On to Detroit. The Rocket Mortgage Classic is far from a star-studded event; none of the top 20 golfers are in this event, but that shouldn’t mean we skip a week of betting. There are plenty of familiar names — some who competed just last week atop the leaderboard — and solid value thanks to a weaker field. The course itself isn’t surprising anyone; it’s going to play as one of the easier courses we see all season.
This is far from an elevated event in terms of the purse and the course. Any mid to high handicap that’s played from their tees with a significantly better golfer has seen the driver-wedge script. Expect a lot of that this week and into the weekend, as Detroit Golf Club won’t provide many obstacles. Even their obstacles aren’t truly in the way. Look at the tree-lined fairways that are mostly too wide for those to come into play — at least for most accurate drivers.
There is no Scottie Scheffler this week, so as we’ve noted previously, someone else gets a shot to win this thing. We will apply the necessary metrics required to win in coming out strong for a Rocket Mortgage Classic first-round leader. The odds won’t shift much, so we will try to pinpoint distance and putting that’s necessary to distance from the field. Since we are down a bunch of big names, the lack of true pressure opens a pathway to decent mid-range value.
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Rocket Mortgage Classic First Round Leader Picks
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The Keys To The Kingdom
It’s no wonder most of the top-heavy part of the tour took off this week, with little money to be made and little challenge on the course. There is no need to burn out sweating putts on a Sunday; save that for the Scottish and Open Championships. Here’s what we know from just a handful of years at Detroit: You can bomb the ball and rarely be penalized off the tee. Putting comes from second shots, so this week will come down to whoever puts themselves in the best position to score on the greens. We’ve put an extra emphasis on gaining strokes on approach shots more than putting, although — as noted below — being able to putt on this course is a major benefit.
The course is 7,370 yards but plays significantly shorter, primarily because of the wide-open fairways. Again, a Donald Ross course will always demand consistent putting, but we also see getting to the greens as an effective weapon. They slope back to front, which allows players to go long and create spin — much easier than landing something on a downward slope, as we just saw at Pinehurst. We want to target guys who can snipe second shots, mostly with wedges, and are consistent putters over time. One thing Detroit will not do is allow someone struggling on days 1 or 2 to all of a sudden figure out the flat stick.
Rocket Mortgage Classic First-Round Leader Picks
Rocket Mortgage Classic First Round Leader Picks: Maverick McNealy (+5000 at DraftKings)
Here we go, right down the path we told ourselves we would never travel again. It sounds like the lyrics of an awful ballad, but such is life on tour with these smaller events and lesser fields. Maverick McNealy is no lesser golfer by any means; he’s just struggled to come back from an injury last year. He’s improved and easy to miss when the bigger names start filing in for these larger events. The fact is, McNealy is on a non-cut streak of 12 straight events, with four top-15s over that stretch. He’s a massive fit for this course and has a fantastic history combining Detroit and similar courses.
He’s burned us before, and we are on a little cool streak right now. This is not a spite bet, before you even go down that road. McNealy is able to take advantage of consistent putting over time on a course that rewards wedge and putting more than anything. He already has distance down and has little to worry about with accuracy off the tee. Making cuts means he’s playing good golf; we like him to play great golf on Thursday.
Rocket Mortgage Classic First Round Leader Picks: Matt Wallace (+7500 at FanDuel)
Detroit Golf Club may not fit anyone better in the field — at least ahead of this event — than Matt Wallace. He just pops in so many crucial areas that it’s impossible to ignore us getting him at 75-1. Wallace was an unmitigated disaster here last year, finishing 78th, but worse — losing 1.5 strokes off the tee. It is almost deliberate to lose strokes like that on a course with little in the way of the tee box. Before that, he was 10th and 12th. Wallace knows this course and, even with the bump last year, holds one of the better histories in the field.
Wallace is covered in the strokes gained on approach category, once again one of the strongest in the field in that area. Even last year, he barely lost on approach shots, -0.08 total over the event. We want someone who can still pound the ball and cover enough ground on par 5s to score. Wallace can do it. Once again, he stands tall to the field when looking at those metrics specific to winning at Detroit. These odds are better reflected with some bigger names atop the betting board; we can secure a 75-1 ticket on FanDuel knowing it’s down to at least 60-1 elsewhere.
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