We have reached Players Championship week! With the first Milly Maker of the year up for grabs, along with numerous other elevated prize pools, this is always one of my favorite events of the season. As always, TPC Sawgrass will provide a very difficult challenge as players try to navigate the abundance of hazards awaiting any poorly struck shot. This course is a ball-striker’s paradise, requiring pinpoint accuracy both off the tee and on approach into these well-protected greens. Let’s get started with our core plays and PGA DFS picks for the 2024 Players Championship that the Sims tool helped me identify.
Due to the difficult layout, this tournament provides a great opportunity to leverage game theory. Any great round can be derailed by one bad swing at TPC Sawgrass. In my opinion, this is the perfect time to try out our PGA Sims tool, which does a lot of the game theory work for you. Our proprietary shot-by-shot simulation software provides a massive edge on weeks like this. Last week the sim tool produced numerous winners amongst the Stokastic community.
Scottie Scheffler headlines the field and is the top projected golfer by a hefty margin. DraftKings did a good job of pricing him appropriately, but he will still be a popular play. I won’t be featuring Scheffler in this article — you don’t need me to tell you how good he is. However, how you handle him will be a key decision point for how your rosters shape up. Outside of Scheffler, here are the golfers I’ll be building my lineups around this week.
These Players Championship core plays and picks will kickstart your PGA DFS process. You can perfect it by reading through Stokastic’s fantasy point and ownership projections, finding high-leverage plays using the top golfers tool or using the PGA Sims tool to build several high-ROI lineups in seconds!
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Players Championship Core Plays: PGA DFS Picks
Collin Morikawa – $9,400
Widely considered one of the best ball strikers on tour, Collin Morikawa profiles extremely well for TPC Sawgrass. The thin fairways, water hazards, and strategically placed bunkers provide very difficult tee shots. With a driving accuracy north of 66% this year, I believe Morikawa will be able to navigate these shots effectively. Approach into greens also requires precision, which is where he will shine the most. Over the last 100 tracked rounds Morikawa ranks third in strokes gained on approach in this field and second in good drive percentage. Accuracy is the name of the game this week, so I’m taking a stand with one of the most accurate ball strikers in the field.
Russell Henley – $8,600
Another player known for his consistent accuracy, Russell Henley is a great fit for this golf course. Over the last calendar year, he has hit over 70% of fairways with his tee shots. He has also been playing some excellent golf of late, making the cut in 11 straight starts with 5 finishes inside the top 10. Coming off of a fourth-place finish last week at the very difficult layout of Bay Hill, his game appears to be in a great spot. To boot, he’s finished inside the top 20 in back-to-back years at this event. A lot of positive data points position Henley as a strong PGA DFS pick this week.
Sungjae Im – $8,400
It appears the industry as a whole is a lot lower on Sungjae Im than I am this week. With ownership projections floating around in the single digits, I could have classified him as my GPP flier. I understand the slow start to the year may be turning people off, but the sample size is very limited. Last week there were some signs that his ball striking may be coming into form, as he gained 1.9 strokes on approach on his way to an 18th-place finish.
He’s accurate enough off the tee, hitting better than 60% of his fairways, and is an excellent around-the-green player. He has made the cut in each of the last three years at this event, including a sixth-place finish just last year. At single-digit ownership, I think he’s going overlooked. As I said with Emiliano Grillo in last week’s article before his top-10 finish, I’d rather be early than late with these situations. Taking the chance on Sungjae Im this week makes a lot of sense.
PGA DFS Flier Pick for the PLAYERS Championship: Adam Scott – $7,600
Adam Scott isn’t the same player he was back in 2004 when he won this event, but he still provides plenty of intrigue and upside in the mid-$7,000 price range this week. Leading into last week’s event, he was on a streak of seven consecutive made cuts and four consecutive top-20 finishes. A single missed cut at Bay Hill now has him projected at single-digit ownership, which is oozing with value.
His lack of accuracy off the tee is the main sticking point here, and, admittedly, he does have me a bit concerned given how punishing wayward shots can be. However, he gained strokes on approach in every event he has played in this season. He’s also teed it up at this event in 20 consecutive years and has 10 finishes inside the top 20. He knows how to navigate this golf course. At $7,600, a top-15 finish would more than pay off his modest price tag. He’s worth the gamble this week at single-digit ownership.
