The PGA Tour heads south of the border this week with the Mexico Open set to begin. Nonetheless, it’s time to continue our PGA DFS picks series by using the latest data and information to relay some Mexico Open DFS picks!
We’ve had a string of some marquee events, and with it came the elites on tour, especially at last week’s elevated event in the Genesis Invitational. This field isn’t quite up to that standard, but from a DFS standpoint we have almost double the number of players to choose from. In addition, we have salaries dipping into the 5k range which is atypical on DraftKings. Figuring out some value plays is going to be key to having success this week.
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PGA DFS Picks: Top Values for the Mexico Open (2024)
PGA DFS: Mexico Open Tournament Preview
Before we dive into a few DFS values it’s important to know what type of course we are trying to break down at this week’s layout. Players will be tested with a Par 71 nearly 7,500-yard Vidanta Vallarta course that we’ve seen the last few years. From what we can tell it’s a week for the bombers with generous fairways and plenty of incentive to be aggressive off the tee. Previous winners include this week’s tourney favorite, Tony Finau, and Jon Rahm. Both are world-class players, so I wouldn’t draw a ton into this, but it still helps us try and get insight into the types of players we want to target.
In terms of skillset I’ll be looking for those powerful off-the-tee players that we already discussed, and being able to go low doesn’t hurt either. With salary savers being able to make the weekend and then outscore your placement points are two absolutely key metrics when trying to return value on a roster spot. Here are a few names in the lower salary ranges that I have in the pool and think set up nicely this week.
PGA DFS Picks: Mexico Open DFS Picks Top Values
Jhonattan Vegas
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,600
FanDuel: $9,500
Current Projection
DraftKings: 69.16
FanDuel: 70.58
Not a complete dumpster dive, but still targeting a mid-7k player can benefit the rest of your lineup. Vegas is a guy who has a ton of experience playing and competing on tour, but lately, the game hasn’t been in good shape. That seemed to change last time out at Waste Management where he broke a missed cut streak of 5 consecutive events with a respectable 22nd-place finish.
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Seeing a flash of form is always nice before rostering a player, but the skillset is really what has me interested. Vegas absolutely mashes off the tee and that is something I think can really help you separate at this track. When he isn’t ice-cold with the putter, he can be effective at times, and that’s always a dice roll when targeting values in DFS. Looking at the data, Vegas also grades out as one of the best leverage plays on the entire slate, which furthers my interest in him. Given the ball striking looked on point in the desert and his reasonable tag, I like Vegas as a nice lower mid-range play this week
Take a look at this free lineup built using Stokastic’s PGA lineup generator. You’ll see one of Ben’s value picks, Jhonattan Vegas, popping as a great differentiator in this contrarian lineup. To start generating your own PGA DFS lineups with the help of our tools, sign up today!
Tyler Duncan
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6900
FanDuel: $8,800
Current Projection
DraftKings: 65.12
FanDuel: 66.06
We dip into the 6k range here but just barely with Tyler Duncan as another value target. Like Vegas, he is showing some favorable numbers in the Stokastic data, and it’s easy to see why when you dig more into his game. Duncan, like most of these players, doesn’t come with much safety but certainly brings a big range of outcomes. He made the cut at Waste Management and dating back to swing season actually has found the weekend in four of his last five including a third at RSM. Now that layout and this are completely different, but Duncan still brings some upside to your roster.
Skill-set-wise, Duncan is a little all over the map with hot and cold spells on the greens. That’s not overly unusual, and lately, the off-the-tee game has been consistently positive, which is step one this week. Seeing Duncan in the 6k range on DraftKings and the 8k range on FanDuel isn’t unusual, but with a weak field, it’s a more favorable price than usual. This is another guy I’ll look at to round out lineups and with the right combination of driving and putting he could surprise this week.
Matthew NeSmith
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6200
FanDuel: $7,800
Current Projection
DraftKings: 60.24
FanDuel: 60.80
We dip even lower now to a true punt play in Matthew NeSmith. I’m sure many of my lineups won’t need to even dip into the lower 6k range, but given the field, we must be on the lookout here for any potential value. It’s hard to imagine NeSmith getting more than 3-5% ownership given where he is at, which means this will help really differentiate our lineups.
Let’s start with the positive for NeSmith — more often than, not he gives you four rounds. That’s always step one with a cut line, and he has found the weekend in 7 of the last 8 events dating back to late 2023. Now as encouraging as that is the lack of finishing upside has been a concern with several of those starts resulting in a 50th or worse type showing.
Still, NeSmith can rack up birdies, and right now, the strokes gained data is a little all over the map. If NeSmith can just tighten up the irons, which have been off in recent events, he should once again find the weekend and possibly climb up the board. At $6,200 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel, Ne Smith is a clear salary -saving play that opens up the rest of your lineup for some spend-up options.
Stokastic’s PGA Tools & Expert Advice
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