With our Players Championship DFS picks, we continue our PGA DFS series and the Florida Swing, now making its third stop. This week’s event, often referred to as the “Fifth Major,” takes place at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The 144-player field will navigate a challenging layout filled with hazards on this demanding positional course. Let’s get into my DFS picks and core plays for the Players Championship.
Course Preview
TPC Sawgrass is a par 72, stretching around 7,350 yards, with water hazards coming into play on 17 of the 18 holes. The course recently added yardage, making the already narrow fairways and thick rough even more challenging to navigate.
This Pete Dye-designed course is highly positional, forcing players to carefully plan each shot to avoid constant hazards and navigate the smaller Bermudagrass greens efficiently. Last year, Scottie Scheffler joined Tiger Woods and Davis Love III as the only repear winner in The Player’s history in the previous 30 years. Evidently, this is one of the more volatile events on tour.
Given these factors, I’ll be prioritizing Good Driving Percentage, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Tee to Green and SG: Approach.
Using the Stokastic PGA Sims Tool, I’ve highlighted the top plays for this week below. Our hole-by-hole simulations evaluate each golfer’s potential outcome, combined with PGA DFS projections. By running simulations of lineups tens of thousands of times, we can pinpoint the top plays. Naturally, the players who appear most frequently in the highest-ROI lineups are the ones I focus on for my portfolio. The Sims Tool is crucial to my weekly DFS strategy, and I highly recommend it for anyone looking to advance their DFS game.
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Let’s dive into the core players I will be building my lineups around this week on DraftKings.
PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship DFS Picks & Core Plays
PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship DFS Picks & Core Plays: Xander Schauffele – $11,100
Despite a disappointing finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I’m going back to the well with Schauffele this week. Over his last 36 rounds, he ranks 5th in Total Strokes Gained among the current field, 7th in SG: T2G, and 10th in SG: APP.
TPC Sawgrass is a course where avoiding bogeys—especially down the final three-hole stretch—is crucial. Last season, Schauffele led the PGA Tour in Bogey Avoidance (9.44%) and Scrambling (70.73%), both key indicators for success here.
He’s also shown promise at TPC Sawgrass. While he’s missed the cut three times in 19 rounds, he’s found his rhythm recently, finishing 19th two years ago and tying for 2nd last year. His True Strokes Gained at this course sits at an impressive +1.88.
Schauffele currently holds the highest leverage mark (10.3%) and optimal percentage (21.3%) in Stokastic’s DraftKings projections, making him one of the most appealing spend-up plays on this slate.
Hideki Matsuyama – $9,900
Following Schauffele in last season’s Scrambling rankings was Hideki Matsuyama. However, he currently leads the PGA Tour in that category this season—a strong indicator heading into this tournament.
Matsuyama has also been in solid form, ranking 9th in SG: Total, 13th in SG: T2G, 22nd in SG: APP, and 2nd in SG: ARG over his last 36 rounds.
Looking specifically at this field, among players with at least six rounds at TPC Sawgrass, Matsuyama trails only Scottie Scheffler in True Strokes Gained (+2.40). He even set the course record with an opening-round 63 in 2020 before the event was canceled due to COVID-19.
Since 2019, Matsuyama has recorded three Top-10 finishes at The Players, including 5th place in 2023 and T-6 in 2024. He thrives at this course, and I’m banking on another strong performance this week.
PGA DFS Picks; The Players Championship DFS Core Plays: Aaron Rai – $7,100
A bit further down the list, Aaron Rai presents solid value. While watching him play might not be the most pleasant experience, rostering him in DFS can have the opposite effect.
Rai has played eight rounds at TPC Sawgrass over the last two years, finishing T-19 and T-35. His True Strokes Gained at this course sits at +1.60, showing he’s more than capable of competing here.
In 2024, Rai led the PGA Tour in Good Drive Percentage, finding a “Good Drive” 87.73% of the time. This season, he ranks 7th at 87.66%, maintaining quality accuracy off the tee. That precision, combined with his strong iron play—he finished 7th in SG: APP last season—makes him a strong fit for TPC Sawgrass.
GPP Flier: Doug Ghim – $5,600
Speaking of Good Driving, our next pick fits the bill. My fellow hometown native (shoutout to Arlington Heights, IL) Doug Ghim, ranks 12th this season in Good Drive Percentage (86.69%), after finishing 7th in 2024 (86.25%).
Over his last 50 rounds, Ghim sits 14th in SG: APP and 17th in SG: T2G. He’s coming off a solid T-11 finish at the Cognizant Classic and has a strong track record at TPC Sawgrass, with finishes of T-29 (2021), T-6 (2022), and T-16 (2024). His True Strokes Gained here is +1.44.
Ghim has been sneaking up leaderboards over the past couple of seasons, proving he has the framework to contend. At the very least, let’s hope he strings together four solid rounds to boost our DFS lineups at this bargain price.
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