Sunday Night Football gets a grudge match between two teams that traded quarterbacks three years ago and are facing off for the first time. Former favorite son Matthew Stafford is leading the Los Angeles Rams back into his old stomping grounds to face Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions to see who gets one step closer to the Super Bowl. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Rams-Lions DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Rams-Lions DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Rams-Lions DFS Picks
Los Angeles Rams: 24.25 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Matthew Stafford as the seventh-best Wild Card Weekend signal-caller on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The fun storyline here, of course, is that the Los Angeles Rams acquired Stafford from the Lions, back in March 2021, sending two first-round and one third-round pick along with Jared Goff to Detroit. This, of course, worked out well for Los Angeles, who ended up winning the Super Bowl later that year.
In a funny twist, however, it also worked out for the Lions, who, under first time general manager Brad Holmes and new head coach Dan Campbell, used those picks to begin a rebuilding process while also helping Goff rediscover some of the skills that made him the first selection of the 2016 NFL Draft.
While this is the first time these teams have squared off in the postseason after the trade, Goff and the Lions did take on the Rams in Los Angeles, suffering a 28-19 loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champions. Of course, there is nothing to infer from that game, which was a lifetime ago in NFL terms.
Last year was a rough one for Stafford as injuries hampered his effectiveness and also limited him to just nine games and had him pondering retirement. Like with most NFL players, that was a fleeting thought, and he came back this season to earn his second career Pro Bowl nomination.
Detroit has the third-best rushing DVOA but is 16th against the pass, which bodes well for Stafford’s fantasy upside. Keep in mind his low median fantasy projection when compared to the other field generals this week is a reflection of adding nothing with his legs. Stafford is rushing for just 4.3 yards per game this season, with just one rushing touchdown in his last 97 regular season games.
The Rams have excellent players across every key skill position, getting bonanza bonus seasons from most of their youngsters, with the veterans rounding into form down the stretch. Over the last three weeks, the Detroit was shredded twice by Nick Mullens (411/2/4 and 396/2/2) and once by Dak Prescott (345/2/1). Cornerback Jerry Jacobs and linebacker James Houston are out, but the rest of the back seven is available.
Running Back
Kyren Williams has had a phenomenal sophomore campaign, rushing for 1,144 yards and leading the league with 95.3 ground yards per game. He earned his first Pro Bowl nomination while also being named to the All-NFL Second Team. This was all DESPITE missing five games in the middle of the season.
Since returning from injury, he has rushed for at least 16 attempts and 87 yards in each game, averaging 21.8 totes for 114.7 yards and six touchdowns, adding another 19 catches for 101 yards and two more scores through the air. The Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, which in turn makes it understandable that they have been hemorrhaging yards through the air as teams frantically try to keep pace with the Detroit offense.
Ronnie Rivers appears to have wrested away the RB2 role from Royce Freeman, though both will likely be active tonight. The Sean McVay offense is designed for the short passes to go to the wideouts, so even though this trio is each adequate in the passing game, only four targets per game are going to the backfield.
Wide Receivers
Injuries took out veteran Cooper Kupp for the first four games this season, but that allowed third-year man Tutu Atwell to prove he was worthy of being a regular contributor, averaging just shy of nine targets per game during this stretch and recording 22 receptions, 270 yards and a score, which is not bad for a gadget guy. Of course, this was entirely overshadowed by rookie Puka Nacua, who shattered even the most optimistic expectations of him with a wild 52 targets, 39 receptions, 501 yards and a touchdown.
Once Kupp was healthy, he and Nacua were the one-two punch, with a wild surprise in Demarcus Robinson. The NFL nomad did not see his first target until Week 9, but he put together a four-game touchdown streak between Weeks 12 and 15, with a 10-target game in Week 16. This moved him into the starting lineup over Atwell in Week 15, which was pretty much the end of the former second-rounder’s offensive action.
