Here we go as Sleeper is giving us a chance to use a free pick all week! Our focus tonight is on the MLB diamond, but we can attach an automatic play in the NBA Finals, which start on June 6. For now, we look at the current landscape across baseball finding a couple of edges on Sleeper. Be it a projected high-scoring affair in Coors Field or possible letdown for a team playing late last night, we have you covered. Here are today’s top MLB Sleeper predictions with a little help from our pick’em tools!
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Sleeper Fantasy Predictions Today — MLB Slate
Pick on Sale: Kyrie Irving M/L Than 0.5 Points
This pick on sale will be available until Thursday, but we still recommend playing the bottom two picks for an entry.
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MacKenzie Gore M/L Than 5.5 Strikeouts
For the most part this season, MacKenzie Gore has trended towards more than 5.5 strikeouts. He comes off a dominant 10-strikeout performance against the Atlanta Braves and now gets the New York Mets in Washington D.C. Gore enters with a 29% strikeout rate, earned off some strong outings this year. Not all have hit above this total, as he’s finished less than 5.5 strikeouts in four of 11 starts. The challenge is far more in picking the spots where Gore will struggle, as opposed to leaning on the probability he keeps mowing down batters.
Enter the Mets. While both teams are off to miserable starts, the Mets aren’t bleeding out strikeouts. The massive strikeout concerns lie in Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Martinez; however, both are hitting the ball and remain a threat at the plate. Taking less than 5.5 strikeouts for Gore means he’s not going to be cruising through this lineup or have the stretch to dominate two guys to the tune of six combined strikeouts. We like the Mets to stick around, forcing Gore to pitch more to contact than simply hacking away.
Sleeper Prediction: MacKenzie Gore Less Than 4.5 Strikeouts
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Grayson Rodriguez M/L Than 5.5 Strikeouts
We are taking a similar approach with a pitcher who is fine in the strikeout department but facing a difficult matchup, in this case on the road. Baltimore heads north to face division foe Toronto, and Grayson Rodriguez is charged with racking up six-plus strikeouts to hit the more option. While Rodriguez has been dealing this year — highlighted by 27.9% strikeout rate — we’ve seen some other areas struggle or regress. Balls are coming off the barrel at a near-uncomfortable 42.5% hard-hit rate, combined with a 9.3% walk rate. These are areas of concern depending on circumstance and matchup, two things working against Rodriguez in tonight’s affair.
Toronto isn’t loaded with strikeouts, much like the above Mets. In fact, it’s even harder for Rodriguez against a stingy lineup when it comes to giving up strikeouts. The Blue Jays have at least five batters with a strikeout rate of 17.4% or less — with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being the 17.4-percenter. Add the road start for Rodriguez, and it becomes even harder for him to clear the above total. The pick’em tool offers a slight +EV edge; as the implied -106 odds for less than 4.5 strikeouts beat the -108 true odds. Any edge is still +EV!
Sleeper Prediction: Grayson Rodriguez Less Than 5.5 Strikeouts
