Monday Night Football has a 43.0 projected total, with the Kansas City Chiefs favored by nearly two field goals as they welcome the 2-2 New Orleans Saints into Arrowhead Stadium. This total and close matchup add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this week’s NFL DFS picks breakdown, we’re taking a deep dive into the Saints-Chiefs Monday Night Football clash for Week 5, highlighting key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you build winning lineups.
Saints-Chiefs DFS Picks: Monday Night Football Week 5 NFL DFS
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With complete coverage of Monday night’s Saints-Chiefs Showdown, let’s jump into the top plays and strategies for this slate.
Saints-Chiefs DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5: Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,400
FanDuel: $17,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.55
FanDuel: 18.44
Pop quiz: How many 1,000-yard rushing campaigns has Alvin Kamara had through his first seven seasons? Yup, the answer is zero; he was close in 2020 with 187 carries for 932 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns in 15 games.
In his career, he has averaged 59 rushing and 41.8 receiving yards for a strong 100.8 combined yards from scrimmage.
The veteran was limited in practice early in the week with sore ribs and a hip issue, but he was a full participant on Saturday and the team will be without Taysom Hill, who has his own rib injury.
Hill also missed Week 3, and while he is a tight end, he has only three targets this season, doing most of his work as a ball-carrier by turning 14 totes into 77 yards and three touchdowns. Eliminating him as a red zone threat should be a boost to Kamara. Adam Prentice will be on the field for around one-third of the snaps, but he is more of a blocker, with only one target this season and seven total for his career. He has six career carries but none in 2024.
Jamaal Williams, of course, could replace Hill as a red zone threat, but after his magical 2022 season where he had 17 rushing touchdowns, Williams has only two in the 17 subsequent games. The Stokastic NFL stat projections have him for 4.53 carries and 17.48 yards, accompanied by 1.42 targets, 1.13 receptions and just over 7 yards. There is around a 15% probability that the venerable veteran will reach pay dirt in some form or fashion, compared to the 64% probability for Kamara to take one to the house.
No opposing running back has posted more than 46 yards against Kansas City this season, and Derrick Henry set that highwater mark back in the opener. The list includes Zack Moss (34 yards), Chase Brown (31 yards), Bijan Robinson (32 yards), Tyler Allgeier (32 yards), J.K. Dobbins (32 yards) and Gus Edwards (19 yards)
Finally, it is key to know that Kendre Miller has been designated to return from the injured reserve tonight. He missed a lot of training camp and, of course, the first month of the season with a hamstring issue. He practiced in full on Friday and Saturday, so he could slot in for the handful of carries earmarked for Hill. Miller was a third-round selection in the 2023 Draft, though the former TCU back was not particularly impressive in his limited action. There have been stories out of his training camps and practices that he has flashed some upside, but it has not yet manifested in games.
New Orleans Saints Positional Preview
Quarterback | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Derek Carr continues chugging along, never seeming like much of a fantasy contributor but typically flirting with 4,000 aerial yards and two dozen touchdowns every season. The 11-year veteran has a rushing touchdown this season and 22 yards on eight attempts. For his career, he averages around 6 yards per game, but that Week 2 score is his only rushing touchdown in his last 37 games. Some would say that makes sense, as he has played with capable red zone running backs for most of his career. With seven touchdowns in 162 games, it just really has never been part of the package.
Wrapping things up, Carr has multi-touchdown passing efforts in 79 of his 163 (48.4%) of his games, which is impressive. Kansas City held Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert to one passing touchdown each, with Joe Burrow putting a pair into the end zone. Carr is going to have his work cut out for him on Monday Night Football, but do not underestimate him.
Wide Receiver | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
No opposing wideout has crossed over the 67-yard receiving mark against the Chiefs this season. That is actually pretty impressive, though equally as impressive is the Saints leading the league with 31.8 points per game through the first four weeks. Kansas City has allowed just 18.0 points per game this year, keeping most opposing offenses under their respective averages.
Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave are one and two on the target list, with 25 and 24. The rest of the receivers have seven combined opportunities, and Mason Tipton has corralled five of those.
Despite a similar snap share (30% range), veteran Cedrick Wilson Jr. has only one target. Fifth-round rookie Bub Means has played in three of the four games, with six offensive plays in each.
To reiterate, only three targets have been earmarked for Hill this season, so expect those to melt across the rest of the roster. This is a top-heavy crew, but we know that anything goes in the single-game format with a long enough time horizon.
Wilson has been backing up Shaheed as the punt return man, but as the NFL veteran, he probably has the best “contingent” value should something befall the lead options. Tipton played for Yale, earning All-Ivy honors in his senior season, but he is a wild card at best. And then there is Means, who spent his final two seasons at Pitt after starting at Tennessee then had a two-year stopover at Louisiana Tech.