Between Week 14 and 17, Kupp had 36 targets, Nacua 35, Robinson 29 and Atwell one farewell look in Week 14 before being in the starting lineup in the Week 18 “rest” game.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee had an up-and-down season, dealing with some nagging injuries and other matters. On a positive note, he had 15 targets in the three games prior to last Sunday and is back at full health. Davis Allen has been the TE2 most of the season, but his 11 targets compared to the 70 for Higbee tell us all we need to know. Brycen Hopkins is the TE3, but he has been on the field for more than five offensive plays only once in his last 10 games with anything on the line.
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles has just 41 sacks, which were a little below average but still in the bottom third of the league. Detroit ceded just 31 sacks, which were the fifth fewest this season. On the turnover front, the Rams had just 15 takeaways, which were better than only the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers. Goff had a 2.0% interception rate that was in line with his career average but higher than his 1.2% rate last year during his third Pro Bowl campaign.
Detroit Lions: 27.25 Points
Quarterback
Goff had another strong season, building on last year and his 30 touchdowns were the fourth most in the league, while his 269.1 passing yards per game were the third most among quarterbacks with at least 10 appearances. Los Angeles has the No. 22 passing and No. 20 rushing DVOA, so Detroit should be able to move the ball tonight. The key to Goff having success is being indoors and not having to deal with a fierce pass rush.
Defensive lineman Aaron Donald was named an All-Pro for the ninth time in 10 seasons, and while he is deserving, his eight sacks in 16 games were his fewest since his third season in the league. Half a sack per game is still incredibly impressive, particularly for a 32-year-old lineman who is double-teamed most plays, but he is not operating at the same level he was in his three Defensive Player of the Year seasons. Safety Jordan Fuller (ankle) is questionable after not practicing this week, while linebacker Troy Reeder (knee) and lineman Bobby Brown III (illness) are questionable.
The Rams had challenges down the stretch, skipping last week, with Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett and Derek Carr each having multi-touchdown games against them.
Running Back
The Detroit offensive line has been a strength all season, and it has propelled rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (5.2 yards per carry) and veteran David Montgomery (4.8) to tremendous efficiency. Even though the Los Angeles defense is in the bottom third of the league against the run, only Christian McCaffrey (116), Aaron Jones (70), Zack Moss (70) and D’Andre Swift (70) have run for more than 65 yards, with Jones the only running back to top that threshold since Week 5.
Montgomery had 13 rushing touchdowns and 1,015 yards in just 14 games, while Gibbs just missed the 1,000 milestone with 945 and 10 scores in 15 games. The rookie also saw 71 targets, bringing in 52 for 316 yards and another touchdown. This one-two punch is pretty much the envy of every other team in the league.
Craig Reynolds will be the RB3, though he is unlikely to see the field more than a play or two unless there is mop-up duty or something befalls one of the lead backs.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown was fourth in the league with 94.7 receiving yards per game and third with his 1,515 yards on the season. He was top 5 in pretty much every other category. In an odd twist, the third-year receiver was not nominated for the Pro Bowl, but he was named as an All-Pro, which is the higher honor. He has proven successful on all three levels of the field and will command double-teams or schemed coverage all game.
Kalif Raymond is out, so that means Josh Reynolds will continue to be the steady WR2 and key run-blocker while Jameson Williams works in for some of the WR2 snaps and serves as the WR3, seeing the field for around 60% of the snaps. Donovan Peoples-Jones was brought aboard at the trade deadline, and he should get a dozen or so snaps spelling the rest of the wide-outs.
Tight End and Fullback
Sam LaPorta (knee) left Week 18; yes, he was on the field in Week 18, but he expects to play tonight after getting in a full practice on Friday. He has had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history for tight ends, with a record 86 receptions, though his 889 yards and 10 touchdowns in 17 games still does not hold a candle to the 1,076 yards and 12 scores posted by Mike Ditka back in 1961, when running the ball was the entire purpose of the league and the season was just 14 games.
Brock Wright missed the last three games with a hip issue, but he was a full participant in practice all week and he is a viable discount dandy on both DraftKings ($2,000) and FanDuel ($6,500).
