With our Valspar Championship DFS picks, we continue our PGA DFS series and wrap up the Florida Swing, now making its fourth and final stop. This week’s event takes place at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook in Palm Harbor, Florida. The field faces some of the longest and most challenging Par 3s on tour, along with narrow, tree-lined fairways—offering a unique test compared to the typical Florida layout. Let’s dive into my DFS picks and core plays for the Valspar Championship.
Course Preview
The Copperhead Course is a Par 71, stretching 7,352 yards. As mentioned, it features five challenging Par 3s, each measuring at least 195 yards. The four Par 5s will also test players, often requiring approach shots from 175+ yards. Designed by Larry Packard, this course stands out in Florida with its unique elevation changes and Bermudagrass greens.
Given these factors, I’ll be prioritizing Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, proximity on approach shots from 175-200 yards, efficiency on Par 3s, as well as Strokes Gained: Putting.
Using the Stokastic PGA Sims Tool, I’ve highlighted the top plays for this week below. Our hole-by-hole simulations evaluate each golfer’s potential outcome, combined with PGA DFS projections. By running simulations of lineups tens of thousands of times, we can pinpoint the top plays. Naturally, the players who appear most frequently in the highest-ROI lineups are the ones I focus on for my portfolio. The Sims Tool is crucial to my weekly DFS strategy, and I highly recommend it for anyone looking to advance their DFS game.
Let’s dive into the core players I will be building my lineups around this week on DraftKings
PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship DFS Picks & Core Plays
PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship DFS Picks & Core Plays: Tommy Fleetwood – $10,300
Still seeking his first PGA Tour victory – perhaps it can finally come this weekend for the 34-year old Englishman.
He enters the tournament as one of the favorites and also ranks atop Stokastic’s optimal percentage list—the rate at which he appears in the optimal lineup based on our simulations.
The 9th-ranked player in the world finished T-14 at the Players last weekend, T-11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and T-5 at The Genesis Invitational in February. His form this year has been incredible, and I expect that to carry over into the Valspar Championship.
As mentioned, approach play is crucial at this course, and Fleetwood ranks 1st among this field in SG: Approach. He’s played here twice before: finishing T-16 in 2022 and T-3 in 2023. He’ll be a popular pick, but he’s one I don’t want to miss out on. Could this finally be his weekend?
Lucas Glover – $8,800
Speaking of recent form, Lucas Glover is a player who stands out. He finished T-3 at The Players and also T-3 at Pebble Beach earlier this season.
He’s played 66 rounds at this course, including an 11th-place finish last year and a +0.75 True Strokes Gained mark.
Among this group of players, Glover ranks 5th in Driving Accuracy, 9th in SG: Total, and 18th in SG: Approach over his last 40 rounds. Additionally, he sits 2nd on tour in Par 3 Birdie or Better Leaders this season at 25.93%. If he can continue this form into the weekend, Glover could make some serious noise.
Stokastic’s optimal percentage list places him 3rd, and he offers some leverage compared to his projected field ownership at just 10.5%.
PGA DFS Picks; Valspar Championship DFS Core Plays: Kurt Kitayama – $7,600
It’s been a rough season for Kurt Kitayama, missing the cut in 3 of his 5 appearances. However, he may carry some momentum into this weekend after a T-33 finish and a final round score of 66 at The Players.
Kitayama ranks 3rd in Average Proximity Gained from 200+ yards and 4th from 175-200 yards over his last 36 rounds.
Additionally, among this field, he sits 10th in SG: Approach, 16th in SG: Off the Tee, and 17th in Driving Distance. His putting remains a concern, but if he can stay consistent with his approach shots, I believe he can produce a strong performance over the weekend. He’s a player who’s getting a bit overlooked, and understandably so, but perhaps he can prove to be a sneaky selection.
GPP Flier: Nico Echavarria – $6,800
Can Echavarria be the dark horse contender we’re looking for? Perhaps. He ranks 7th in SG: Putting and 25th in Driving Accuracy. In SG: Total, he sits 29th among this week’s contenders. Additionally, he’s 4th in Par 3 Birdie or Better Leaders (21.88%) on tour this year.
His best finish in 2025 so far was a T-34 at The Genesis Invitational. He’s shown signs that he can compete with the top players, and hopefully, he can do so at the Valspar Championship.
Stokastic’s ownership projections forecast him at under 1%. Let’s take a flier on the 30-year-old and hope his putting and Par 3 efficiency carry him through the weekend.
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