Far from any appetizer, the Memorial kicks off two straight weeks of massive golf — including the US Open at Pinehurst. This week everyone on tour is back, including Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. The field is elevated much like the $20 million purse. It may not have the same tag, but this feels like a major — especially with the added element of difficulty at Muirfield. The good news for us is we only need to identify a leader after Round 1, not the actual winner, so let’s find the best option for the Memorial’s first-round leader.
It’s a deeper field with odds to match, so we’ll look at a possible mid-range golfer or two to lead, factoring in some earlier tee times along the way. The weather looks to be fantastic for golf this week in Dublin, Ohio — making it easier to take a broader look at the field. As always, we are trying to beat Scheffler with a price that makes sense. In the case of a first-round leader, taking down the top names on the board isn’t as relevant but shouldn’t be ignored either. There’s zero reason to think any of the Schefflers or Xander Schauffeles won’t be hovering atop near the end of Day 1.
It’s been a rough stretch over the past few tournaments for us, but we go back to our winning process that’s already netted a few winners. We have even more on the OddsShopper Discord. This is not an easy place to play for anyone, primarily due to the unforgiving rough, which might be the worst on tour. Long irons, scrambling and par-5 scoring are all things we want to look at, but don’t be shocked if the winner is around 7 to 8 under par.
The Memorial First Round Leader Picks
Don’t forget our PGA DFS projections, lineup generator, contest simulator and weather splits tool. Want to improve your PGA DFS lineups? Get started with Lineup Generator for just $1 when using promo code ‘BERRYMANLG”. Click here to sign up!
The Keys To The Kingdom
Muirfield is over 7,500 yards long, asking golfers to stay out of the rough. Do not hit it in the rough. This is one of the hardest courses to correct second shots across the entire PGA Tour; nothing will be any easier this week. The bentgrass greens provide their own level of difficulty, but getting there is more important. The greens are fast, greased and slicked up for this week — and landing approach shots won’t be easy on that surface either. Avoiding bogeys on par 4’s might be the one saving grace for anyone looking to lead or win, no matter the day.
Par 5’s seem to be the best avenue for scoring this week. They offer the easiest path for birdies while adding some balance to an already difficult group of par 4’s. Looking at golfers who can get out and routinely score on par 5’s, knowing there’s difference in both length and approach, is an area of significant interest. Like most places, getting to the green can be as valuable as putting. We want to attack guys who attack pins while having the ability to scramble and save par. Scoring in difficult conditions, i.e., this rough, is another checkmark for us.
Memorial First-Round Leader Picks
Memorial First Round Leader Picks: Byeong Hun An (+4000 at BetMGM)
There are few crowd favorites like Byeong Hun An when he comes flying out of the gates. He gets an earlier tee time at 8:20 a.m. ET. That certainly helps his case for a first-round leader, combined with his fantastic metrics compared to the field. Muirfield is a longer-iron course, and Golfers will still need to get off the tee with some punch, so distance is relevant. It’s just combining the two for a better second shot. An is one of the best in the current field at hitting approach shots longer than 175 yards, something he should immediately put to use on the first day.
We want guys who can score consistently on par 5’s. Once again, An fits that mold as one of the best in the current field in overall par-5 scoring average. This is a huge boost on the first day, as these four holes present massive scoring chances. It’s not just these two categories that stand out for An, as we love him to lead after one and finish top 10 in the first round. He’s gaining strokes tee to green and one of the better overall golfers this week in birdies or better and gaining strokes on approach shots.
He’ll be out there early on Thursday, so make sure you keep an eye on An. With a good chance to score early and hold through the first of four par 5’s, An could find himself with an early lead to simply hold over the rest of the round. That would be nice, but we take them any way we get them.
The Memorial Tournament First Round Leader Picks: Davis Thompson (+8000 at BetMGM)
While Carson Young didn’t cash our first-round leader play last week, we did hit a nice ticket on him in the Discord. We take a similar approach to a longer shot this week with Davis Thompson, who just checks a lot of boxes. Let’s start with the lone appearance last year at the Memorial, where Thompson made the cut but struggled to finish 56th. He lost strokes on the green and was atrocious off the tee. The rough eventually caught up. He enters smarter, a little wiser, but still with the same skill set that should appeal to Muirfield.
In fact, his strokes gained off the tee, where he struggled last year, have improved this year to the point where he’s one of the better golfers in the field. The same is true with strokes gained on approach — a vital piece of anyone successfully navigating this course. Gaining on approach shots is where Thompson did excel last year and should duplicate that effort this year. He’s also one of the sharper golfers in this field when it comes to par-5 scoring, again something we want to focus on with so many scoring chances. Given four holes to keep up or separate from the field, having a guy who is consistently knocking in birdies puts us in the right direction. Take him top 10 in the first round as well on BetMGM.
If you need some more tips on how to manage your bankroll, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on the biggest bankroll mistakes players make and how you can avoid them! Check it out HERE.
Stokastic’s PGA Tools & Expert Advice
Still need more PGA DFS advice? The rest of our expert articles are loaded with advice here to help, but even our experts need tools and that’s what a subscription to Stokastic will get you! Use the tools our pros use to win contests, like our PGA DFS projections, lineup generator, contest simulator and weather splits tool.
