Things were so bad last night in the NBA that our editor “suggested” we pivot to baseball. It’s hard to argue with the only win coming with our free pick, but we are back with a nice 4.5x winner on Sleeper. There are a couple of solid spots with the mid-week portion of the MLB schedule, including some dominant pitching matchups and strong performances at the plate to match. Let’s look at the top MLB Sleeper predictions as we build another winner!
Looking for more MLB pick’em advice? Check out the rest of our MLB articles or our MLB pick’em tools. Use code SHANDER for a $100 dollar deposit match instantly and tonight’s pick on sale — Corbin Burnes more than 0.5 strikeouts.
Sleeper Fantasy Predictions Today — MLB Slate
Pick on Sale: Corbin Burnes M/L Than 0.5 Strikeouts
This is our pick on sale for tonight’s action, but we still recommend playing the bottom two picks for an entry.
Looking for more MLB pick’em advice? Check out the rest of our MLB articles or our MLB pick’em tools. New to Sleeper Fantasy? Get your first deposit matched up to $100!
Shota Imanaga M/L Than 6.5 Strikeouts
Let’s start with the most unpopular yet most profitable play on the board. Nobody wants to fade Shota Imanaga given the start of his career, and it is hard to blame that mentality. The Cubs are on the road taking on the Brewers, who don’t crush lefties but still find a way to hit them — just not as well as righties. While seven strikeouts may not seem like a tall task for Imanaga, tonight’s road start against a team not offering a ton of strikeouts opens the door. He’s probably going to hang three strikeouts alone on Jake Bauers, and it still won’t be enough to hit seven. It’s hard to look at Imanaga’s current numbers and rush to the window to take LESS than 6.5 strikeouts, but that’s how markets work. We find a spot that becomes more advantageous because the other side is so popular.
That’s best defined through the MLB pick’em tool, identifying a 2.2% EV edge. The implied odds of -109 for this play at Sleeper are simply better than the -114 true odds. Even a slight edge like this can build profit over time, establishing a bank roll in the process. Imanaga is a popular name that people will rush to tail, especially in the strikeout market with a 27.8% strikeout rate. There’s enough room in the market to justify the other side.
Sleeper Prediction: Shota Imanaga LESS Than 6.5 Strikeouts
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Jose Ramirez M/L Than 0.5 RBI
We get another small break here thanks to our MLB pick’em tool, but let’s look at Ramirez and his recent activity at the plate. First, he’s registered an RBI in seven straight games, including five of them with at least two. That’s one heck of a scoring streak for one of the better hitters on the Guardians. We know Cleveland is in Colorado, so add the atmosphere as another factor in tonight’s game. Before this run, we’ve seen Ramirez in more of a streaky spot where the RBIs don’t come as often but still in bunches. That’s the regression we expect tonight at Coors Field even against a weaker arm in Ty Blach and his 10% strikeout rate.
Despite making consistent contact, Ramirez isn’t tearing the cover off, with a hard-hit rate of just 38.5% on the year. The MLB pick’em tool identifies a 1.4% edge as we once again beat the true odds. The implied -106 odds on Sleeper are better than the -109 market price. Just identifying this smaller edge is a step up on playing -EV legs, regardless of if it’s building a parlay on a book or an entry at Sleeper.
Sleeper Prediction: Jose Ramirez LESS Than 0.5 RBI
