It is a lighter slate on this Monday night in baseball, but not without some drama and plenty of value. We will benefit from our pick’em tool in finding that value on Sleeper as we look to two of the later games for action. Both the Giants and Astros played yesterday; both lost and will reconvene in San Francisco. Elsewhere, the Padres will look to avoid any letdown as the lowly Athletics stroll into town, especially with Dylan Cease on the hill. Here are the top MLB Sleeper predictions of the night — picks like Fernando Tatis Jr.!
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Sleeper Fantasy Predictions Today — MLB Slate
Kyle Harrison M/L Than 4.5 Strikeouts
The Giants were denied a sweep in Texas, and they return home to host Spencer Arrighetti and the Houston Astros. It’s a rough matchup for Kyle Harrison on the other side, as he’s not pitching great this year. While his 21.2% strikeout rate isn’t terrible, it’s not great and the lone metric he can truly rely on in this matchup. With a .341 xwOBA and .263 xBA, it’s fair to ask just how long Harrison will be in this game, especially against a team that can generate pressure at the plate. Harrison isn’t pitching to contact well either; the balls are getting crushed off the barrels and could result in a quick yank.
The Astros also don’t strike out much. The majority of their everyday players are working counts and limiting strikeouts at the plate. That’s a big area of success for the Astros, carrying specifically into this game against a struggling pitcher who can’t rely on strikeouts. Harrison has cleared this number in three straight games despite being knocked around more often than not. That trend should continue, where his strikeouts are above the metrics we are currently seeing. That is bound to regress.
Sleeper Prediction: Kyle Harrison Less than 4.5 Strikeouts
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Fernando Tatis Jr. M/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
The Padres are slowly watching the Dodgers build an insurmountable lead out west. Neither team is playing great over their last 10, but the Padres can’t take advantage. It’s a sleepy matchup for San Diego as they welcome in Oakland — looking to avoid a third straight loss. It’s a typical season of expected metrics from Dylan Cease over in San Diego, but maybe not the same for Joey Estes in Oakland. He will match up against Fernando Tatis Jr. and the rest of the Padres lineup.
Estes boasts an impressive .282 xwOBA and .220 xBA — along with a 23.4% strikeout to 5.6% walk ratio. He’s at least equipped to battle. Tatis has impeccable metrics this year; as expected, he’s crushing the ball with a .401 xwOBA to go with it. He’s also gone over this number in seven straight games, swapping out home runs for doubles and just gaining more than 1.5 total bases. He’s a machine, no doubt, but he’s just getting by even with massive numbers behind his swing. Estes and the letdown of the A’s might just be enough to squeeze by and keep him with a single or hitless on the night.
Sleeper Prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. LESS than 1.5 Total Bases