Tight End | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Traditional tight ends Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau each have six targets on the season, with the former seeing three in Weeks 1 and 4, while the latter had four in the opener and then two in Week 3. Moreau has 55 more snaps than Johnson, but despite spending his whole career with Carr — on the Raiders and then joining him last year in New Orleans — he has only 31 total targets as a Saint. Each player had a Week 1 score, though both have been fantasy disappointments since.
Kicker | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Blake Grupe has converted on all eight of his field goal attempts this season, including both from 50-plus yards. Last year as a rookie, he had an acceptable 81.1% conversion rate on 37 attempts, with three of his seven misses coming outside of 50 yards. The former UDFA out of Notre Dame has yet to miss a point after touchdown, making all 53 of his opportunities.
Defense | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
New Orleans is averaging a trio of sacks per tilt and has a healthy eight takeaways. Kansas City typically limits sacks and turnovers, but the Chiefs have had a rough go of it this season.
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Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $16,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.60
FanDuel: 18.43
Things are looking dire for the Chiefs as they look to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. Kansas City is 4-0 but has now lost Isaiah Pacheco, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and most recently Rashee Rice. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is eligible to return from the injured reserve, but he is not expected to be activated for Monday Night Football.
So that means once again Patrick Mahomes is going to have to do the heavy lifting with limited options against a competent opponent.
Dak Prescott has the lone passing touchdown against the Saints this season. It is not a surprise that Bryce Young was horrible; however, Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins had 549 combined passing yards with no tuddies. This has been a rough season already for Mahomes, who has some of his worst numbers across the board. That is saying something, with the starkest number being just 226.0 passing yards per game, which is SIGNIFICANTLY below his 293.3 career yards per game — the best in NFL history.
The Wizard is going to have to conjure up some magic on his own in this game, though he still has a potential assistant or two that could aid in pulling off the bigger tricks.
New Orleans Saints Positional Preview
Running Back | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
What’s old is new again, with Kareem Hunt being signed by the Chiefs and immediately taking the lead back role with 69 rushing yards on 14 carries, bringing in two of his three targets for a pair of receptions and 16 yards. Hunt last played for Kansas City in 2018, ending up in Cleveland for the last five years. He is now 29 years old and was not on any practice squad prior to returning to KC. New Orleans has been average against the run but stout in the red zone, ceding only two touchdowns on the season.
Hunt ended up with 17 opportunities, despite playing on just 28 plays against the Chargers in Los Angeles. Tonight he should end up on around just over half the snaps and could push 20 combined totes and targets. Samaje Perine is a capable contributor in all facets of the game, but he did not join the Chiefs until the end of the preseason. Effectively, he and Hunt have about the same experience with the current roster, the exceptions being Mahomes and, of course, head coach Andy Reid.
Oddly, Perine did not have any targets last week, but he did get five carries for 14 yards and a touchdown. He is likely to get about half of the opportunities as Hunt, though the thought would be he may be more involved in the passing game, at least the protection part. Perine did have more routes run than Hunt; it was just variance that led to no looks from Mahomes. Reid could get more conservative if the game is tight and go with Perine, who at least had a training camp and has a month with the current roster.
Rookie Carson Steele dropped from 46 offensive plays in Week 3 to just 11 in Los Angeles last weekend. He should get a handful of touches, though pretty much anything high leverage is likely to go to one of the veterans. Obligatory reminder of Derrick Gore as one of the primetime tricks Andy Reid has unveiled over the years out of nowhere, giving the rest of the league something to think about.
Wide Receiver | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Rice was on the field for only four plays before leaving the game last week. Justin Watson assumed most of the vacated snaps, seeing an increase of a baker’s dozen from the preceding three games to a season-high 43. Mecole Hardman also was back in the picture, though his trajectory of zero, one, three and 10 offensive plays over the first month still leaves a lot to be desired. This duo has history with Mahomes, and both are better than Skyy “Butterfingers” Moore and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Rookie Xavier Worthy is going to be the literal X-Factor. He is the NFL combine record holder with a 4.21 40-yard dash, besting former University of Washington speedster John Ross, who posted a 4.22 time back in 2017. Routes and hands are still a work in progress for Worthy, as he has three, four, four and four targets on the season, ranking third on the team behind Rice and Taylor Swift’s beau. The uncertainty with the Chiefs skill position players makes things interesting, with gamers being asked to rely more on their own risk tolerance than what would be found in a typical single-game contest.
Tight End | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Travis Kelce and coach Reid were hoping that they would be able to take things easier with regards to the workload for the future Hall of Fame tight end, who celebrated his 35th birthday on Saturday. Kelce has received Pro Bowl honors each of the last nine years while also making First-Team All-Pro four times and the Second-Team three times during this period. The elder statesman missed the opener last year then rested for Week 18, falling 16 yards shy of the 1,000 milestone, ending his streak at seven seasons.
