler Boyd; at the very least, the Titans wide receiver room is comparable to the Jaguars’.
Hopkins bested Ridley in nearly metric on an inferior offense, finishing 15th in yards per route run at age 31. The age clip could be coming for Hopkins, but Ridley is 30 himself, so it’s tough to make an age regression argument for one and not the other — especially given that Ridley relies more on explosiveness, whereas Hopkins has always been more about finesse and route running.
Will Levis being the quarterback is also a concern, as is the terrible Titans offensive line. They may still throw a lot, but if any major volume comes, Hopkins will be the primary beneficiary, not Ridley.
Keon Coleman: WR47, ADP 79.2
This is a good example of upside versus median outcomes and why it is still a good idea to take some of these players, even if they are overvalued at their current ADP.
This is a tough situation for the Bills. The reason Coleman is going so high as a rookie is they lost Stefon Diggs, which created a chasm at wide receiver. Most are assuming Dalton Kincaid is going to lead the team in targets, with Coleman possibly second. The Bills drafted him 33rd overall — a bit rich considering he didn’t have the most efficient profile at Florida State, posting the 102nd-most yards per route run among receivers with at 75 targets in college last year. His most productive college season was 798 yards, and he also has pretty modest athleticism for the position (4.61 40-yard dash).
There are simply a lot of efficiency concerns with Coleman, though 33rd overall picks are generally going to get a good number of opportunities. Again, there are few high-caliber wide receivers in this Bills offense, but also last year Buffalo flipped the offense to an extremely run-heavy system. There’s a chance the run rate will get even higher this year given how little firepower the team has at receiver and how good the Bills project to be. There is a lot of downside with Coleman, so I prefer targeting other pieces of the Bills like Khalil Shakir at a cheaper ADP.
Jameson Williams: WR50, ADP 84.7
Williams is a bit of a darling among Best Ball Twitter this year, but few are really talking about the downside. He has been woefully inefficient; now, there are some excuses like the ACL injury and a gambling suspension, and the loss of Josh Reynolds has created a hypothetical void in targets that the public things Williams is going to fill.
He isn’t any higher than the No. 3 pass catcher on the Lions — behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and possibly even Jahmyr Gibbs — and there is also some weird stuff on Williams’ profile. Detroit essentially asked him to run go routes for much of last season; no other top receivers are even close to Williams’ miles per hour per route run. What this means is that Williams does not have a developed route tree at this point.
Even if he develops, he is not going to get more targets than St. Brown or LaPorta, and you also need to consider what the Lions like to do. It is a run-first unit with an elite offensive line that likes to ground and pound at its core. Given that offense and Williams’ role within it, ADP 84.7 is a little too rich.
Quentin Johnson: WR80, ADP 149.6
This seems like an easy guy to label as overvalued, but for some reason he is still going in the top 150 in Best Ball drafts. Our rankings don’t have him anywhere close to that.
There are no two ways about it: Johnston was atrocious last year in his rookie season after going in the first round. Among receivers with at least 65 targets, Johnston was third-to-last in yards per route run. He also had drops and didn’t do well on contested catches, so he didn’t do anything particularly well despite having Justin Herbert as his quarterback most of the season.
The Chargers are changing offenses with Jim Harbaugh, and they now project to be way more run heavy. That’s evidenced by drafting Joe Alt at No. 6 overall this year. Now Johnston also seems to be the WR3 on the team behind rookie Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer. In fact, given how Johnston compares to receivers behind him on the depth chart, there’s a chance he won’t start in three-wide sets.
Overall, the systemic and talent downsides here with Johnson are far too great to justify taking him in the top 150. He’s almost a full fade barring massive drops down the board from his ADP.