Defense/Special Teams
Detroit had a mediocre 23 takeaways, while Los Angeles was relatively careful with the ball, suffering only 18 turnovers. The Lions defense had 41 sacks, which lands them with a similar ranking to the Los Angeles defense, though the quick passing offense of the Rams limited opposing defenses to just two sacks per game.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Rams-Lions DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Rams-Lions
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: All-Pro but not in the Pro Bowl, so odd.
- Kyren Williams: Consolidated backfield gives him the edge over his Detroit counterparts.
- Cooper Kupp: Healthy and with other players taking some of defensive the spotlight off him, plus a discount when compared to Nacua of 8% on DraftKings and 22% on FanDuel.
- Jared Goff: The ultimate vengeance opportunity.
- Puka Nacua: Rookie season was one of the best ever, particularly from a fifth-rounder.
- Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery: The rookie is a grand less on FanDuel compared to Monty, but the script is flipped on DraftKings with a $2,000 premium.
- Matthew Stafford: Margins are slim, and for what it is worth, he has a better median fantasy projection that both Detroit running backs across the board.
- Demarcus Robinson: Even if we still think this is a mirage, that $5,400 on DraftKings is darn appealing!
- Sam LaPorta: Salary and slight concerns about the knee have him appropriately slotted here; still a core play.
- Josh Reynolds: Not sexy but will be on the field a ton as the best blocking wideout, and he has been in the system far longer than Williams.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Rams-Lions
- Jameson Williams: Barely beat out by Reynolds but still ahead of the kicker grab bag.
- Michael Badgley: The Money Badger was beaten out by fellow NFL nomad Riley Patterson, who ultimately kicked himself out of the job a month ago. But hey, he did nail both his extra-points yesterday for the Browns, who claimed him off waivers. Badgley gets the slight edge over Maher since he actually kicked in this stadium last year.
- Brett Maher: The 34-year-old lost his job for half of the season to Lucas Havrisik, and when the rookie was cut, the team considered turning to 39-year-old Mason Crosby, who was out of the league this season.
- Tyler Higbee: Game-time decision with a shoulder issue; coach Sean McVay is never one to tip his hand; there is a risk of Higbee only being a decoy tonight.
- Detroit D/ST: Homefield advantage, not a particularly fierce pass rush, however.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Rams-Lions
- Davis Allen: If Higbee sits, move Allen up to his slot. DraftKings pre-emptively increased his salary to $4,400. If the suspicion is that Higbee is somewhat limited, this is the right ranking for his recently elevated salary.
- Los Angeles D/ST: If coach Dan Campbell plays his cards right, he should limit the fantasy production of the Rams.
- Brock Wright: Live for a couple of targets; best of the salary savers.
- Ronnie Rivers: Unlikely to get any high-leverage touches but seems to be the RB2, so could get a handful of opportunities between the 20s in relief of Williams.
- Anthony Firkser: Make sure he is active but in play at the $200 minimum salary on DraftKings, even if he gets one target for no production. Fellow tight end James Mitchell was placed on injured reserve yesterday with a hand issue. If LaPorta is a no-go, Firkser is a CORE PLAY on DraftKings.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones: Hard to do much with a dozen snaps and only a target or two. Could end up returning punts with Raymond out, having served in that capacity with the Browns for the last three and a half seasons.
- Tutu Atwell: Counting on a gadget play or something happening with Kupp.
- Royce Freeman: One miscue from Rivers and Freeman will return to the backup role.
- Craig Reynolds: Returns kickoffs; 50/50 that he gets on the field for a snap or two without an injury to Gibbs or Montgomery.
- Austin Trammell: Main kick returner for Los Angeles, so he will likely be active, though Nacua (punts) or Williams (kickoffs) could handle those duties if the Rams need this roster slot for depth at another position.
- Ben Skowronek, Antoine Greene, Jason Cabinda, Tyler Johnson and Brycen Hopkins: Need a surprise scratch to see this motley crew move off this line. A couple will likely be inactive, so the rest could see the field, but a collective 2.5 looks seems appropriate, so an in-game injury would be needed to spring one loose.
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