Woof, this may be our most controversial Best Ball article yet — there are some running backs in here that the public reeeeeallly likes this year. And we don’t necessarily dislike these guys in our Best Ball Rankings; it’s simply that their value falls well behind their ADP and you are better off waiting for these running backs to drop. With that in mind, here are the four most overvalued Best Ball running backs for the 2024 season.
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Overvalued Best Ball Running Backs for 2024
These ADPs are for Underdog Fantasy. We also have ADP for Drafters and DraftKings in our FREE Best Ball RB rankings, but how much each running back is overvalued depends on which site you are using.
Jahmyr Gibbs: RB5, ADP 12.9
When we’re talking about players being overvalued, that doesn’t mean we’re getting 0% of them in our drafts. For example, I don’t want to have 0% of Gibbs, an explosive second-year back behind the best offensive line in football.
My approach with a lot of these players is to take them when they fall below ADP, and on average you have to draft Gibbs 12th overall. If I’m drafting higher than that and he falls to 15 or 16, that’s when I am scooping Gibbs up. That way I am not completely dead in the water if and when Gibbs has an awesome year or David Montgomery gets hurt.
But I can also benefit if things go according to plan and Gibbs shares the backfield with Montgomery for the full season. Montgomery played a massive role, and he is going to do so again, barring injury.
The offensive line and the Lions’ run-first philosophy work in Gibbs’ favor, but he is also going ahead of players who have better situations like Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley. Gibbs touched the ball 15.5 times per game last year in a split backfield. He did handle some high-value touches, but Montgomery was the guy on the goal line.
It comes down to preference: Would you rather have Gibbs, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Stefon Diggs, or Harrison, Garrett Wilson and Travis Etienne? I personally would rather have the latter, but again — I’m not getting 0% Gibbs, just underweight to the field.
De’Von Achane: RB8, ADP 24.0
This situation is similar to the one with Gibbs. You are betting on efficiency if you’re drafting Achane ahead of ADP, and that’s not guaranteed.
The Dolphins backfield is split with Raheem Mostert, Miami drafted Jaylen Wright in the fourth round and Jeff Wilson is still around, so it’s unlikely Achane will get a full workload this season.
Achane was the best running back in the league last year from an efficiency standpoint: First in yards after contact per attempt, record-breaking 7.8 yards per carry. But the Dolphins are not going to use Achane in a bell cow role no matter what. With Gibbs, there is the chance that Montgomery will get hurt. If Mostert gets hurt, boom — here comes Wright, here comes Wilson.
And this bears out in their props: Achane over/under 724.5 yards, Mostert 699.5 yards; 6.5 touchdowns for Achane, Mostert 7.5. What this tells me (and the sportsbooks) is that we are drafting Achane too early and Mostert too late when their props place them neck and neck.
Again, I will draft Achane when he falls below ADP, but my approach with the Miami backfield is to soak up shares of Mostert.
Tony Pollard: RB34, ADP 98.0
The main reason here is we are below ADP on Pollard but ahead of ADP on his backfield mate Tyjae Spears. Pollard had a woefully inefficient 2023 after a hyper-efficient 2022, partially due to wilting under an increased workload as the lead back in Dallas. He did break 1,000 yards, but he was also only 28th in yards after contact per attempt.
His 18.1 touches per game are almost certainly going to fall this year. Tennessee has a bad offensive line and Will Levis under center, which could mean more targets for running backs. However, this is where Spears excels, as he ran Derrick Henry off the field on third downs because of his receiving ability. That won’t change this year.
Now, Spears is on the smaller side and probably won’t get a full workload, but he is going to eat into Pollard’s usage heavily. This is a split backfield in favor of Spears, not the other way around.
Trey Benson: RB43, ADP 108.3
Arizona’s win total is only 6.5, so it’s tough to bet on two running backs to finish inside the top 100 on one of the bottom-5 teams in the NFL. Could the Cardinals finish above that total? Yes, but they are just as likely to finish below that, which does not look great for their offense.
James Conner is also still in this backfield, and he had possibly the best season of his career in 2023 in a terrible situation. He was third in forced missed tackles, second in yards after contact per attempt and second in efficiency.
The Cardinals have a bad offensive line, yet for some reason people are anointing Benson to usurp Conner. Benson is guaranteed nothing as a third-round rookie, he never carried more than 166 times in college and he suffered a severe injury.
Benson is explosive, something Conner lacks, but last year Conner was as productive as some of the most “explosive” backs in the league. He’s also played at least 13 games every season but one and also isn’t even 30 yet. If he stays healthy, Conner will not give up a major workload to Benson.