Though he was on the field a boatload for the first three games, Kelce had four, three and five targets. He saw nine last weekend, bringing in seven for 89 yards — essentially matching the production of his first fortnight. The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Kelce with 7.23 targets, 5.61 catches, 59.9 yards and just above a coinflip of a chance to score a touchdown.
While Kelce saw an uptick in his play participation over Week 3, Noah Gray was right in line with just over a 50% snap share. He is the in-line blocking tight end with Kelce being split out wide or in the slot for the vast majority of his on-field action, but Gray is still a capable pass-catcher while also looking like the heir apparent with his recent contract upgrade. The $7,000 salary cap hit on FanDuel is palatable, though the $2,600 tag on DraftKings is far more appealing.
Gray should get three or four looks, with a couple more attainable if the team runs more two-tight end sets, which would be reasonable to get its best pass-catchers on the field.
Kicker | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Harrison Butker and his giant contract have been performing well this season, missing one field goal and one extra point, with nine attempts in each category. The lone miss was from 50-plus, and coach Reid is not afraid of taking points, with Butker having led the NFL in field goal attempts in two of his seven full seasons.
Defense | Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Kansas City has only one interception and two fumble recoveries, while New Orleans has a scant three interceptions and two fumbles lost. Carr has been sacked only four times this season, with the Chiefs collecting just two sacks per performance.
Saints-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5: Rankings
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Here is how the Single-Lineup Simulator is evaluating a Saints-Chiefs Week 5 MNF DraftKings lineup based on some of the picks touted here. If you like what you see, sign up for a Lite, Core or Max NFL package and start seeing how your lineup ROI compares!
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Saints-Chiefs
- Alvin Kamara: Captain, my Captain.
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
- Travis Kelce: The goal was not to do this, yet here we are, so we need to just shake it off.
- Derek Carr: Nice mix of floor and a dash of upside, though not of the soul-crushing variety.
- Harrison Butker: Things are pretty top-heavy tonight; we need the salary relief, though with fantasy potential that has a high probability of coming to fruition.
- Justin Watson: Already in the Mahomes circle of trust off the field, hopefully this radius of inclusion expands.
- Xavier Worthy: Your Ol’ Pal had a buddy in college who was the lead singer of a local band called Nowhere Fast — almost feels like the perfect description for the rookie, with regards to his fantasy production.
- Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed: 1) Yes, I like this duo more than some of the others above them, but salary is a thing and 2) let personal preference be your guide.
- Kareem Hunt: Getting another shot at the brass ring, albeit while older and hopefully wiser.
- Noah Gray: On the field a fair amount and the heir apparent to Kelce, only with nowhere near the Hall of Fame credentials.
Secondary Options
- Blake Grupe: Would be better off if this game were in the Superdome.
- Samaje Perine: Salary indicative of double-digit opportunities; Stokastic projections have him for 5.8 carries, 2.9 targets and just shy of 44 combined yards. The journeyman does have a 25% likelihood of scoring a touchdown, but this dicey floor is scary.
- Kansas City D/ST: Carr is above average at preventing sacks and limiting turnovers. Even one of the best homefield advantage venues can only elevate the defense so much.
- New Orleans D/ST: Would move up two slots if this game were in NOLA.
- Mecole Hardman: Very much in play on DraftKings ($1,200) in the hopes he gets back into the offensive pecking order. The half-PPR format on FanDuel ($6,000) brings into consideration for those crafting more than a dozen lineups. Main kick returner for Kansas City.
Lottery Tickets
- Carson Steele: The addition of Hunt slides the rookie into the lotto section. He was ranked seventh for Week 3 Sunday Night Football. The NFL really does stand for Not For Long. Mop-up duty is probably his, though that is not a probable outcome for this matchup.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: Could easily flip spots with Hardman; let personal preference by your guide.
- Juwan Johnson: Seems to be the preferred target, but Moreau is on the field for significantly more snaps.
- Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller: Miller in the mix with a 75% discount to Williams on DraftKings. Roll with the veteran on FanDuel and hope for a fortuitous touchdown.
- Foster Moreau: He is on the field a ton, though did not take advantage of Johnson’s foot injury to truly move ahead of his counterpart. Just 31 targets in 19 games in New Orleans, despite being the “starter” in 14 of them.
- Skyy Moore and Cedrick Wilson Jr.: On opposite teams but equally buried in the game plans.
- Dallin Holker and Jared Wiley: TE3s anyone?
- Mason Tipton and Bub Means: Sadly, no DFS points are awarded for fun names.
- Jody Fortson, Adam Prentice: The rest.
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